Shaping Voters`s Mind

24^th August 2007

The Malta Independent - Friday Wisdom

With a general election less than twelve months away, with a great likelihood that it is in fact less than six months away, it would be a very dubious assumption for the PN to make that voters’ minds can be turned around with a strong budget next October and euro adoption celebrations at year end.

The voter’s mind is being formed now and once it forms it sets like concrete. Nothing can then reshape. I well remember a similar position when I used to militate in the Labour Party regarding the EU referendum issue.

The PN considered EU accession as a matter of principle and the conditions negotiated were details in the big picture. Labour on the contrary built their case for a partnership not membership on pragmatism of what was in Malta's best interest. So while the PN had all the time in the world to build their case and form people's mind on EU membership as a matter of principle, almost as the only way to save us from ourselves and our indiscipline, Labour had to wait for the final terms of the negotiated treaty finalised in December 2002 in order to build their case against EU membership. By then the voters' mind had already set and nothing could turn it around.

My best bet for timing of the next elections is in the latter half of next February. Leaving it for later would bring considerable risks to the PN. The euphoria following Euro accession could well turn in disgruntlement as some upward inflationary pressure, even if one-off in nature, seeps into the economy as a result of Euro adoption. Even the operation of Mater Dei could turn into a liability as the shine of the new edifice is replaced by the defects in its operating performance which will undoubtedly emerge as it reaches full load beyond the first quarter of 2008.

Holding the election earlier would negate the government the momentum it expects from Euro adoption celebrations. A pre -Euro adoption election would have been conceivable if Labour had adopted an anti Euro stance. It would have again forced voters into the PN fold against their better judgment to avoid stalling the Euro project in its tracks. But having learnt from the 2003 misjudgments, Labour did not favour the PN with a high order distinguishing issue regarding Euro adoption.

So the choices for holding the next election have in practice narrowed substantially. February carries a good omen for this first Gonzi administration. The first Fenech Adami administration sought its re-election in a general election held on 22 February 1992 with parliament being dissolved when it was re-convened after the Christmas 1991 recess.

So on the working assumption that the general election is less than six months away, the PN should be seriously concerned that they are still trailing Labour in the polls and that recent events have extended the gap.

What must be seriously confounding the PN strategists is how is it that an improving macro-economic environment, with faster growth, falling unemployment, low inflation, improving tourism and strong manufacturing exports is not filtering down to the voters' base. How is it that a better economic performance is not delivering a feel good factor that will persuade voters to overcome their fatigue with the PN in office and stay with a known quantity rather than revert to Labour with no track record or even a bad record of their last tenure in government of merely 22 months?

I would dare suggest that the absence of feel good factor is with good reason. Very little of the economic growth is actually filtering down to the voters and most of it is showing itself in corporate profits, especially of the financial sector, the property sector and the export manufacturing. The very little that trickles down to the large swathe of middle class voters is being instantly eroded by higher utility bills, higher school fees and higher cost of services demanded by monopolies who can freely package TV bundles to ensure that we are constrained to buy what we don't like with what we like.

Added to this there is growing perception that Prime Minister Gonzi, in spite of good intentions, has lost control over his team who seem to have entered a grab-what-you- can mood in these final months of the legislature. With this growing perception, it is easy for voters to swing to the alternative once they see the incumbent practically clearing the desk.

Corruption, whether real or perceived, (in politics as in business marketing, perception is reality) is a very strong ticket for the Opposition who need not offer much beyond a corruption free administration.

As August slips into September, parents will soon enter into a back-to-school mode. Parents will face stiff expenses in the form of increased school fees or donations, higher cost of books, uniforms and supplies, and yet another utility bill with a killing surcharge. At the same time they harbour a growing conviction that Government has grossly overspent in a hospital project that is throwing up operational defects all over even though it has not yet been put under operational stress. Sprinkle a few corruption charges on these perceptions and the wish for a change come next election will become set concrete which will not be turned around by last minute promises.

This administration has put itself in an embarrassing situation where scoring better macro- economic performance is alienating rather than attracting voters.