The Malta Independent on Sunday
8th August 2004
We are 86 days away from the electoral contest for the most powerful, and responsible, political job in the world, the election for US President due on 2nd November.
Untypical for when an incumbent is running for re-election the polls are too close to call with Kerry showing a few percentage points lead but often within the sample statistical margin of error and definitely not large enough to say that the election outcome is set.
There are some curious points however which make me tip my balance of judgement in favour of the hypothesis that Kerry will carry.
Firstly it seems that the level of undecided voters is pretty low and consequently even a small percentage lead could be enough to set Kerry on the road to the White House. President Bush is the sort of guy you either love or hate. And there are quite a sizeable segment of the US electorate who have turned against Bush for the way he lost focus in the war on terror by going after Saddam rather than pursuing Al Qaeda. Many Americans had backed their President in the war on Iraq because it was imprinted in their mind, though never explicitly stated, that Saddam was in bed with Al Qaeda and was the hidden hand behind the 9/11 terrorist attacks.
These Americans, who feel having been cheated into the Iraq war by claims of non-existent weapons of mass destructions and Iraq`s unproven links with the Bin Laden organisation, will now vote against Bush rather than for Kerry.
Another reason why I am inclined to think that Kerry will carry is that the advantage Bush through control over the media is being eroded by two new methods with which the Kerry camp are spreading out their message.
Bush control over the media is an insult of the true spirit of the US democracy. For readers who are interested to deepen their knowledge on this subject I recommend a good read of a new book by John W Dean who was a Counsel to President Richard Nixon. It is aptly entitled `WORSE THAN WATERGATE ` The Secret Presidency of George W Bush`.
In this book Dean lists potential scandals of the Bush/Cheney administration where the media has protected Bush rather than the public`s right to know. A far cry from the way the media behaved in the case of Clinton`s sexual indiscretions. In summary these are:
Secrecy about Bush character issues in his younger days Secrecy surrounding Bush business conducts and privileges he received from foreign investors because he was the son of a Vice President/President. Secrecy about the true state of Cheney`s health and medical record. Secrecy on charges regarding Cheney`s past business conduct when he was Chairman of Halliburton. Halliburton were found guilty and fined for fraudulent accounting just recently, but somehow the then CEO now Vice-President was not brought into the matter. Bush`s decision to overturn a law with an executive order regarding Presidential Records Act which could have exposed wrong-doing during the Reagan and Bush Snr. presidency by some who are still running the White House corridors. Extraordinary secrecy regarding the development of a national energy policy that benefited large contributors to Bush presidential campaign. Failed efforts to block an independent 9/11 enquiry Misleading Congress regarding the imminence and seriousness of the threat from Iraq when seeking endorsement for his War on Iraq policy. Wilful leaking of Ambassador Wilson`s wife being a CIA agent to punish Ambassador Wilson for exposing that President Bush knew, when he told Congress about evidence of Iraq`s attempt to obtain uranium from Niger, that no such reliable evidence existed.
To overcome the disadvantages of the media`s coziness with the Bush administration (console yourself MLP ` tutto il mondo e un paese!) Kerry is making exceptionally good use of the internet both for fund-raising as well as for diffusion of his message. Technology could also have a say in the formation of political sympathies and choices.
Whereas the anti-Bush camp, spearheaded by film director Michael Moore of `Bowling for Columbine` fame,` has issued the highly successful film documentary `Fahrenheit 9/11` which broke records firstly in being the first documentary to win the Cannes festival Palm d`Or, and then in grossing up over USD 100 million in the US and still going.
`Fahrenheit 9/11` makes no case for Kerry.` But it makes a compelling case that Bush is unfit for the post of President in which he was not elected by the majority of US voters. It `exposes issues which the US media quite mysteriously avoided using its power to inform the public about.
However, following the Democrats National Convention in Boston the previous week, there is another reason why I feel Kerry will carry. It is because through the convention and the ensuing battle state to battle state tour, the US electorate got to know who really is John Kerry and why the Democratic Party are rallying united behind their chosen candidate like nothing else in recent history.
Kerry came out of the convention as the hero who did not shy fighting the war when the country needed him in Vietnam even though he was not obliged to go. He was not afraid in protesting against such war when he realised that his country was fighting a losing battle. He came through the convention with a positive message showing he is fully aware of the problems of the middle class mostly with health care and jobs and promising to address these issues whilst restoring sanity to US public finance.
There is many a slip between the cup and the lip and there are a million things which could restore the White House to the Bush dynasty for another four years. Two such possibilities are particularly relevant. A terror attack which could force the US electorate to rally round its president as an exposition of national unity in its determination not to be cowed by Al Qaeda. And the Jewish lobby who seem scared that Kerry would put resolution of the Israel/Palestine conflict as top priority agenda forcing Israel to make concessions to clinch peace on the lines of the deal that President Clinton had nearly brokered in his last months as US President in the fall of 2000.
Strange, but arch enemies Al Qaeda and Israel could influence the selection process of the next US President in the same way.
Will Kerry carry?
8th August 2004
We are 86 days away from the electoral contest for the most powerful, and responsible, political job in the world, the election for US President due on 2nd November.
Untypical for when an incumbent is running for re-election the polls are too close to call with Kerry showing a few percentage points lead but often within the sample statistical margin of error and definitely not large enough to say that the election outcome is set.
There are some curious points however which make me tip my balance of judgement in favour of the hypothesis that Kerry will carry.
Firstly it seems that the level of undecided voters is pretty low and consequently even a small percentage lead could be enough to set Kerry on the road to the White House. President Bush is the sort of guy you either love or hate. And there are quite a sizeable segment of the US electorate who have turned against Bush for the way he lost focus in the war on terror by going after Saddam rather than pursuing Al Qaeda. Many Americans had backed their President in the war on Iraq because it was imprinted in their mind, though never explicitly stated, that Saddam was in bed with Al Qaeda and was the hidden hand behind the 9/11 terrorist attacks.
These Americans, who feel having been cheated into the Iraq war by claims of non-existent weapons of mass destructions and Iraq`s unproven links with the Bin Laden organisation, will now vote against Bush rather than for Kerry.
Another reason why I am inclined to think that Kerry will carry is that the advantage Bush through control over the media is being eroded by two new methods with which the Kerry camp are spreading out their message.
Bush control over the media is an insult of the true spirit of the US democracy. For readers who are interested to deepen their knowledge on this subject I recommend a good read of a new book by John W Dean who was a Counsel to President Richard Nixon. It is aptly entitled `WORSE THAN WATERGATE ` The Secret Presidency of George W Bush`.
In this book Dean lists potential scandals of the Bush/Cheney administration where the media has protected Bush rather than the public`s right to know. A far cry from the way the media behaved in the case of Clinton`s sexual indiscretions. In summary these are:
Secrecy about Bush character issues in his younger days Secrecy surrounding Bush business conducts and privileges he received from foreign investors because he was the son of a Vice President/President. Secrecy about the true state of Cheney`s health and medical record. Secrecy on charges regarding Cheney`s past business conduct when he was Chairman of Halliburton. Halliburton were found guilty and fined for fraudulent accounting just recently, but somehow the then CEO now Vice-President was not brought into the matter. Bush`s decision to overturn a law with an executive order regarding Presidential Records Act which could have exposed wrong-doing during the Reagan and Bush Snr. presidency by some who are still running the White House corridors. Extraordinary secrecy regarding the development of a national energy policy that benefited large contributors to Bush presidential campaign. Failed efforts to block an independent 9/11 enquiry Misleading Congress regarding the imminence and seriousness of the threat from Iraq when seeking endorsement for his War on Iraq policy. Wilful leaking of Ambassador Wilson`s wife being a CIA agent to punish Ambassador Wilson for exposing that President Bush knew, when he told Congress about evidence of Iraq`s attempt to obtain uranium from Niger, that no such reliable evidence existed.
To overcome the disadvantages of the media`s coziness with the Bush administration (console yourself MLP ` tutto il mondo e un paese!) Kerry is making exceptionally good use of the internet both for fund-raising as well as for diffusion of his message. Technology could also have a say in the formation of political sympathies and choices.
Whereas the anti-Bush camp, spearheaded by film director Michael Moore of `Bowling for Columbine` fame,` has issued the highly successful film documentary `Fahrenheit 9/11` which broke records firstly in being the first documentary to win the Cannes festival Palm d`Or, and then in grossing up over USD 100 million in the US and still going.
`Fahrenheit 9/11` makes no case for Kerry.` But it makes a compelling case that Bush is unfit for the post of President in which he was not elected by the majority of US voters. It `exposes issues which the US media quite mysteriously avoided using its power to inform the public about.
However, following the Democrats National Convention in Boston the previous week, there is another reason why I feel Kerry will carry. It is because through the convention and the ensuing battle state to battle state tour, the US electorate got to know who really is John Kerry and why the Democratic Party are rallying united behind their chosen candidate like nothing else in recent history.
Kerry came out of the convention as the hero who did not shy fighting the war when the country needed him in Vietnam even though he was not obliged to go. He was not afraid in protesting against such war when he realised that his country was fighting a losing battle. He came through the convention with a positive message showing he is fully aware of the problems of the middle class mostly with health care and jobs and promising to address these issues whilst restoring sanity to US public finance.
There is many a slip between the cup and the lip and there are a million things which could restore the White House to the Bush dynasty for another four years. Two such possibilities are particularly relevant. A terror attack which could force the US electorate to rally round its president as an exposition of national unity in its determination not to be cowed by Al Qaeda. And the Jewish lobby who seem scared that Kerry would put resolution of the Israel/Palestine conflict as top priority agenda forcing Israel to make concessions to clinch peace on the lines of the deal that President Clinton had nearly brokered in his last months as US President in the fall of 2000.
Strange, but arch enemies Al Qaeda and Israel could influence the selection process of the next US President in the same way.
Will Kerry carry?
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