Wednesday, 11 September 2013

Chinese blessing

A report in The Times of today carries the best news the new Labour government has come up with in its 6 month long tenure so far:

"State-owned China Power Investments is to inject millions of euros into cash -strapped Enemalta and become a minority shareholder.
A memorandum of understanding signed today between Malta and China provides for the Chinese energy firm to inject 'tens of millions' into Enemalta, which has a debt of €800 million.
Reliable sources close to the Maltese Government told timesomalta.com that around €200 million will go to reduce the corporation's debt.
The announcement was made today following a meeting between Prime Minister Joseph Muscat and his Chinese counterpart Li Keqiang in the Chinese city of Dalian, which is hosting the Annual Meeting of World Champions organized by the World Economic Forum."
China has a strong balance of payments surplus and countries in the developed and developing world make strenuous efforts to lure Chinese investment.    The US government would have serious difficulty to finance its budget deficit if the Chinese were not active buyers of US Treasuries and US dollar interest rates will c shoot up if China were to withdraw from investing in the US.

So Chinese investment in Enemalta is more than welcome.

For me the benefit and blessing of such investment goes beyond the headlines and the popular comments in the blogs.

The benefit is that with a minority shareholder of substance within Enemalta who can provide much needed external equity capital, the Corporation will be set on a serious road to recover its financial sanity.   Minority shareholders will impose discipline of governance and efficiency and Enemalta will no longer be perceived as a government corporation with a big daddy always ready with the cheque book to pay for its inefficiency.

Furthermore the news that:

"The agreement which is set to be finalised in six months' time also includes the setting up of a joint venture company in Malta specialising in the manufacture of photovoltaic panels with the objective being to enter the lucrative EU market."
and that

"In return the Chinese company as well as its subsidiary Shanghai Electric Power will be able to service its plants in Europe by calling upon the expertise of Enemalta employees."
means that Enemalta will have an avenue to re-deploy productively its surplus employees into export activities capable of making a significant contribution to new sources of economic growth.

There is no denying that the agreements, apart from aspects of political co-operation and nostalgia between the respective governments,  have  dimension of strong mutual economic benefit.   For Malta it is much needed foreign direct investment.  For China it is a smart and inexpensive way to penetrate EU markets with an investment which by China standards is pretty negligible but by Malta's standards is huge.

Welcome.

Sunday, 8 September 2013

Time to shape up


This article was published in The Malta Independent on Sunday - 08 September 2013


Six months ago almost to the day, the PN got an electoral blow of unprecedented proportions.  Not only did they lose the election with a margin beyond their most horrifying dreams, but they were forced to admit that the party was in a deep financial mess, unable to pay its most basic commitments and basically needing a top to bottom makeover.



This rotten state was more than confirmed last Sunday when the party’s new General Secretary issued a brief statement saying that the last election campaign cost the PN just under €2.2 million which was €368 k short of revenue collected to fund the campaign.
It is symptomatic of the no-value-for-money metrics with which they were running the country. How could such a flat, disjointed and ineffective campaign cost the PN more than two million euro? It is a carbon copy of the state of the country they left behind with high debt level and poor infrastructure as reflected by the energy supply, road network and public transport.
The country needs a strong and effective Opposition. The government needs it too to remain faithful to its mandate, without getting too comfortable in their seats and remembering that the electorate retains a democratic choice.
Unfortunately, the evidence so far is that in spite of a total change in the leadership and administration line-up, the disastrous mind-set that led to the electoral defeat is too ossified to accept the new reality and shape up for the challenges ahead.
The performance of the Opposition in the Public Accounts Committee (PAC) when questioning the Auditor General on the Enemalta report is shocking. It was an outright assault on the institution of the National Audit Office (NAO) and had a clear objective of trying to discredit the NAO in order to gain cover for the gross faults of ex-PN Minister responsible for Enemalta between 2004 and 2011. The performance of the PN’s members on the PAC was so grossly out of order that at one stage it elicited from government’s members on the PAC a sin of reaction.  They made an equally wrong demand from the Auditor General to confirm corruption on the part of whoever was responsible for running the Fuel Procurement Committee (FPC) at Enemalta and of those that appointed them.
The Auditor General admirably stood his ground against both affronts.   The purpose of the NAO report was not to prove or disprove corruption.  It was to prove that the FPC was operating without even the most basic standards of governance and that documentation and records were so lacking and deficient that the whole fuel procurement process is basically incapable of being subjected to a proper audit.
Is it so hard for the PN to realise that having already paid the price at the last election for the faults of their ex-ministers, further efforts to defend the indefensible can only lead to their having to pay the bill over and over again?
The PN should move on. The election is some five years away. Simon Busuttil should borrow a leaf from Alfred Sant’s performance as Leader of the Opposition between 1992 and 1996 which led to his unexpected election victory. For the first three to four years of that legislature, Alfred Sant’s focus was inward looking, seeking to refresh the Labour Party, new headquarters and all, to face the challenges of the future. Sant did not waste energy and resources trying to defend the past.
What sense does it make to blow cases of administrative slip-ups, which can be written-off to inexperience on the part of any new administration, beyond all reasonable limits? Have the police never accused the wrong culprit? Does it really make sense to try to discredit the Police Board headed by a retired Judge even if the Opposition does not agree with its findings, which incidentally I find logical and sensible? Was the police catering unit set-up on 9 March? Have Secret Service appointments always been approved without the Minister’s nod even if not sitting at the interview process?
Why do I find the Police Board report logical and sensible you might ask?  In my area of expertise, if an operator makes a profit by operating outside the rules and another makes a loss by operating within the rules, you discipline the one who operated outside the rules and give whatever assistance is necessary to the operator who plays by the rules to improve performance, which in any case cannot and should not be judged by a single event.
It is all a matter of objectives. It seems that the PN have set their objective to denigrate whatever the government does so that they get elected by default. It does not work that way. Such an approach is diabolical persistence in the mind-set that the PN have a God-given right to govern this country, that Labourites are children of a lesser god and the electorate was grossly mistaken in voting the PN out six months ago and should not miss the first opportunity that comes along to correct their mistake.
The PN should set as their primary objective the rebirth of the party and accept that such a clear electoral verdict cannot be questioned - it has to be accepted without reservation. The decision to shift the party independence activities from the eve to the national day proper is a further sign that the PN have not yet understood what the electorate voted for last March.
Another re-birth is needed in economic policy thinking. As Europe struggles through the sixth year of recession, as recovery is proving slow and inconsistent, and as many countries are grappling with atrocious levels of unemployment especially among the under 25s, we must ask ourselves what changes are needed to the traditional tools of economic policy.
Fiscal policy has lost its effectiveness. Many countries have no fiscal space to manage demand levels in their economy. But we must ask ourselves whether it makes sense to be so rigid with 3% of GDP or similar limits without making any distinction between deficit caused by excessive consumption and deficit caused by financing of productive infrastructure investment.  
Monetary policy has been overused to make up for the deficiency in fiscal policy. But we are finding out that beyond a certain limit, excessive doses of monetary accommodation have the same effect of ‘pushing on a string’ explained by Keynes in the General Theory. Worse still, excessive monetary accommodation is economic uncharted territory. It could render its timely reversal destabilising and worse still, if such timely reversal fails, it risks sowing the seeds for future inflation.
And if fiscal and monetary policies have lost their effectiveness as the primary tools of economic management, what tools are left for economic managers to increase the potential productive capacities of their economies and restore economic growth to pre-crisis levels?
Probably it’s time to go to basics. It is time to bypass policies and act directly on the real economy. It’s time to ensure that banks in the euro area are re-capitalised, if necessary through the European Stability Mechanism and monetisation by the ECB, to start acting as banks and give credit to businesses and SMEs that are the real creators of new employment opportunities.  
It’s time for government to accelerate the regeneration of productive infrastructure irrespective of artificial budget limits. Good investment invariably repays itself through economic growth. It’s time for structural reform to be accelerated with further liberalisation of the product and services market, with added incentives for labour mobility throughout the EU and with countries in distress being aided through a Marshall Plan type of investment assistance for upgrading their education levels and fiscal enforcement systems. It’s time to think outside the box to get rid of this never-ending recession. 
The EU must focus once again on the Lisbon agenda, which has been forgotten or abandoned as the bloc has been consumed by endless fire fighting the crisis.

Friday, 6 September 2013

Complex issues have no quick fixes

Syria

Put on your day dreaming cap.   Let's assume that Bashar Assad wakes up next morning after a sleepless night with guilt of conscience for so much blood on his hands, and he agrees to resign and give himself up for fair trial at the ICJ at The Hague.

Assume this will greeted with a big sigh of relief world-wide that another bad guy has been taken out, that military action in Syria is no longer necessary and the Syrians may be allowed to decide their country's future without foreign interference.

What would happen to Syria as it is left with a power vacuum?   The experience of Egypt and Libya may be indicative.

The removal of a despot often creates a bigger problem than it solves.    The ideal would be that the vacuum would be filled by an effective system of democracy leading not only to free elections but to a participative democracy in full regard to minority rights.    But democratic culture roots slowly and in its infancy it is often quashed by bigger forces who are not prepared to wait to play the democratic game in order to get their seat of power.

The vacuum could be filled by extremists, fundamentalists or downright terrorists.  Sometimes it is better the devil you know.

German elections

The one and only direct debate between the major contenders has come and gone.   

Although the SPD pretender Pier Steinbrueck has been generally  awarded a narrow win on points, it was no blow out punch  and certainly not enough to erode the wide margin that incumbent Merkel has in the polls.

It is symptomatic of the general apathy of the electorates that the media paid more attention to the necklace with the national colours that Merkel wore than to the real arguments of the debate.

But at least Steinbrueck had the courage to  accuse Merkel of causing misery by imposing austerity on southern Europe.

"I would have followed a different crisis strategy. Of course there must be budget consolidation in these countries, but not a deadly dose," he said."Germany once got help too and we must not forget that. Germany was massively helped after the Second World War with the Marshall Plan."
Yeah Yeah Steinbruek!!   You would have got my vote if I had one.  I was not impressed by Merkel's necklace.

Economic policy

To taper or not to taper!!  That is the dominant argument in the US about the next steps in monetary policy.   I am sorry but we are really missing the wood for the trees.

Fiscal policy has lost its effectiveness.   Many countries have no fiscal space to manage demand levels in their economy.    But we must ask ourselves whether it makes sense to be so rigid with 3% of GDP or similar limits without making any distinction between deficit caused by excessive consumption and deficit caused by financing of productive infrastructure investment.  
Monetary policy has been overused to make up for the deficiency in fiscal policy.    But we are finding out that beyond a certain limit excessive doses of monetary accommodation have the same effect of ‘pushing on a string’ explained by Keynes in the General Theory.    Worse still excessive monetary accommodation is economic uncharted territory.  It could render its timely reversal destabilising and worse still, if such timely reversal fails, it risks sowing the seeds for future inflation.

And if fiscal and monetary policies have lost their effectiveness as the primary tools of economic management, what tools are left for economic managers to increase the potential productive capacities of their economies and restore economic growth to pre-crisis levels?
Probably it’s time to go to basics.   It is time to do the real economic restructure needed and to undertake the infrastructure investments  to increase the growth capacity of economies.   Rather than how much you spend it is more a case of how well you spend it.

I would rather have a 5% deficit to finance infrastructure investment that generates true economic growth rather than a 3% deficit that leaves infrastructure deficiency unaddressed while scoring political points to boost unsustainable consumption.