Be Careful What You Wish For

3^rd February 2006

The Malta Independent - Friday Wisdom

It might come true. So goes the old adage. Wishes tend to appear more desirable and attractive when they stay as wishes rather than when they turn into reality. Disappointment and confusion can well result – leading to regrets that the wishes did not stay as wishes.

Two contemporary events are testing the wisdom of this old saying: one from the international scene and the other from the domestic.

Let me reflect on the surprise landslide victory of Hamas in the Palestinian election. That Hamas would do well in the election was easily predictable. However, that it would win an overall majority with a landslide was beyond all predictions, even those of Hamas itself.

It is clear that Hamas has not prepared itself for the responsibility of governing through an outright and clear democratic mandate, as it was expecting a substantial increase in its share of the vote, but not to the extent that it would overtake Fatah and gain an overall majority.

Wishing for electoral success might seem stimulating and motivating. Out of government, it is easy to promote policies without actually having to prove them and be accountable for their practical implementation. From the opposition, it is easy to challenge and criticise government’s policies and it needs little more than demagoguery to inspire the crowds with promises and aspirations.

Tasked with the responsibility of governing, reality has hit home, as Hamas now has to prove that it can translate its promises into a tangible action programme that delivers a better life to the Palestinian people. All the indications are, however, that Hamas itself is as surprised as the rest of the world and that it is ill-

prepared to meet the test of reality rather than continue with mere demagoguery.

And the suddenness with which events have unfolded, and the evident lack of preparation for such a new reality, adds further complexities to a situation that was already very difficult. Hamas has placed itself in strong contradiction, where the room for manoeuverability that they allowed themselves is pretty well zero.

Hamas has been elected on a vision of firstly pushing Israel back to the pre-1967 boundaries, leading to the eventual reversal of the 1948 UN decision for the creation of the State of Israel on Palestinian land.

Obviously, such a vision is easy to fan from opposition, but with the responsibility of government it is clear that it would isolate the Palestin-ians at a time when they most need international political support and financial aid. All people of goodwill can only continue supporting the Palestinians if they undertake a sharp revision of their objectives and accept the reality of the State of Israel and commit themselves to a policy of peaceful co-existence in a two-state solution.

On the other hand, such an instant sharp revision of policies that have been cycled for decades would weaken the very democratic base that produced the mandate to govern. In difficult circumstances such as these, it takes a huge dose of scarce leadership to find a delicate way out an impossible situation by gradually changing long-held visions as concessions are made against securing material aid which can alleviate unbearable miseries.

The more likely and unpromising development is that, in response to Hamas election to government on the Palestinian side, the forthcoming Israeli general election will elect someone like Netanyahu, thus killing all hope of a negotiated settlement.

Such conflicts often arise as a result of different interpretations as to when history starts.

For the Palestinians, history starts in 1948, when their land was taken away to create the State of Israel under a UN charter. For the Israelis, it was a homecoming to the land they had occupied when Moses took the Jews out of Egypt and across the desert to the land of milk and honey, which had hitherto been occupied by the Canaanites. According to the Israelis, only the no longer existent Canaanites can legally claim title to the land of Israel, and for them, history starts more than four thousand years ago.

Coming closer to home, we also have to be careful about wishing to strike oil in the Australian geological research being conducted. Rumours has it that the research is producing promising results. I seem to be one of the few who harbours grave doubts over whether finding oil in commercially exploitable quantities and conditions will be to our long-term benefit.

My worry is that what is commercially exploitable, when crude oil comes with a price tag of nearly $70 per barrel, might not remain so when oil eventually reverts to more normal price levels.

And if it so happens that we adjust our economy and our expectations and start behaving prematurely like small sheiks, we could find that growth in the oil sectors displaces rather than adds to other economic sectors and that oil sector growth may not, in the long term, be as stellar and sustainable as it has been these last three years.

We should be careful about wishing for riches through winning the lottery of oil exploration. We have come a long way through exploitating our abilities rather than our luck. I would much prefer that we continue to believe in our abilities and our winning in the global world through efficiency, ingenuity and innovation rather than rely on material resources, the value of which is subject to sharp fluctuations way beyond our sphere of influence.

We should be careful what to wish for.