A strange situation

 The political situation in Malta is at the moment, to say the least, strange.

We are less than 12 months away from the next general elections.  Some would argue we are probably 8 months away if elections are held next spring or just 4 moths away if they are held this autumn.

At this juncture in the electoral cycle,  an opposition which has roundly lost the last 2 elections,  would be gearing up to offer a real challenge to an incumbent government which normally after 2 terms in office would be suffering from electoral fatigue. 

Post independence elections record show that only twice was there a government confirmed for a third consecutive electoral term.   That was Labour government of 1981-1987 and a PN government of 2008 -2013.   In each case there were extraordinary circumstances which forced the electorate to depart from its traditional 2 term cycle of governments.

In 1981 the popular vote was effectively won by the PN so the electorate kept its rhythm.  It was only the strange provisions of the constitution plus an element of district gerrymandering that produced a Labour government with a majority of parliamentary seats through a minority of the popular vote.  A strange situation which on top of the world recession of the time produced a very tumultuous and unstable political situation which was only resolved by late changes to the constitution which gave a clear win to the PN in 1987.

In 2008 PN won a very narrow election victory which gave it a third consecutive mandate.    But in this case again it was only Alfred Sant, who obstinately chose to remain Labour leader in spite of  his policies on non-EU membership being roundly rejected in 2003, that forced the electorate to deny Labour from its rightful claim to govern.   Any PL leader other than Alfred Sant would have scored a handsome victory for Labour in the 2008 election.   Alfred Sant had lost all credibility to lead the country in its status as an EU member when he had fought the 2003 election on the claim of economic disaster falling on the country if it  chose EU membership. Reality was showing that the country could prosper as an EU member.

Yet here we are in 2021, a few months to the next elections and all polls and surveys continue to indicate that Labour still enjoys a commanding gap in ratings over the PN and if general elections are held now Labour would again win by a margin as big as 2013 and 2017. 

I scratch my head trying to understand why this is happening especially at a time when Labour has, since the Yorgen Fenench saga exploded in November 2019, been on the defense shouldering blame for irresponsible governance.  This has projected  a strong perception of corruption at its  highest ranks and it has now been formally declared responsible for nurturing an environment of  impunity which was conducive to the horrible murder of a prominent journalist and government critic. 

I can think of four reasons which, singly or collectively,  contribute to this unusual state of affairs.

1. Labour has cleaned its stables whilst in government in less than 1 year whereas the PN has not cleared its stables after 9 years in opposition

2.  For all Labour's faults as regards poor governance, Labour delivered economic growth which was widely shared and people care more about their pockets rather than  about strong governance.

3. Labour has handled the Covid crisis in an exemplary manner and the importance of a strong economy was brought in evidence by having the necessary fiscal space to protect the economy from a sharp crash in spite of over-exposure to tourism.

4.  The PN show no serious plan to become an alternate government and their eagerness to bismirch the whole country in international fora exposes their narrow mindedness.   People want positive approach to problem solving not just murmurs and complaints. 

Going by the very bad experience of governments when elected to serve a third consecutive term I would have thought that the PN should by now be flying much higher.     It  seems the country may yet have another opportunity to discover whether a third term government can work effectively or if it will again be a bad experience as in 1981 and 2008.    Probably this is Labour's major challenge as it goes to seek a new mandate from an electorate not used to successful third term governments.