Wednesday, 2 April 2014

The LFS explodes the myth of rising unemployment

National Statistics OfficeI have already argued that the state of the true un/employment can only be estimated when we have the Labour Force Surveys (LFS) as this overlooks the distorting shifts from/to un/registered un/employment.

Now we have it for the last quarter of 2013 which can be accessed through this link:

LFS Q4/13 NSO 26032014

The broad conclusions are the Labour Force increased by 4785 =  2.76% whereas unemployment increased only by 161,  so that the unemployment rate REDUCED from 6.5% to 6.4%.

The activity rate increased from 63.6%% to 65.3% indicating more people are entering the jobs market.   Furthermore of the 4785 net more jobs created , 2718 were males and 2067 were females indicating a more healthy 57% : 43% ratio split between sexes.

One can of course argue that an unemployment rate of 6.4% is still high, and indeed it is.   But let it be clear that unemployment is not increasing as some ill-informed PN gurus argue and scaremonger.  If anything unemployment is steady and slightly reducing even though the activity rate is increasing as more and more people who had given up on finding a job are now back seeking employment as they sense better opportunities.

And with so many projects in the pipeline, and as more people will start spending what they are saving from utility bills and get more confident about their existing employment, things can only get better.

No comments:

Post a Comment