Tuesday, 14 February 2012

Credit ratings and yet another downgrade!

What does it mean to say that Moody's have downgraded Malta from A2 to A3 with a negative outlook?



To put things in perspective I give hereunder a table of the investment grade rating for long term bonds by the three main rating agencies i.e Moody's, S & P and Fitch.:



Grade

Moody’s
S & P
Fitch
1st
Prime
Aaa
AAA
AAA
2nd
High Grade
Aa1
AA+
AA+
3rd
Aa2
AA
AA
4th
Aa3
AA-
AA-
5th
Upper Medium Grade
A1
A+
A+
6th
A2
A
A
7th
A3
A-
A-
8th
Lower Medium Grade
Baa1
BBB+
BBB+
9th
Baa2
BBB
BBB
10th
Baa3
BBB-
BBB-
11th
Non Investment Grade
Ba1
BB+
BB+






So Malta's rating is now down from the 6th to the 7th step from the top ranking triple A and three steps away from losing its investment grade rating.



Somebody commanding an A3/A- rating is defined as:





a borrower that has strong capacity to meet its financial commitments but is somewhat more susceptible to the adverse effects of changes in circumstances and economic conditions than bond issuers in higher-rated categories

Considering that Malta was downgraded with several other Euro countries the negative implications are less serious than if it were downgraded on its own as it indicates that on a relative basis we have nor fared worse than peers. What annoys me is the negative outlook as it is a signal for more downgrades to come.


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