Sunday, 25 January 2009

Obama Needs Miracles

   
25th February 2009
The Malta Independent on Sunday

Prince Turki al-Faisal is a very powerful man in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. When he speaks, it is as if the Kingdom itself has spoken and many consider him the heir apparent of King Abdullah. In his career he has been Saudi Ambassador to both the UK and the US, but he is mostly remembered as the Head of the Saudi Intelligence Service.

In this role during the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan he worked hand in hand with the US to build up the resistance that ultimately drove out the Soviets, in the process accelerating the collapse of communism, and eventually brought the Taliban regime into power in Afghanistan. He spent billions of his personal wealth and the country’s treasure on supporting Pakistan to organise resistance against the Soviets and in the process unwittingly helped the formation of Al Qaeda under the leadership of Osama bin Laden – up until that time a respected member of a business construction family and extremely well-regarded by Saudi royalty.

Both the US and the Saudis eventually lost control of the monster they helped create which, after successfully driving out the Soviets and winning an internal civil war that brought the Taliban into power, spun out of control, turning Afghanistan into a hotbed of fundamentalist jihads sworn to the Islamisation of the world, the destruction of Israel and the defeat of the Saudi royal family, which was perceived as being too accommodating to US interests in its oil policy. The most visible aspect of this was the 9/11 tragedy, in which most of the terrorists were of Saudi origin.

The Saudi Kingdom has always regarded the Iranian Islamic revolution of 1979 with suspicion and apprehension. Iranian fundamentalists are Shia and consider the Sunni Islamists ruling the Kingdom that contains Mecca and Medina as their rivals. Indeed, Saudi – and other Sunni oil kingdoms in the region – probably condoned or even encouraged Saddam Hussein to draw Iraq into a war with Iran very soon after the revolution of 1979. They needed protection, fearing that Iran could export its revolution firstly to Iraq, where a Shia majority was ruled by a Sunni minority, thus bringing the Shia revolution to the doorstep of the Kingdoms of Saud and Kuwait and eventually controlling the entire oil reserves of the region.

How does President Obama fit into all this? Three days after his inauguration, Prince Turki al-Faisal took the very unusual step of contributing an opinion piece to the Financial Times of last Friday, 23 January, which is indeed more of a threat than an opinion. It is almost an ultimatum to the Obama administration in its third day in office.

Let me quote some excerpts. “Prince Saud Al-Faisal, the Saudi foreign Minister, told the UN Security Council that if there was no just settlement (of the Palestinian-Israeli issue) we will turn our backs on you. King Abdullah spoke for the entire Arab and Muslim world when he said at the Arab summit in Kuwait that although the Arab peace initiative was on the table, it would not remain there for long”.

“America is not innocent in this calamity. Not only has the Bush administration left a sickening legacy in the region, but it has also through an arrogant attitude about the butchery of Gaza, contributed to the slaughter of the innocents. If the US wants to continue playing a leadership role in the Middle East – especially its ‘special relationship’ with Saudi Arabia – it will have to drastically revise its policies vis-a-vis Israel and Palestine”. Threats don’t come much clearer than that!

Prince Turki than proceeds to tell Obama what he should do. “Mr Obama should strongly promote the Abdullah peace initiative, which calls on Israel to pursue the course laid out in various international resolutions and laws: to withdraw completely from the lands occupied in 1967, including East Jerusalem, returning to the lines of 4 June 1967; to accept mutually agreed just solution to the refugee problem according to General Assembly resolution 194; and to recognise the independent state of Palestine with East Jerusalem as its capital. In return there will be an end to hostilities between Israel and all Arab states and Israel will get full diplomatic relations and normal relations.”

Notice the authority with which the Saudi Prince speaks on behalf of all Arab States. This definition excludes Iran, which is Islamic but not Arab, so Turki had to find a way to get Iran on board of such a deal. Given the long-held rift between Iran’s Shia and Saudi Sunni, this was always considered an impossibility.

No longer! Israel’s invasion of Gaza and the killing of so many innocents has managed to unite against it even the most ardent opponents. Read this:

“Last Week President Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad of Iran wrote a letter to King Abdullah explicitly recognising Saudi Arabia as the leader of the Arab and Muslim worlds and calling on him to take a more confrontational role over ‘this obvious atrocity and killing of your children’ in Gaza. The communiqué is significant because the de facto recognition of the Kingdom’s primacy from one of its most ardent foes reveals the extent that war has united an entire region, both Shia and Sunni.

Mr Ahamdi-Nejad’s call for Saudi Arabia to lead a jihad against Israel would, if pursued, create unprecedented chaos and bloodshed in the region.

So far the Kingdom has resisted these calls, but everyday this restraint becomes more difficult to maintain.... Eventually the Kingdom will not be able to prevent its citizens from joining the worldwide revolt against Israel.” Again, no mincing of words in delivering a threat.

Obama is being considered all around the world as the miracle worker. He has to solve the most serious financial problem since the Great Depression, a problem which, unless addressed through very bold and urgent measures, could turn a sudden recession into a depression leading to the breakdown of international trade and rising nationalistic friction that generally brings nationalistic fundamentalists into power through the democratic process, thus further complicating resolution to the problem without resolve to armed conflicts.

He simultaneously has to change the dynamics of the Middle East conflict that is marred by several rounds of innocent bloodshed by which, with the policy of an eye for an eye and a tooth for a tooth, the whole region will soon be blind and toothless. If Obama can prevail as an honest broker, and no longer as the natural protector of Israel, and can also bring into the equation the nuclear disarmament of the region, including Iran’s reversal of its nuclear ambitions, then we will really have to start referring to the man not as President Obama but as “Obama the miracle worker”.


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