Azzjoni jew re-Azzjoni

Il-Kullhadd 

 

Taghmel differenza kbira ghal partit politiku jekk l-istrategija tieghu jwettaqix fuq bazi ta’ azzjoni jew re-azzjoni.

Kull partit politiku jfittex li biex ikollu success ha jilhaq l-ghanijiet tieghu jipprova jiddomina l-agenda tal-pajjiz billi jmexxi fuq bazi ta’ azzjoni u mhux joqghod jirrejagixxi ghal dak li jghid haddiehor.

Wara telfa elettorali il-Partit Laburista qed jithabat biex iwettaq din l-istrategija. Filwaqt li huwa bzonnjuz u essenzjali li nanalizzaw u niflu ghaliex is-success tant mixtieq u mwieghed ma rrizultax fl-ahhar elezzjoni, ma rridux inhallu spazji biex l-agenda tal-pajjiz jaghmilha haddiehor.

Huwa ghalhekk f’waqtu li meta l-gvern qed kull ma jmur jigi dahru mal-hajt, hekk kif johorgu fatti u figuri li jhammrulu wiccu u jigi stabbilit dejjem aktar car kemm il-partit nazzjonalista ma kienx jixraqlu li jerga jiehu l-gvern, il-Partit Laburista jrid juru ruhu oppozizzjoni attiva li tiddefendi l-interessi tal-pajjiz u l-aktar tal-haddiema. Ghalhekk filwaqt li l-Partit Laburista ghandu jiehu mertu talli dejjem spjega car u bla habi il-qaghda kritika tal-finanzi u l-ekonomija tal-pajjiz, huwa wkoll mehtieg li bhala oppozizzjoni serja l-Partit Laburista jkun parti mis-soluzzjoni tal-problema li qed tifni l-pajjiz.

Fl-istess hin izda l-Partit ma jridx jibqa’ lura milli jiftah lilu nnifsu biex bil-galbu u bla habi jara ghaliex ma gbidnix warajna magguranza qawwija fl-ahhar elezzjoni minkejja li l-poplu kien imwissi car u tond dwar il-mod irresponsabbli u perikoluz li l-gvern nazzjonalista kien qed imexxi il-finanzi u l-ekonomija tal-pajjiz.

Bla ma nizvijaw l-agenda nazzjonali milli nuru lill-gvern gharwien quddiem il-poplu bil-weghdiet li saru qabel l-elezzjoni, ma rridux li nahbu l-analizi tar-rizultat ta’ l-elezzjoni biex ma nhallux lin-nazzjonalisti jikkritikawna.

Fl-ewwel sena wara l-elezzjoni il-partit tellief bilfors irid jaghmel ezami tal-kuxjenza sewwa. U dan ma jistax isir bejn erba’ minn nies. Minn ta’ lanqas irid jasal sal-livell tal-konferenza generali fejn kwazi elf delegat jiehdu l-aktar decizjonijiet importanti tal-Partit. Jiddeciedu il-policies principali, jaghzlu l-leadership u japprovaw il-programm elettorali u l-kandidati.

Ghalhekk nifimha li huwa dover li l-analizi tar-rizultat ta’ l-elezzjoni tasal s’ghand id-delegati tal-konferenza generali biex dawn ikunu jistghu jiehdu decizjonijiet importanti li mistennija minnhom b’mod infurmat.

U hawn iqum il-punt li huwa impossibbli li dokument intern jistqassam ma kwazi elf ruh u jibqa’ intern. Ghalhekk trid taghzel. Jew jibqa intern u jarawh ftit hafna b’mod li d-delegati jigu kostretti jivvutaw bla ma jkunu infurmati jew jitqassam sewwa u ma jibqax intern.

Jien bil-wisq nippreferi t-tieni wahda. L-izvantagg li dokument intern jispicca esternalizzat huwa bil-wisq anqas mill-izvantagg li d-delegati jigu biex jiddeciedu fil-ghama.

Nhoss li ghandna wisq sensittivita’ dwar dak li jghidu nazzjonalisti u l-media ta’ kontrina. Filwaqt li dan naghtu kasu, ma nistghux noqghodu nirrejagixxu ghal kritika ta’ haddiehor. L-agenda taghna naghmluha ahna. Naghmlu dak li jaqbel lilna, dak li jaqbel lill-partit u haddiehor jghid li jrid. Ibqghu zguri li l-kritika ta’ l-avversarji ma ssirx ghax iriduna ahjar. Issir biex taghmlilna l-hsara u ghalhekk ma ghandnix natuha importanza zejda, tant li nieqfu milli naghmlu affarijiet kif inhuma fl-interess taghna biex ma jikkritikawnix l-ohrajn.

Kemm il-darba esperjenzajtha din. Jekk issir kritika u nazzjonalisti ma jghidu xejn allura ma gara xejn. Jekk in-nazzjonalisti jesponuha allura qishom gibdulna l-ispaga u noqomsu. Flok niggudikaw il-kritika fuq il-merti taghha niggudikaw fuq kif jirrejagixxu n-nazzjonalisti. Kien hawn min sahansitra ghadda l-gudizzju bla ma qara l-original u qaghad fuq x’qalu ta’ kontrina.

Dan zball. L-agenda taghna naghmluha ahna. Irridu nagixxu u mhux nirrejagixxu. Naghmlu li hemm bzonn specjalment fi zmien daqstant il-boghod mill-elezzjoni u mhux naghtu importanza sproporzjonata lil media u lil kritika avversarja. Fuq kollox filwaqt li l-media ghandha l-influwenza taghha ma rridux nassumu li l-media kollox u li bla parita’ fil-media ma nirbhux. Inkella tista tghid li ma ghandna cans qatt nirbhu elezzjoni ghax ir-rizorsi taghna qatt m’huma se jlahhqu mal-partit tas-sinjuri.

L-izvantagg li ghandna u jibqa’ jkollna fil-media irridu naghmlu tajjeb ghalih b’policies tajba, policies cari , policies li jinfdu l-qalb u l-mohh ta’ l-elettorat ghax biex tirbah trid kontenuit tajjeb l-ewwel u media effettiva t-tieni.

Ghalhekk nhoss li f’dan iz-zmien ta’analizi, zmien ta’ riflessjoni, zmien ta’ hsieb mil-gdid ta’ stratetiji li la jigu maghzula jifdal mill-anqas erba snin biex jitwasslu u jikkonvincu sa elezzjoni ohra, hemm bzonn ta’ aktar spazju ghall-analizi, ghal hsieb ta’ min ma jaqbilx f’kollox, u zgur ma naqbilx li din ticcahhad lid-delegati li fl-ahhar mill-ahhar permezz tal-Konferenza Generali ghandhom ir-responsabbilta’ ta’ l-ahhar ghazla.

A Perverse Feeling

The Malta Independent 

A perverse feeling started creeping inside me this week which almost made me feel ashamed of myself. For the first time in more than four months I almost started feeling good that Labour was not elected.

Just imagine if Labour were in power and we start getting the sort of news we have been getting recently extended this week by the downgrade of our sovereign domestic credit rating by Standard & Poor’s.

Just imagine if a Labour government would announce that the fiscal deficit would be in excess of 7% of the GDP rather than the planned 4.5%. Imagine if a new Labour government were to announce that the public health system is in crisis and that the system was so unsustainable that many free services will have to be subjected to (subject to means testing) payment.

Imagine if Standard & Poor’s were to announce a sovereign downgrade 4 months into the life of a new Labour government. Imagine if a Labour government were to be forced to eat humble pie and re-open, purely as a fiscal crisis revenue boosting measure, an Investment Registration Scheme which ceremoniously was closed off as a once-only concession in December 2002.

Imagine if a Labour government delays the issue of social security payments to the most needful of society on the pretext that it has to weed out abusers thus making 999 sweat and hurt uselessly to track down the single abuser.

If this were to happen under a newly-elected Labour government we would undoubtedly have had a barrage of criticism from the PN in opposition and their friendly media that all this crisis owes it origin to the fact that the new government abandoned its plan for EU membership. And whilst we now know that it is no so, a new Labour government would have had a problem proving otherwise.

So yes, for the first time I have been entertaining an uncontrollable feeling that may be it is better this way. May be this is what the Maltese need to come to conclusion which a narrow segment of truly informed amongst us have long reached, i.e. that no foreign or external agents will solve problems for us; that we have to find the inner strength within us to address our weaknesses; that the most likely benefit of EU membership is not the bureaucracy or the prestige it involves, but the discipline to do what needs to be done without further excuses and procrastination.

If we had the Californian recall system there is no doubt that it could be used to re-write the script. With Labour belatedly but boldly accepting that the people’s choice for EU membership is superior to party policies and must be respected with determination and conviction, with our newly found knowledge that the economic situation was being misrepresented until the government could limp past the elections, with acceptance that EU membership on its own is no panacea and true solutions must come from within us, I have no doubt that the electorate would readily recall a Labour government to take us forward from this point on.

But sharing little with California, other than the Mediterranean weather and a mess in public finances, Malta is condemned to face this crisis with a fatigued government that has ran out of creative ideas and who is shamed to admit the problems and consequently keeps dangerously delaying the application of real though unpalatable solutions.

May be if it were possible for politicians to raise above themselves and act in a truly national interest as is required by the impending crisis, the government would readily admit the mess and offer the opposition a power/responsibility sharing arrangement in exchange for their disposition to join a national plan to render our economy competitive in a global world before we get buried beneath our perfectly made-in-Malta financial mess.  

The Evidence Mounts

Maltastar  

 

Two pieces of news in Monday morning’s papers continue to accumulate evidence of the crisis ruling the state of public finance.

‘Standard & Poor’s Agency lowers Malta’s local credit ratings’ was the headline news in this morning’s Times. Clearly S & P were unnerved by the data released after the election both regarding the final outturn for 2002 as well as interim results for 2003 up to June. All figures show a sharp adverse departure from previous predictions and bring to nought the assertions underpinning their previous rating that public finance was under control and getting better.

S&P have shown their irritation that it has already been conceded that this years’ budget deficit will be a far cry from the budgeted 4.6% of the GDP from the 5.2% of last year. The final outturn is expected to exceed 7% of GDP. S&P have also shown their concern at the speed with which public debt is accumulating and they forecast that public debt plus the Freeport guaranteed bond for USD250 million will on their own reach 73% of the GDP up from the 69% of 2001. The Maastricht criteria for Euro adoption puts a limit of 60% and candidates over this limit will only be admitted if they prove they are on a mend path not on a deteriorating trend as is our case.

In fact S&P spokesman was quite explicit. Apart from lowering the rating on local debt it warned of further downgrades as follows: “Failure to decisively address current trends in the fiscal deficit would undermine prospects of an early participation in EMU and weaken the government’s credit standing”

 

The Finance Minister was reported to have commented that there is a dire need for a change of mentality to convince people that the government does not provide money like money from heaven. The Minister added that a broad-based effort is needed to deal with the issue in an objective and national manner, rather than play out for the gallery.

What a difference a few months make! Just a few months back in a TV debate during the election campaign when I had made the same sort of criticism that S&P are now making, the Minister was over-flowing with confidence that all was well, that people can put their mind at rest and the manna from heaven would rain more plentifully once we re-elect him to power and once we join the EU.

I do certainly agree that the crisis is in such a deep measure that the government on its own cannot handle it, and needs all the help it can get in the national interest to avoid a painful financial collapse. But this should not exclude a full investigation on whether the government purposely misrepresented the state of public finance both when presenting the last budget in November 2002 as well as when in the election campaign in March/April 2003 it consistently re-assured us that public finance were in good shape and getting better.

The second piece of news which mounts the evidence of the crisis was found in The Malta Independent informing that tomorrow the government will announce the re-opening of the Investment Registration Scheme. This Scheme was closed last year when we were assured that it was a one-time only chance for people to regularise their income tax and exchange control infringements of their foreign investments by paying a once only amnesty fee.

Re-opening it so soon is nothing other than a crisis measure to tap some new sources of revenue in order to cushion the over-blown deficit of this year. In fact the budget had projected Lm6 million special revenues from ancillary but unexplained sources. Is this the source? Did the government plan to re-open the scheme when it was re-assuring all that that was a one-off exercise?

Portfolio

Strategy 1: No Risk Lm 1006.847
Strategy 2: Medium Risk Lm 1011.590 (after Lm40 charges)
Strategy 3: High Risk Lm Lm 1191.366 (after Lm20 charges)
Strategy 4 High Risk For Currency . Lm 1066.390 (after Lm40 charges)

All prices and rates of exchange are the latest available on Saturday 23rd August 2003.

All strategies continued to move forward but the biggest leap was registered in strategy 4 which is heavily weighted on foreign equities.

Strategy 3 which consists entirely of Maltacom’s equity also moved slightly ahead. But this strategy has made nearly 20% since 1st June when the portfolio was started and given some disappointment with Maltacom not moving to an interim dividend and their taking a full charge of a VAT claim which they are still defending ( such measure could in fact weaken their position in defending their claim before the VAT Appeals Board) I decided it is time for profit taking . I am encashing Strategy 3 and keeping Lm1191,366 less 1% encashment charge = Lm1180 in cash liquid form until I decide where to invest next in the coming few weeks.

No other changes were made to the portfolios.