The month long war between
and Hizbollah is thankfully over. Whether it is a mere pause or a something
more permanent remains to be seen. Israel
It seems that in the twenty first century the nature of wars has changed. In a post cold war era, where everybody hoped for lasting peace and prosperity as countries switch more resources from defence related expenditure to economic growth investment, we are experience hot conventional wars but of a different kind.
It is no longer country against country, or a group of countries against another group of countries. It is guerrilla wars between countries and stateless organisations that subtly dominate proper states, like
and Afghanistan , rendering them as a threat to their neighbours. Lebanon
It started with 9/11. Nothing has been quite the same again since.
As a result the only super-power has been engaged in a war on terror. How does one make a war on an abstract like terror? Who will sign the surrender pact when and if terror is defeated? Can terror be defeated? Or is it the case that those we term terrorists are perceived by the stateless warring opponents as freedom fighters? Could the war on terror in fact be the best process for the recruitment of more terrorists, making such war impossible to win?
These considerations seem to have escaped the sole super-power when it was hurt in its core pride by the events of 9/11.
’s reaction was emotional but irrational and shortsighted. It spent the international sympathy and
political capital it earned in a bullying war against a country that had pretty
little or nothing to do with the events of 9/11. Rather than target Al Qaeda in their Afghan hideouts in accordance with a valid
mandate from the UN, it diverted its energies and military resources in the
occupation of America on very flimsy pretext and without proper cover of a UN
Rather than spend its political capital to grow
’s influence in a framework of multilateralism, the Bush administration wasted it in the
execution of pre-conceived plans to bring a regime change in
America in full denial tof the long held wisdom of
better- the-devil-you-know. Iraq
This mega mismanagement of the proper discharge of responsibilities that come with the package of being the world’s sole super-power has left the world with a power vacuum that is being filled by uncontrolled stateless organisations like Hizbollah and Al Qaeda. They have no embassies, no ministers and no seats in the UN. They are amorphous, take cover as sleeper, religious or charity cells within normal communities and are motivated to the point of suicide attacks mostly by their hate of what they perceive as western arrogance typified by
’s unreserved support for America even when the latter go beyond the provisions of UN resolutions in
the pursuit of their national security.
They are offended by the use of different weights for same measure when
Israel was invaded twice in twelve years for the similar
Now that the guns have stopped in
and Lebanon , is it true that Hizbollah has been
weakened? Is the fact that the UN
brokered ceasefire seems to be holding indicative that Hizbollah are in fact being disarmed? I doubt it.
A more likely scenario is that Hizbollah is now
shifting its resources to repairing the damaged infrastructure and help
dislocated people return to their homes.
In the process they engage more ‘freedom fighters’ and gain general
patronage in preparation for the next fighting round. Israel
proceeds relentlessly to nuclear capability it will be the second of
the three members forming the ‘axis of evil’
( Iran , North Korea and Iran ) who would have made the dubious grade. This will motivate other nations to harbour similar ambitions knowing that only non-nuclear
Iraq was effectively invaded.
For the nuclear capable countries it is at worst trade sanctions
discipline, which can hardly be expected to deliver regime
It is time for reflection. Can we afford the risk of proliferation of nuclear capability till it becomes accessible to stateless states, or terrorist organisations if you prefer? Or should we step back and realise that the only real solution is across the board nuclear disarmament in the entire region,
Can’t the world realise that like the Russians before them, Palestinians and Hizbollahs love their children too and would rather live in peace and resultant prosperity if their security could be guaranteed and differences addressed through diplomacy.
For this to happen these organisations cannot remain stateless. The fact that Hamas are now the elected government in
is a good opportunity to engage them in diplomacy for a two state
solution. Hizbollah must be forced to form part of
Palestine ’s military structure rather than continue to be a stateless state
within a state. Lebanon
Active diplomatic engagement by honest state and UN brokers is the best way to prevent another war and to protect the respective integrity of the various states in the region.
It is ironical that the traditional state is being squeezed from both sides. Stateless organisations are challenging the political and military authority of the state within its own borders. Globalisation on the other hand is rendering the state quite powerless on the economic front as it can no longer dictate the rules but can at best only manage internal change to adjust to the new rules of globalisation.
No wonder the future of the state is being brought into question as individual states are seeking to form alliances for wide multi state co-operation under the aegis of supranational organisations like the EU, NAFTA, and ASEAN.
This leads to the burning issue of
’s aspiration to gain accession to the EU. It is simplistic to argue that
Turkey should be refused entry, as it is not a European country with
typical Christian traditions. Should
we neglect the risk of Turkey becoming a failed state if the national unity achieved by its
European accession project is replaced by internal strife of the various
factions that make Turkey what it is today? No
matter how difficult, diplomatic engagement for
Turkey ’s distant accession into the EU must be kept going at all