The Malta Independent
17th March 2006
It was an unusually good week for my two non-core interests in life (non-core meaning excluding family and profession) being football (read my favourite team FC Internazionale of Milan) and local politics (read Malta Labour Party where my heart and political philosophy still reside).
It is quite unusual for Inter to cut down in one swoop two points of the difference between them and both Juventus and Milan in Italy`s Serie A league competition and in the same week qualify for the quarter finals of the Champions league. It is even more unusual that in the same week, in a direct head-on contest in local elections MLP beat PN 54% to 43%, the widest margin ever recorded in a direct clash between the two political camps.
What is the significance of such events for the longer term when more important issues are at stake Cutting Juventus lead from 14 points to 12 points with nine games to go does little to enhance Inter`s near zero prospects of winning the Scudetto. Cutting Milan`s lead from 4 to 2 points is more meaningful in that it opens reasonable prospects for the second place to avoid an early round in next year`s Champions League competition which would give the players practically no break following the World Cup competition.` Getting to the quarter finals of the Champions league is necessary if Inter are to lift the Champoins League Cup in Paris come 17th May but such success needs more consistency and better finishing apart from a generous dose of luck.
On the political front both Labour and PN need to reflect on the local election results.` An easy common conclusion should be that irrespective of the local elections outcome, the challenge for the great prize of 2008 will have to be fought day by day over the next two years probably right down to the last vote.
Labour have good reason to be happy with their performance. It is clear that at local level they are the automatic choice having beaten the PN in the last three rounds with increasing margin.` Is this a trend where the electorate is apportioning the democratic checks and balances by giving local control to Labour and central government control to the PN in a curiously consistent trend emerging since 1998` Or is the trend of local election results 2004-2006 a new beginning that has momentum that could lead to Labour`s success at the next big test of 2008`
You can argue it anyway you want and if a week is too long in politics two years would be an eternity. But certainly the percentages of the local election are not representative of a general election contest given that the voter turnout of 66% will undoubtedly grow into robust nineties in a wide general election contest.
Apart from the fact that voters are generally more willing to switch sides in a local contest than in a general election, the crucial issue for the general election will be the evolving attitude of those representing the 30% odd section of the electorate who stayed away last Saturday.
The PN need to muse long and hard on these non-voters.` In one way or another they showed either lethargy towards the entire political corps or, more probably, as a protest against the way the government is handling local and/or national issues.
It is quite in the ordinary run of things for governments to touch their lowest point in the popularity cycle at the mid-term phase of a legislature.` Claims that the deficit is being controlled and is reducing in line with the Euro accession programme are good food for economists and credit rating agencies but they do little to warm the heart of the electorate. On the contrary utility bills with huge surcharges impact the electorate in a direct manner with little sensitivity as to whether such charges are avoidable or beyond anybody`s control.
After all in 1998 Labour lost out mainly due to similar utility rate hikes and certainly it was not a pleasure for Labour to enforce such hikes to stabilise Enemalta`s financing.` It is in fact curious how the Gonzi administration seems to have learned nothing from Labour`s 1998 experience and is allowing utility rates to take on the brunt of oil price fluctuations rather than cap surcharges on such socially sensitive consumption at a reasonable level and transfer the excess load on fuel prices at the pump where there is more discretion of use and the impact is instant but gradual rather giving a shock every time the utility bill slips through the letter box.
The PN ought to wonder whether the four consecutive defeats suffered under Gonzi`s leadership, admittedly for a prize much less important than a general election, could be stamping on the Prime Minister the perception of that he is the PN`s version of KMB (who never won an election); or whether this forms part of some grand plan where the fruits of the unpopular measures will be reaped in good time for the next election proving that Gonzi can win when it matters whilst allowing space for his supporters to let their steam off where losses in smaller contests can be soaked without long term damage.
In the end what will decide Inter`s fate will be the ability to focus on the reachable prize and the team spirit that need to be fostered for their key players to keep or reach top form over the next 2 months.` What will decide the next general election is firstly whether Dr Gonzi can translate the technical progress being registered at macro-economic level into tangible benefits that the electorate can identify it and enjoy in time for next election in order to ensure that Labour won`t win by the PN`s mere default. For Labour it is important not to be carried away by simple and vain assumptions that the electorate has already decided their way and to talk positively about the country`s problems impressing that they can measure up to the challenge.
Alfred Mifsud
17th March 2006
It was an unusually good week for my two non-core interests in life (non-core meaning excluding family and profession) being football (read my favourite team FC Internazionale of Milan) and local politics (read Malta Labour Party where my heart and political philosophy still reside). It is quite unusual for Inter to cut down in one swoop two points of the difference between them and both Juventus and Milan in Italy`s Serie A league competition and in the same week qualify for the quarter finals of the Champions league. It is even more unusual that in the same week, in a direct head-on contest in local elections MLP beat PN 54% to 43%, the widest margin ever recorded in a direct clash between the two political camps.
What is the significance of such events for the longer term when more important issues are at stake Cutting Juventus lead from 14 points to 12 points with nine games to go does little to enhance Inter`s near zero prospects of winning the Scudetto. Cutting Milan`s lead from 4 to 2 points is more meaningful in that it opens reasonable prospects for the second place to avoid an early round in next year`s Champions League competition which would give the players practically no break following the World Cup competition.` Getting to the quarter finals of the Champions league is necessary if Inter are to lift the Champoins League Cup in Paris come 17th May but such success needs more consistency and better finishing apart from a generous dose of luck.
On the political front both Labour and PN need to reflect on the local election results.` An easy common conclusion should be that irrespective of the local elections outcome, the challenge for the great prize of 2008 will have to be fought day by day over the next two years probably right down to the last vote.
Labour have good reason to be happy with their performance. It is clear that at local level they are the automatic choice having beaten the PN in the last three rounds with increasing margin.` Is this a trend where the electorate is apportioning the democratic checks and balances by giving local control to Labour and central government control to the PN in a curiously consistent trend emerging since 1998` Or is the trend of local election results 2004-2006 a new beginning that has momentum that could lead to Labour`s success at the next big test of 2008`
You can argue it anyway you want and if a week is too long in politics two years would be an eternity. But certainly the percentages of the local election are not representative of a general election contest given that the voter turnout of 66% will undoubtedly grow into robust nineties in a wide general election contest.
Apart from the fact that voters are generally more willing to switch sides in a local contest than in a general election, the crucial issue for the general election will be the evolving attitude of those representing the 30% odd section of the electorate who stayed away last Saturday.
The PN need to muse long and hard on these non-voters.` In one way or another they showed either lethargy towards the entire political corps or, more probably, as a protest against the way the government is handling local and/or national issues.
It is quite in the ordinary run of things for governments to touch their lowest point in the popularity cycle at the mid-term phase of a legislature.` Claims that the deficit is being controlled and is reducing in line with the Euro accession programme are good food for economists and credit rating agencies but they do little to warm the heart of the electorate. On the contrary utility bills with huge surcharges impact the electorate in a direct manner with little sensitivity as to whether such charges are avoidable or beyond anybody`s control.
After all in 1998 Labour lost out mainly due to similar utility rate hikes and certainly it was not a pleasure for Labour to enforce such hikes to stabilise Enemalta`s financing.` It is in fact curious how the Gonzi administration seems to have learned nothing from Labour`s 1998 experience and is allowing utility rates to take on the brunt of oil price fluctuations rather than cap surcharges on such socially sensitive consumption at a reasonable level and transfer the excess load on fuel prices at the pump where there is more discretion of use and the impact is instant but gradual rather giving a shock every time the utility bill slips through the letter box.
The PN ought to wonder whether the four consecutive defeats suffered under Gonzi`s leadership, admittedly for a prize much less important than a general election, could be stamping on the Prime Minister the perception of that he is the PN`s version of KMB (who never won an election); or whether this forms part of some grand plan where the fruits of the unpopular measures will be reaped in good time for the next election proving that Gonzi can win when it matters whilst allowing space for his supporters to let their steam off where losses in smaller contests can be soaked without long term damage.
In the end what will decide Inter`s fate will be the ability to focus on the reachable prize and the team spirit that need to be fostered for their key players to keep or reach top form over the next 2 months.` What will decide the next general election is firstly whether Dr Gonzi can translate the technical progress being registered at macro-economic level into tangible benefits that the electorate can identify it and enjoy in time for next election in order to ensure that Labour won`t win by the PN`s mere default. For Labour it is important not to be carried away by simple and vain assumptions that the electorate has already decided their way and to talk positively about the country`s problems impressing that they can measure up to the challenge.
Alfred Mifsud
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