Thursday, 19 April 2012

Modern Titanics (3) - The Euro Crisis

The Euro crisis is simply a time bomb.    All measures taken to date have been aimed to extend the lead time before the bomb explodes but next to nothing has been done to defuse the bomb itself.

I have written extensively about what needs to be done to defuse the bomb.  My latest is the thesis on this subject which may be accessed through this link:

But reality is that Germany as the effective leader of the EU has no real motivation to solve the Euro crisis as the crisis is serving its interest well.    Whilst the core of the Euro Group excluding Germany need a Euro rate of Eur 1= USD 1.18 ( the original launch rate in 1999) Germany can remain export competitive with a rate of Eur1 = USD 1.60.   So the current effective rate of Eur 1 = USD 1.30 is very convenient for Germany but a drag on growth for the rest of the Euro area.    This situation is increasing the structural imbalances within the Euro area.

Result is that whilst Germany has the lowest unemployment rate, the highest exports and the best consumer and business confidence in the Euro area, the rest are suffering because of German intrasingence, eating the lunch of fellow Euro countries.

Presently the Deutche Mark which had an  original joining rate of 1.955 is notionally equivalent to USD 0.67.  Without the Euro system the Deutsche Mark would  be at valued at USD 0.82  involving a revaluation of at least 22%.

With such a revaluation Germany would lose its competitiveness and would permit other Euro countries to put in a growth dimension alongside the necessary austerity to reduce domestic consumption and shift production to export markets including Germany and other countries.

Obviously Germany will continue to persist in its role for which is has been masterfully trained.  It will impose austerity on the others, take whatever last minute measure are necessary to keep the system from blowing up, and meantime continue to make a feast out of the misery of others.

At some point in time the Euro ship will hit the iceberg.   A country in the austerity programme will at some point decide it had enough and start a chain reaction of lack of confidence about whether the rest of the Euro area can stay together as a system.  The whole thing will explode in a major panic crisis that forces countries to revert back to their old national currencies, enter into competitive devaluations, adopt beggar thy neighbour policies and roll back all the advantages of free trade/services and free movement of capital and labour that brought so much growth through the EU mechanism which unavoidably will get frozen.

May be it's time to mint a new Euro Coin

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