Ask the Client 2

16^th May 2008
The Malta Independent - Friday Wisdom
On the 11^th April 2008 I published in this column the result of a scientific survey conducted in late March 2008 amongst the general electorate for its preferences about a new MLP leader. I took this initiative with one purpose. I wished to engage the delegates who would be voting for electing the new leader with the views of the general electorate.

After all, the new leader will stand or fall by whether Labour wins or loses the next election. Losing again with a narrower margin is almost impossible so the only thing which means success for the new leader would be beating the PN and gaining government by latest 2013.

The delegates know that the committed Labour voters on their own are not enough to win elections. Labour has been getting a bit more or a bit less of 48% since 1981, with the exception of 1996. So a general election can only be won if they grow their 48% base to 50% plus which means that they have to gain the majority of floating and new voters.

Simple logic therefore suggests that in choosing their leader the delegates must not ignore the view of the floating voters and for this purpose I refreshed the March 2008 survey by another one conducted between the 28^th April and the 6^th of May. This is a telephone based survey among a random sample of 400 respondents. The respondents are randomly chosen to provide as representative as possible sample of the general electorate. Respondents are spread almost equally among the 13 electoral districts and are chosen for age groups structures that are typical of the general electorate. It carries a margin of error of about 5%.

The survey is not adjusted for obvious biases in the gender of respondents where 65% were females. It is also not adjusted for the fact that pro-Labour voters are over-represented in the sample in that 37% declare themselves as traditional Labour voters against 24% who declare themselves as traditional PN voters. 14% declare themselves as floating voters, 3% declare themselves as voters for none of the big two parties whereas the remaining 22% refuse to disclose their political preferences.

Obviously this bias affects the overall analysis but not necessarily the segment analysis. My interpretation is that hard core PN voters refuse to participate in the survey so the participants who profess themselves as traditional PN voters are less than hard core and could potentially become floating voters as the long tenure of the PN in government accumulates fatigue. On the other hand the profile of those who refuse to disclose their political preferences are people without deep rooted political conviction but generally leaning to Labour and fearing to formally identify their political orientation for fear of perceived recrimination.

Here are the summary results of the survey:

	George Abela	Evarist Bartolo	M L Coleiro Preca	Michael Falzon	Joseph Muscat
	Mar 08 May 08	Mar 08 May 08	Mar 08 May 08	Mar 08 May 08	Mar 08 May 08
Floaters	45% 44%	3% 9%	3% 9%	13% 9%	22% 24%
Refuse to say	23% 34%	8% 8%	6% 7%	17% 15%	43% 29%
Traditional Labour	11% 26%	4% 4%	2% 9%	9% 13%	64% 41%
Traditional PN	41% 54%	6% 6%	2% 15%	24% 21%	18% 12%
Overall	24% 37%	5% 6%	3% 10%	14% 15%	45% 29%

NB: Totals may not add up to 100% due to preferences given in small quantities to candidates who are not contesting as survey agents were not allowed to suggest names to interviewees.

The following conclusions are obvious. Abela and Muscat remain the two top contestants overall and in three out of the four segments. But overall Abela has now overtaken Muscat in the lead.

Floaters firmly continue to put Abela as their main preference but Bartolo and Coleiro added substantially whilst Muscat added moderately. Falzon reduced his share possibly through the wearing off of his appreciated concession gesture at Ta Qali.

A major revolution has occurred in the sector of those who refuse to disclose their political preferences. Muscat has seen a sharp drop in his share of this segment which was largely captured by Abela who is now in the lead of this important segment.

Among traditional labour voters Abela more than doubled his share since the previous survey whilst Muscat dropped more than a third of his former preference share. This notwithstanding Muscat remains well in command of this sector but the gap is narrowing rapidly.

Coleiro who in the March 2008 survey was considered as a late arrival has gained a lot of share in most sectors except in those who decline to state their preferences. She has now well overtaken Bartolo and is closing in on third placed Falzon.

It has to be repeated that this is a scientific survey of the whole electorate and that this does not represent the voting preferences of the voting delegates although I suggest that the latter should be influenced by it. Labour delegates more than anything else ought to want a long-awaited Labour victory at next elections, and if they understand that it is the narrow but crucial floating sector segment that decides who wins or loses elections, than they should have a clear choice.

Personally I am conducting these surveys to ensure that my endorsement goes to the candidate who gives the best prospect for a Labour victory rather than any other less important criterion like personal friendships, tastes or expectations. I had promised two of the other contestants that I would gladly switch my endorsement in their favour if these surveys were to show they command the highest favour among floating voters. This has not happened. The floating voter is the most important client for a political party. Asking the client to note their wishes is the minimum Labour should do. Disregarding them can only serve to extend its almost-there-but-not-quite-there syndrome.

Charts and further numeracy of the survey will be posted on my website.