Friday 31 December 2004

Tsunami

The Malta Independent - Friday Wisdom


Now we all know what a tsunami is. Not just the huge waves but the devastation and destruction, as man and technology stand powerless against the might of huge water energy released by sub-marine earth tremors.

As a nation, we can count our blessings that the calamity has happened way out from where it could expose us to such dangers, even though we worry about fellow nationals who were in the eye of the storm and suffered injuries and in some cases have not yet been located to confirm their well-being.

However, as citizens of the world we cannot but show compassion and solidarity with the victims of such natural disasters, whatever their nationality, creed or colour. We must send all possible help to ease the pain and deprivation at this great hour of need by so many, possibly millions, who have lost their loved ones and/or their material belongings.

Our simple human mind might tend to question the logic of the Almighty in the first place for permitting such acts of God (as so aptly described in insurance terms) and then for locating the disaster in areas already enduring great suffering through poverty and sub-standard living standards.

Many of the affected areas depend on tourism as their main economic source. Beyond the immediate loss and material damage, these relatively poor countries could soon find out that they have also lost their main source of livelihood, as tourists become wary of visiting such destinations until events fade from memory. By rough justice, the
Mediterranean, Malta included, could well benefit from a positive impulse of tourism as Europeans re-design their long-haul holiday destination plans to somewhere closer home. This does not mean that Malta is safe from tsunami risks. However, we are risking more a financial and economic tsunami than a geo-physical one as that so harshly experienced by south-east Asian countries.

As usual wise after the event, many have queried why tsunami alarm systems were not in place to give advance warning to the people in coastal areas to head for higher ground. Probably such systems will now be installed and kept on alert, even though we hope that these are once in a century events.

However, for our financial tsunami risks, the alarm system is already in place and ringing quite loudly. Amber and red lights are flashing all over the economic scenario. We have had no real economic growth over the last four years, 2001-2004. A high public deficit position is ending its ninth consecutive year and little improvement is planned for next year. Higher taxes have just financed higher expenditure and more of the same is planned for 2005, with some theoretical improvement postponed till 2006 and 2007. Public debt has doubled these last six years in spite of anaemic growth. Privatisation revenues continue to be lost in the fiscal wash.

New productive investment is nowhere near the levels needed to put us on a renewed growth trajectory; our inflation is higher than that of our competitors and our culture of savings has practically dwindled to zero as we try to keep our standard of living by dipping into past savings and incurring consumer debt.

And despite so many advance signals warning us that we could be risking a financial tsunami if we continue to ignore the problems, we cannot even bring ourselves to agree on a trivial measure regarding a reduction of public holidays and an increase in working days without additional compensation, which is nowhere near the real adjustment necessary to bring our standard of living back to within affordable terms and plan its consistent growth based on productivity and earnings rather than on consumption and debt.

Rather than address the issue at source and reverse the measures so capriciously taken by a PN government in 1987 to increase public holidays and vacation leave as a reward to the electorate for endorsing a PN government with their majority, the government tries to hide behind its own shadow by fudging legislation which declares Christmas in 2005 as not being a public holiday.

Unions, on the other hand, try to defend the indefensible, thinking that we can continue to holiday ourselves through our economic problems.

It is equivalent to the unfortunate holiday-makers on the
beach of Phuket, had they been given the chance to be fully aware of the impending arrival of the gigantic waves, wasting precious time arguing about the queue to use the showers rather than just run to reach inland safe places.

If we continue to tear this country apart by conflicts about the totally inadequate measure of reversing a few meaningless public holidays, we are risking the accelerated arrival of the financial tsunami which will just wash us all away, with most of the suffering reserved for those who can least defend themselves.

When this happens, we certainly cannot raise claims about the absence of economic warning signals to give us pre-advise in good time to avert the crisis. We will have no one but ourselves to blame.

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