Blair Bounces Back

The Malta Independent on Sunday

 

This time last year I had described Tony Blair, the British Prime Minister, as one of the major losers on the international scene of 2002, completely outshone by French President Jacques Chirac who dictated matters on the EU and international stage.

Specifically I had stated:

“The international personality who ought to consider 2002 as a personal disaster is UK Prime Minister Tony Blair. Humiliated by Chirac who edged him out of the tandem with German Chancellor Schroeder, Blair has been made to appear as the US lap-dog rather than the strategic link to co-ordinate the policies of the US and the EU. While Chirac has brought Schroeder to make huge concessions as Schroeder was still reeling from the fatigue of a bruising re-election campaign, coping with a rebuff from the US for German non-participation in the pressure of Iraq, and economic woes on the home front risking a recession or outright deflation in Germany, Blair lost the strategic support which he had taken for granted from left wing colleague Schroeder.

“On the domestic front Blair is seeing his re-election shine wearing off as the shield of protection of his PR machine is getting predictable and ineffective. Blair is also under pressure from the man next door at No. 11 Downing Street – Chancellor Gordon Brown. Brown is winning more support for his cool approach to Blair’s determination to take sterling into the euro as interest rates and the economic tempo of the UK and euro areas continue to diverge rather than converge for an eventual docking in.”
What a difference a year makes! Blair can look back with satisfaction that during 2003 his risky bets paid off handsomely and he can look forward with confidence to the electoral test that awaits him in 2005/2006.

It did not look like that for the most part of the year but the dividends came in December permitting Blair to have the last laugh on his critics.

On the international front Blair went against the current of the Franco/German tandem by supporting the US invasion of Iraq. While for most months following the successful military invasion, the UK Prime Minister seemed to be losing credibility through the unsuccessful search for WMDs upon which he had justified the war, December changed fortunes with a double whammy.

The capture of Saddam Hussein alive and capable of being put through the wheels of justice to answer for his atrocities against humanity has made the invasion of Iraq justified in public opinion independently of the existence or otherwise of WMDs. It has turned the cards on Chirac who is now seen a Chamberlain advocating appeasement to certified mass murderers.
Libya’s unilateral declaration of abandonment of WMDs and nuclear programmes, and its willingness to open itself up for inspections checks on good behaviour by the international community, came hot on the heels of the Saddam capture after months of secret diplomatic negotiations between UK and Libya. Blair could face the world stage waving the effectiveness of the carrot for countries like Libya who are determined to put the past behind them and use their natural wealth for the economic development of their own country and abandon all hopes of imposing a new world order through the endorsement of terrorism and abuse of human rights, and the stick for rulers like Hussein who remains defiant, possibly through miscalculation, that appeasers like Chirac will guarantee his survival by blocking UN sponsored military action.

Blair has scored successes on the EU front where Chirac and Schroder messed things up quite considerably. The failure of the Brussels summit to agree on a new EU Constitution can be pinned mostly back on Chirac for the way he had handled and dangerously compromised at the Nice summit in favour of France but at the expense of Community benefit. To remain at par with Germany he had conceded to Spain and Poland an overweight in voting rights which both are now defending as they based their home support for the enlargement on the acquisitions made at Nice.

But more than that Blair shone on the EU stage not just by default of France and Germany but also in his own right. He graduated from the perception of being a lap-dog of President Bush to a person who has considerable influence in shaping US foreign policy. He persuaded Bush to accelerate the transfer of internal self-rule to Iraqi citizens before writing up the country’s

Constitution and also persuaded the US to accept, with reservations, the creation of a separate EU military unit. France and Germany had to retreat from going their own way realising that an EU military unit without Britain would be meaningless and in the process gave the opportunity to Blair to shape this unit in a way which makes it a collaborator and not a competitor of Nato.

Even on the economic front Britain can boast of a performance much superior to that of the continental titans who were forced into the humiliation of breaking the euro growth and stability pact whose discipline they had themselves designed to protect the system from traditional fiscal abusers such as Belgium and Italy. The breaking of the rules in a high handed manner by France and Germany just before the Brussels summit set a very dim prospect for making the necessary compromises on the EU constitution.

Blair’s achievements gain significance when considered against the back-drop of substantial internal party dissent against his liberal policies that offend the traditional values of left wing party luminaries. But Blair could brush aside internal dissent by proving that it is only his policies that permitted Labour to regain the mainstream of British politics and send the Conservatives into disarray, forcing them to continue changing leaders with monotonous regularity.

What a contrast to Maltese Labour who seem well resigned and apparently enjoying its overlong stay in opposition, confirming the same leader who somehow fails to deliver even when the odds are well stacked in his favour. May 2004 force Maltese Labour to shake off its lethargy and reach out for a touch of Blair.