Passionate Disinterest

The Malta Independent

Passionate Disinterest

I have made this point elsewhere in the Press and stress it again here. The non-politically controlled media is doing the democratic structures of this country a great disservice in using very different measures in treating cases which could be a source of embarrassment to the two main political parties.

Whilst it has flogged beyond the point of diminishing returns the supposed irregularities on Labour` side the` Press shows passionate disinterest in cases which could embarrass the nationalist party in government even though the superficial evidence is that much more credible.

The Malta Independent last Friday defended itself editorially from such accusation arguing that their disinterest is due to the fact that Labour reached its conclusion before any investigations and consequently this affair is not worth following as it has become pure political armoury. It is very weak defence indeed.

Facts are facts and no amount of twisting will change them. Labour has made the point` that there is enough superficial evidence of external, possibly political,` interference in bank credit facilities of several million allowed to a small car importer controlled by a single person without track record. It has called for urgent independent investigations.` The first duty of such investigations is of the Board of the Bank who are probably loaded with such exposure decided upon by prior incumbents and are doing their damn best` to put up a brave face for them.` Under the pretext of bank secrecy the Bank has refused to comment on the case except to deny that there were internal reports critical of the exposures allowed and indicating outside influence.

In spite of sufficient indications of fraud in handling collections from clients without returning relevant bills of exchange the bank shows no wish to press fraud, probably fearing that this will bring the financial collapse of the company compounding further the reducing` recoverability prospects of the credit.

There is the duty of the regulator, in this case the Central Bank, to ensure that credit exposure decisions were taken in the ordinary course of business by the Bank without outside pressures.

Yet in spite of the smoke getting thicker and thicker we are expected to believe there is no fire. The Editor of this paper is quite willing to do so because of` misplaced speculation` as to whose hidden hand there could be behind these untoward exposures.



Rather than press for an independent investigation the Editor feels that because the absence of such investigation has unavoidably given rise to speculation about political` guilt, which until proven remains speculation period, then it should refrain from pressing for a truly independent investigation which would hopefully establish the facts and give us the truth, whatever it may be.

I emphasize that my experience of dealing with Bank of Valletta over a long period of time is that they take credit decisions in a very professional and thorough manner and if they err they do so on the side of caution. Which is all the more reason for suspecting that not all is as it should be in the particular case in question.

The Malta Independent has been following step by step an innocuous case where the Broadcasting Authority are trying to impose on Super One a right of reply beyond the obligations provided for in the Press Act. Why they take such a passionate disinterest in more serious cases where political interference in fraud cases is suspected begs questions which remain unanswered.

Alfred Mifsud

Nar fuq il-petrol

Il-Kullhadd

Nar fuq il-petrol

Waqt ic-celebrazzjonijiet mqanzha tal-PN biex jitfakkar is-36 anniversarju ta` Malta Indipendenti l-aktar ahbar tahraq li harget kienet il-weghda tal-Prim Ministru li fil-budget li gej ser jittiehdu decizjonijiet responsabbli dwar l-gholi fil-prezz taz-zejt.

U ma dan iqumu mistoqsijiet awtomatici. Decizjonijiet reponsabbli ghal min` Responsabbli ghall-Enemalta li grazzi ghad-decizjonijiet tal-Gvern bejn Dicmebru 1998 u Frar 1999 li ma jgeddidx hedging agreement biex jorbot il-prezz taz-zejt ghas-sena 2000 propju meta l-prezz kien qed jilhaq l-aktar livelli baxxi, dahhalha f`piz finanzjarju li ma tiflahx iggorr izjed` Responsabbli versu l-Ministru Bonnici li mhux biss ghamel qassata meta hareg imaqdar lil ta` qablu talli rabtu l-prezz taz-zejt bil-quddiem izda wera kemm ma jifhimx billi qed jikteb salt hmerijiet, tidwir mal-lewza u insinwazzjonijiet pwerili biex jiggustifka decizjoni hazina li dahhlet il-poplu fi spejjez bla bzonn` Jew responsabbli lejn il-poplu u l-konsumatur Malti li ma jiflahx izjed ghal piz ikbar ta` taxxi u gholi fil-prezzijiet`

Ha naraw x`ghazliet ghandu quddiemi il-gvern.

Jista` ma jaghmel xejn u jkompli jghix bit-tama, kif ghamel il-Ministru Bonnici dawn l-ahhar tnax il-xahar,` li l-prezz taz-zejt jerga jorhos u` kollox jigi f`postu wahdu. Din hija strategija perikoluza li diga ilha tithaddem sena b`rizultati allarmanti. Bhal daz-zmien sena meta beda joghla l-prezz il-Ministru Bonnici l-ewwel ma tax wisq kaz ghax haseb li dan huwa fenomenu temporanju.` Mbaghad meta ppersista beda jargumenta, mieghi inkluz, li dan kien sakemm jghaddi l-ahhar tas-sena minhabba il-problema tal-Y2k ghax kulhadd qed jahzen zejt aktar mis-soltu. Min dan kollu ma rrizulta xejn u l-prezz taz-zejt baqa` tiela u tiela kontra kull tama tal-Ministru Bonnici.

Jekk ikomplu jilghabu din il-loghba l-Enemalta taf tizvinta finanzjarjament u jkollha ddur fuq sussidji minghand il-gvern li ma tantx qieghed f`pozizzjoni finanzjarja li jaghmel.

Jista l-gvern inaqqas il-piz tad-dazji u l-Vat minn fuq il-petrol u d-diesel biex b`hekk l-Enemalta tgholli l-prezz bla ma dan jizdied f`dak li jhallas il-konsumatur. Hafna pajjizi ewropej hekk ghamlu meta ffacjati bi protesti kbar mill-pubbliku dwar zidiet fil-prezz tal-fuel.` Il-gvern Malti izda qajla jista` jaghmel dan meta l-izbilanc pubbliku ghadu gravi u s-sena d-diehla ghandu zieda qawwija fl-ispejjez tal-ftehim kollettiv tac-civil.` Ma ninsewx li fil-budget li ghadda il-gvern dahhal 15% VAT fuq il-petrol u d-diesel u din irrendiet hafna ntrojtu li issa l-gvern ma jistax jghaddi minghajru.

L-aktar alternattiva li qed tissemma hija li jzid il-prezz tal-prodotti li tbiegh l-Enemalta biex jaghmel tajjeb ghaz-zieda fuq il-prezz taz-zejt li htija ta` l-arroganza tal-Ministru Bonnici issa ser tibda taghfas fuq il-poplu Malti.

Izda hawn ukoll tqum il-mistoqsija.` Liem prodotti jistghu jizdiedu u b`kemm`

L-Enemalta tbiegh tlett prodtti principali lill-konsumatur Malti, l-elettriku, il-fuel mill-pompi u l-gass.

Jista` l-gvern izid l-elettriku u l-prezz ta l-ilma li biex jigi ppurifat juza hafna energija elettrika` Jista izda f`dan il-kaz il-gvern qajla ghandu spazju fejn jimmanuvra.` Ma ninsewx l-istorbju kbir u l-frattarija meta dawn il-kontijiet zdiedu minn Gvern Laburista fil-budget 1998 u dak iz-zmien ukoll il-prezz taz-zejt kien refa` rasu.

Jista` jzid il-prezz tal-gas. Apparti li hawn ukoll jolqot l-aspett socjali dan qajla jeffetwa l-finanzi ta` l-Enemalta ghax il-gass huwa relettivament parti zghira mill-bejgh taghha.

Dan ihalli il-prezz tal-petrol u d-diesel mil-pompi. Dan ilu joghla kull sena mill-1997 dejjem habba taxxi gooda biex jipprovdi intrijtu lill-gvern u mhux biex iddahhal aktar l-Ebnemalta.` Ghalhekk ma tantx hemm` spazju ghall-zidiet qawwija ohra. Specjalment fil-kaz tad-diesel kull zieda jkollha riperkussjonijiet fuq hafna aspetti ohra bhal spejjez ghas-sajjieda, spejjez ghall-furnara, spejjez ghat-trasport pubbliku li kollha mbaghad igibu zidiet fil-prodotti l-aktar bazici tal-hajja.

Li jhalli l-piz il-kbir jingarr mil-petrol li ghandu inqas aspett socjali u wiehed jargumenta li dak li jkun ghandu mezz kef jekonomizza minnu billi jdur ghat-trasport pubbliku u b`hekk jghin lill-ambjent.

Jekk ir-ragunar tieghu huwa tajjeb il-petrol se jgorr il-piz taz-zidiet fuqu, zidiet li jaf ikunu sostanzjali.` Allura forsi il-gvern ser jistedinna biex nimxu aktar u biex nirragunaw li b`tal-linja jaqbillek.

Alfred Mifsud

IVA What

The Malta Independent

IVA What`

The government is launching a new wave of publicity to promote its yes campaign in favour of Malta`s membership bid in the EU. Malta is to have it`s IVA movement to balance out the CNI movement against membership beyond the political fora of the debate.

Really the CNI no campaign is already more than balanced by the European Movement and the Malta-EU Information Centre (MIC) who show no shame whatsoever in going beyond their terms of reference to inform and instead form part of the political yes campaign.

This notwithstanding,` qualitative and quantitative returns from the electorate show, with a very small margin for possible error, that the yes position has been losing supporters at a fast pace whilst the no position is holding its own. The biggest block is now composed of the don`t knows ( some say don`t care!).

This is not surprising.` As I have argued in my publication last year the case for Malta` membership in the EU is neither` black nor white.` There can hardly be rigid yes or no positions. It is more a case of` `yes if` and `no but`.

I have little sympathy for the extreme position of the CNI that pronounce their no position in the most categorical of terms and support their argument by pretensions that Malta could prosper by developing an inward looking economy retaining its import protection measures on a more or less permanent basis.

My logic tells me that a small economy like ours could only grow and prosper if we are outward looking developing our niches in a globalised market place where no one owes us a living.` Can this be achieved better within or outside EU membership`

The membership option is still being largely a one size fits all solution. This` takes away our most privileged natural resource, that of having a strategic importance much bigger than our physical size. It is clear to me that prosperity is more likely achieved by retaining the flexibility to be different from the rest. This to me is the meaning of Labour`s Switzerland in the Mediterranean model.` It is the endorsement of the thesis that as a small nation we thrive by being different, by retaining our flexibility to mould our own future, to preserve our strategic importance and gently leverage it to obtain commercial advantages. Like Switzerland this does not say no in big bold capital letters to EU membership. It says a gentle no thank you, not now,` may be later when you`re you are flexible enough to permit small countries the possibility `to retain the advantages of` their` small size.

It is regretted that IVA movement is to promote the government`s unconditional total surrender-like approach to EU membership when what is needed is a `yes if` approach. The development of a set of pre-conditions which Malta will not be willing to concede to the EU neither at the outset nor after a transitional period.

While distancing myself from CNI rigid no position, I continue to follow my logic in arguing` the case for the no, but position. No thank you, not now may be later when your rules would be flexible enough to permit some tailoring to Malta`s own requirements; when a real consensus is developed among the people to ensure that this once in a nation`s life-time irreversible step is taken in the most broad-based determined manner possible.

Meanwhile I am curiously await the` Danish referendum yes or no to the Euro. This could be a watershed stage for the EU prompting it to choose between a rigid Union in which Malta should not aspire for a place, or a more loose variable geometry system which could meet the requirements of both Switzerland and Malta.

Alfred Mifsud

Stamp perversa

Il-Kullhadd

Stampa Perversa

Jekk tridu ezempju ta` kemm l-istituzzjonijiet li suppost jissalvagwardaw id-demokrazija hawn Malta huma fil-fatt tradiment ta` l-istess demokrazija u jahdmu kontra l-interessi tal-Partit Laburista` harsu ftit lejn is-sitwazzjoni prezenti fil-qasam tal-media.

Kullhadd japprezza li l-media hija pedina importanti fit-thaddim tad-demokrazija tal-pajjiz.` F`pajjizi barranin apparti li jkun hemm media li tkun kontrollata jew turi simpatija ma` partiti politici, ikun hemm media serja, indipendenti, li tghasses lil gvern u lil kull min ghandu awtorita` kontra l-abbuz tal-poter.

F`Malta dan ma jezistix. Il-media f`pajjizna jew hija dik tal-partiti u li allura bilfors ixxaqleb lejn il-partit li jkun sidha,` jew fejn dan mhux il-kaz ixxaqleb b`mod dikjarat jew apart favur u kontra partit jew iehor. Media indipendenti hija nieqsa u b`hekk hawn demokraizja zoppa, domokrazija taparasi mhux demokrazija veru u attiva.

Niehdu l-media stampata.` Il-Partit Laburista ghandu zvantagg enormi f`dan il-qasam.` Il-Partit ghandu biss kontroll dirett fuq qazzetta bil-malti li tohrog darba nhar ta` Hadd.` Juru simpatija mal-Partit hemm ukoll gurnal ta` kuljum u gurnal nhar ta` Hadd li johorgu wkoll bil-Malti mill-GWU,` u li allura jservu dejjem l-istess udjenza, dik li hija diga` konvinta laburista.` Media stampata bl-ingliz il-Partit Laburista ma ghandu xejn.

Il-Partit Nazzjonalista ghandu kontroll dirett fuq gazzetta bil-malti ta` kuljum u ohra kull nhar ta` hadd. Izda ghandu wkoll l-appogg editorjali kwazi inkundizzjonat tal-gazzetta The Times li tohrog kuljum u The Sunday Times li tohrog kull nhar ta` Hadd bl-ingliz li tolqot udejenza ta` dawk li mhux bilfors ghandhom patrunagg politiku fiss.` Dawk li bil-vot floating taghhom jiddeciedu jekk elezzjoni tmurx `l hawn jew `l hemm.

Hemm ukoll il-gazzetti tal-Indipendent li johorgu wkoll bl-ingliz kuljum u kullnhar ta` hadd.` Filwaqt li editorjalment dawn m`humiex horox daqs The Times favur il-Partit Nazzjonalista, jibqa` l-fatt li l-mizien ixaqilbuh lejn in-nazzjonalisti specjalment aktar ma toqrob l-elezzjoni.` Fl-kwistjoni ta` l-UE dawn decizament u dikjaratament kontra l-Partit Laburista u jaghmluha cara li anke fuq din biss jippreferu jaraw il-Partit Nazzjonalista fil-poter. Il-gazzetta kugina Business Weekly li tohrog nhar ta` hamis bl-ingliz intiza ghas-settur ta` l-executives u l-upper middle class, hija aktar harxa dwar din il-policy.

Hemm imbaghad il-gazzetti ta` kull gimgha Malta Today u Business Times li wkoll huma ffinanzjati minn nies li dejjem urew simpatija mal-Partit Nazzjonalista u li editorjalment jappoggaw il-perpetwita` tal-poter nazzjonalista.` Ma ninsewx il-gazetta tal-Knisja il-Gens li kulhadd jaf fejn timbotta specjlament fil-mumenti krucjali ta` qabel l-elezzjoni. Tkellimt u tajt ezempji bizzejjed dwar dan.

Minkejja dan l-izbilanc qawwi u dikjarat kontra l-Partit Laburista fl-istampa Maltija l-istrutturi demokratici ma hasbu ghall-ebda Awtorita` biex jigi zgurat xi forma ta` bilanc. Kullhadd ihawwad u jigdeb u l-uniku protezzjoni hija l-Press Act li rimedju fl-ahhar mill-ahhar hija kawza ta` libell il-qorti li ddum tkarkar is-snin. Min joqghod jipprova jiehu dan ir-rimedju jista` jarma kamp il-qorti u jimpjega xi zewg avukati full time mieghu.

Ir-rizultat ta` dan jidher bilfatti. Harsu lejn l-interess qawwi ta` l-istampa biex tonfoh, tivvinta u zzom hajja il-hrafa tal-voti mbghabsa ta` Alfred Sant. Ikkomparaw mad-dizinteress li l-istess stampa turi fil-kaz tad-Daewoo fejn hemm cirkustanzi bizzejjed li jindikaw abbuz ta` poter.

Mhux hekk izda fil-kaz tax-xandir permezz tar-radju u televizjoni! Hawnhekk ghax il-partit laburista ghandu mezzi` biex jaghti daqs kemm jaqla`, mezzi ta` Super One li nhoss li dejjem qed jitjiebu,` hawnhekk ghandna Awtorita` tax-Xandir li issa qed taghmilha missjoni li tkejjel kollox bil-punt u l-virgola. Ma thalli l-ebda spazju biex il-Partit Laburista jaghmel tajjeb ghad-deficit li ghandu fil-qasam tal-media stampata.

Mhux hekk biss. Il-ligi tax-xandir giet mibdula dan l-ahhar biex tipprovdi ghal penali ezagerati ghal min ma jobdix l-ordnijiet ta` l-Awtorita` tax-Xandir anke fejn dawn l-ordnijiet ikunu redikoli u kjarament politkament motivati. Ma halliet l-ebda forma ta` appell mid-decizjoni.` L-Awtorita` hija l-Imhalleh u l-gurija flimkien bla dritt ta` appell.

Jekk l-Awtorita`, kif jidher, ser taqbad it-triq li tipprova taghlaq halq il-media laburista allura probabbli mhux il-boghod iz-zmien fejn ikolna nirrikorru ghar-rimedji. Rimedji legali anke jekk hemm bzonn fuq livell internazzjonali u rimedji lokali fejn akkost ta` pieni u sistemi li jirredikolaw id-demokrazija ahna naghmlu dak li huwa fl-interess tad-demokrazija u mhux dak li tghid il-ligi! Nispera li ma jwasslunix s`hawn!

Alfred Mifsud

Celebrate or Repent

The Malta Independent

Celeberate or Repent

Next week Malta celebrates the 36th anniversary of its Independence.` Rather than celebrate I think it would be more appropriate to repent our actions these last twenty odd years.` Twenty odd years where short termism and wasteful compromises brought us to a state where the sustainability of our independence is being questioned.

The first fifteen years after independence were a post-event period when as a nation we truly worked to concretise the fragile political meaning independence was given on that eventful night in 1964.

Hard decisions were taken which brought about a metamorphosis in the economic scenario shifting the island economy from one dependent on military spending to one developing on its own steam, attracting` foreign direct investment in export oriented manufacturing and service activities. All this was crowned in 1979 with the dismantling of the military base.

These last twenty years we have been more like rebels in search of a cause.` The virtues of work and efficiency were gradually allowed to change into vices of unsustainable consumption and money no problem frame of mind. Foreign investment in noticeable by its absence. Local investment was mainly directed to an over-development in real estate creating environmental and economic sustainability problems. The political scenario has been rendered into a permanent election campaign with half the population` feeling left out, perpetrating the divide in this classless homogeneous nation and leading to ill-afforded waste of human resources.

A debt free economy has been turned` into a debt-laden economy. Our taxes are merely being thrown down the big-black fiscal hole without serious infrastructural investment being undertaken. Without such investment` the` economy remains deprived of seriously needed new impetus.. The dismal state of our road network is a mere symptom of the root of this problem.

The present administration which has been in office for these last twenty years bar periods of 5 and 2 years where Labour was an ineffective government either through perverse electoral mandate` or through internal squabbles.` The Nationalist administration celebrates independence with religious fundamentalism on one hand, whilst with the other hand it practically admits` its unsustainability by pushing Malta towards a one way no alternative` road to EU membership.

The most forceful,` practical though unacceptable argument, which genuine down to earth pro-EU persons make,` is that this country have been rendered undisciplined and practically ungovernable by its political class and we need the stick of an external agent to help us put our house in order. This argument accepts the failure of our experience as an independent nation island state.

For those who like me firmly believe in the sustainability, indeed prosperity, of Malta as a truly independent state, this` Independence Day should be a day to repent our mistakes and pledge to restore efficiency, savings, measured consumption and well thought private direct investment as the basis of economic growth.` University professors who prefer to perpetuate the left and right divide rather than offer this country the pragmatic solution to its real problems just expose how their academic cosy life has detached them from problems of the real world.

Alfred Mifsud

I-lprezz taz-Zejt u tal-prozunzjoni

Il-Kullhadd

Il-Prezz taz-Zejt U tal-Pruzunzjoni

F`dawn il-jiem rega` beda d-diskors fuq il-prezz taz-zejt. Fil-Konferenza generali tal-Partit f`Jannar li ghadda jien kont widdibt li fi zmien mhux fil-boghod minkejja li l-prezz tal-petrol u d-diesel kien ghadu kif ghola 15% bil-VAT, dawn ikollhom jergghu joghlew. Iz-zmien issa wasal!

Ghaliex kont bassart dan Jien mhux xi profeta li nkun naf il-gejjieni. Izda certi affarijiet tista tarahom gejjin daqs kemm tista tara li min hawn u ftit gimghat ohra tonqos is-shana u tidhol il-harifa.

Tisimghu hafna fuq hedging u x`naf jien u perzwaz li mhux kullhadd jifhem xi jkun qed jinghad. Allura tajjeb li bil-mod il-mod naghti daqxejn ta` storja u taghrif ta` kif wasalna hawn.

Il-prezz taz-zejt huwa prezz tas-suq. Daqqa `l fuq u daqqa `l isfel. Hawn kemm hawn esperti fid-dinja hadd ma jista` jtik garanzija ta` kemm se jkun il-prezz ghada, ix-xahar id-diehel, sena ohra. Opinjonijet ikun hemm u kultant dawn ikunu kontradittorji izda garanziji xejn.

Min jikkonsma hafna energija , per ezempju il-linji ta` l-ajru li jridu hafna fuel biex itajjru l-ajruplani ikollhom problema meta jridu jiffissaw il-prezzijiet ta l-ajru minn qabel filwaqt li l-prezz tal-fuel ikun ghadu jilghab. Biex jaghmlu tajjeb ghal dan il-kumpanjia jizviluppaw risk management policies biex jikkontrollaw ir-riskju li l-ispejjez tal-fuel joghlew wara li huma jkunu diga ftehmu il-prezz ta` l-ajru u ma jkunux jistghu jghollu jekk jinqala xi saram.

L-ewwel il-kumpaniji jaghmlu stima ta` kemm hemm probabilta` ta caqliq fil-prezz taz-zejt . Gieli nghaddu min perjodi ta` stabbilita` u gieli il-prezzijiet ikun instabbli hafna. It-tieni jiffurmaw opinjoni fuq jekk l-instabbilita` hiex ser tgholli jew tbaxxi l-prezzijiet. Fost affarijet ohra trid tara il-livell kurrenti tal-prezz. Jekk il-prezz ikun baxx allura il-probabbilita` tkun li jghola u bil-kontra jekk il-prezz ikun gholi il-probabbilita` tkun li jorhos.` Mhux dejjem hekk izda aktarx li din hija regola mhux ta` min iwarrabha ghal kollox.

Jekk jahseb li l-prezz ikun ser jorhos allura ma jaghmel xejn u ma jorbot xejn halli jgawdi mir-rohs. Jekk jahseb li l-prezz ikun ser joghla allura biex jevita li jinqabad bi spejjez mhux provduti jorbot il-prezz bil-quddiem anke jekk il-prezz li jintrabat bih ikun xi ftit oghla minn dak kurrenti. Izda b`hekk ikun xtara serhan il-mohh li jista` jippjana l-ispejjez u jekk joghla ma jigix effetwat. Dan jissejjah hedging. Jekk minflok joghla il-prezz jinzel allura ikun qed ihallas aktar milli jhallas` kieku ma rabatx izda dan huwa l-prezz tas-serhan il-mohh.

Bhal meta thallas l-insurance ta` karozza. Jekk kif kulhadd jiextieq fl-ahhar tas-sena ma jkollokx accidenti ma tirragunax li tlift il-premium. Dak huwa il-prezz tas-serhan il-mohh biex jekk xi darba jinqala accident ikun hemm x`jaghmel tajjeb.

Nigu ghal kaz ta` Malta. Meta fis-sajf tas-97 kienu qed isiru il-preparament tal-budget 1998, dak il-famuz li caqlaq il-muntanji, il-prezz taz-zejt kien tiela tiela u lahaq $23 il-barmil. Ittiehdet decizjoni politika li joghlew il-prezzijiet tal-petrol u l-elettriku biex jaghmel tajjeb ghal din iz-zieda u qam il-punt x`jigri jekk il-prezz taz-zejt jibqa tiela` Biex ma jkunx hemm bzonn nergghu nghollu sar hedging ghax il-previzjoni kienet li z-zejt ser jibqa` tiela.

Gara bil-maqlub. Il-prezz taz-zejt flok tela nizel u lejn is-sajf tat-1998 meta l-kampanja elettorali bdiet tirranka il-gvern laburista ried li kif jitla` jbaxxi il-prezz ta` l-elettriku biex jirrifletti t-tnaqqis fil-prezz taz-zejt li issa kien lahaq xi` $15. Biex ikun zgur li r-rohs ikun sostenibbli dahal f`heding Agreement iehor bi prezz baxx sa l-ahhar ta` l-1999 ghax kien hemm il-fehma li dan kien prezz tajjeb u tahtfu kif tbaxxa ghax il-probabbilita` kien li wara ftit jibda joghla.

Inbidel il-Gvern u l-Minsitru Bonnici ma tantx wisq ma beda jippontifika kemm kienu cwiec ta` qablu li rabtu l-prezz taz-zejt meta dan baqa niezel. Fil-parlament fi Frar 1999 meta l-prezz taz-zejt kontra kull previzjoni nizel sa $9 dollari tghidx kemm hambaq u cewwec lil ta` qablu il-bravu professur Bonnici.` Sadanittant kellu parir car u qawwi mill-Enemalta. La l-prezz kompla niezel tqawwa l-argument biex torbot aktar fit-tul halli jgawdi minn dar-rohs ghal izjed zmien. L-Enemalta qalulu tina permess norbtu bil-prezz baxx ghas-sena 2000 ukoll.

Il-bravu Professur Bonnici flok ha dal-parir sensibbli ried jilghab il-loghba politika u mhux talli ma hax il-parir talli kompla jghajjar lil ta` qablu kemm ghamlu hazin li nxurjaw il-prezz li ghal dan il-bravu Ministru dan kien qisu spekulazzjoni.` Ghal dan il-Professur risk management hija spekulazzjoni!

Min wara Frar 1999 il-prezz taz-zejt beda tiela tiela u sa l-ahhar tas-sena 1999 meta skada l-hedging li kien sar taht Gvern laburista l-Enemalta kienet b`kollox ghamlet qliegh minn fuqu ta` $4 miljun dollari. Dan il-qliegh mhux importanti ghax il-hedging ma jsirx ghal qliegh.` L-importanti li l-Enemalta kellha serhan il-mohh u ghamlet qliegh tajjeb mill-operat fl-1999 minkejja li rohhsot il-prezzijiet ta` l-elettriku kif kellu hsieb li jaghmel gvern laburista kieku tela` ( ara r-rapport tieghi flimkien ma John Cassar White mxandar f`Novembru 1998).

Kif sebah il-millenju b`rizultat tal-pruzunzjoni tal-Ministru Bonnici l-Enemalta bdiet tixtri iz-zejt mis-suq b`rati gholjin u bdiet titlef medja ta $5 miljuni kull xahar skond kif ikun il-prezz.` Ghalhekk tkellimt kif tkellimt f`Jannar li ghadda.` Dan issa huwa d-disgha xahar li l-Enemalta qed tibla` dan it-telf u l-pozizzjoni waslet biex tixpakka ghax sa dan it-tant il-prezz taz-zejt baqa tiela sa $35.

Issa li waslu biex jittiehdu r-rimedji li jtaqqbulek butek` l-Profs beda jfarfar. Issa mhux hu jiddeciedi! Nesa x`kien qal fil-parlament fi Frar 1999.

Jien ma nippretendix li kellu jbassar dan l-gholi fil-prezz taz-zejt.` Hadd u hadd ma ghandu din il-kapacita`. Kieku qaghad kwiet u ha decizjoni li ma jorbotx allura wiehed jifhem li din kienet decizjoni hazina imma li ma tlum lil hadd ghax kulhadd ghandu l-opinjoni tieghu jekk il-prezz taz-zejt hux ser joghla jew jinzel. Izda la l-Ministru Bonnici ippoliticizza `l bicca qabel meta l-affarijiet kienu sejrin favuru ma jistax issa jfarfar ghax daru kontrih.` Issa ser ikompli jsostni li r-risk management huwa spekulazzjoni` Jew spekulazzjoni hija dik tieghu li ghazel li ma jorbot xejn u halla lil-Enemalta esposta ghal riskju bhal dan li ser jixpakka l-qafas finazjarju taghha jew tal-poplu li jrid jerfa` l-piz ta` min ma rabatx meta kellu parir biex jahtaf il-prezzijiet meta kienu baxxi.

Min sa jhallas il-prezz taz-zejt u tal-pruzunjzjoni tal-Ministru Bonnici`

Alfred Mifsud

Common Thread

The Malta Independent

Common Thread

I have never experienced the current degree of boredom being expressed by` serious middle of the road people towards local politics.` It seems that politics has become` detached from their real needs, their worries and their aspirations.

Right at a time when uncertainty about their future is at its peak the government continues to tell them` that all is just fine.` Reality obviously is that for the first time in their lives their take home pay has gone down. Inflation above EU levels is eroding their standard of living and they live under threat of further inflation as energy prices will finally have to respond to international forces

Their businesses are strapped for cash as Government continues to drain` cash flow from the private sector by its rigorous tax impositions to finance its unsatiable needs for more and yet more expenditure.

Their job security is not there anymore as restructuring and liberalisation will change the rules of the games for domestically oriented industries which will unavoidably shed off labour. Meanwhile opportunities being created are few and not matching the skills of those whose jobs are threatened.

Yet government seems oblivious to their concerns and blows out the usual rhetoric about the EU.` On the local front its priority is keeping alive and pumping up to the limit of fantasy the supposed rigging of the election of Alfred Sant` to leadership of` the MLP.

Thus people who have lost faith in the government turn to the opposition and see it in a disgraceful state of` bickering with former influential exponents who seem to have made it their mission to destroy Alfred Sant even at the expense of making the party unelectable.

Normally sensible people with abundance of intellect to tell fact from fiction seem to have lost their logic and are on a relentless crusade to destroy Sant. They absolutely do not care that their case is based solely and uniquely on the revelations of a self-confessed liar who retracted all his stories. They maintain their credence to his original story without explaining how anyone could have stuffed 150 votes in a ballot box guarded by candidates representatives and yet have the finally tally agreed except for 5 votes which were not cast and considered as abstentions.

There is only one logical conclusion which could explain what`s happening.` The only common thread running along all those who are ganging on Labour and Alfred Sant is their devout belief in Malta`s mission to become an EU member. They are well supported by the English press which again falls deep within the euro-phile ranks.

Could it be that the only way they could keep Labour out of government in the next legislature is by making it unelectable through internal bickering so as to give the PN a free ride for a further term which would present` realistic time-frames for realising the EU dream` Nothing else explains the illogical` behaviour of otherwise sensible people.

God forbid if the EU is shoved down our throats through such dirty tricks! When an opposition is not allowed to oppose it is the death of democracy. We could be heading for the EU through a process which betrays the basic democratic credentials we must have to be considered for membership.` `

Passive gambling

The Times of Malta

Passive gambling

Minister Josef Bonnici article `Slipper gambling` (The Times 7th September 2000) is a piece of commercial non-sense and political dishonesty.

Let`s start with the commercial non-sense first. Minister Bonnici asks if the net gain of US$ 1.7 from the two hedging agreements made by a Labour administration to cover the period ended in December 1999 was worth the risk involved and does it make sense to put so much at risk whilst attempting to beat the oil market this way`

The fact the` Minister is making this question` demonstrates that he commands` a very cloudy understanding of risk management in general and hedging agreements in particular.

Such tools are not meant for speculation to earn or lose money through guessing or missing the future price of oil.` Their efficacy cannot be measured purely by the amount of money gained` or lost versus a no-hedge position. These are risk management techniques where a perceived a risk is addressed` either by a conscious decision to run it or by applying risk management tools , in the particular case in question by entering into hedging agreements.

So contrary to what the Minister asserts, purposely or through misinformation, in the face of an uncertain future (and it is uncertain to all of us even to experts who are often better in explaining why their` predictions went wrong rather than in making correct predictions ) a decision to hedge is taking less risk than a decision not to hedge. The former is crystallising one`s costs and buying peace of mind at the expense of losing potential gains if prices fall below the hedge price. The latter is throwing yourself completely at the mercy of the markets and you just take it as it comes without limits to your exposure.` This is passive gambling. But it is gambling, and how!` Gambling which is avoided by all serious international companies to whom the price of energy is an important component of their costs e.g. airlines.

Let` consider` the case of Enemalta now.` For its domestic operations` i.e. excluding bunkering and aviation fuel,` Enemalta sells its products ( electricity, fuel and gas) in Maltese Liri at fixed prices controlled by government. In so doing it runs` inherent risks related both to the price of oil as well to the value of the US$ in which such oil is priced.` These input costs tend to vary substantially and from time to time, and` whoever is responsible for running Enemalta has to take a decision as to whether to hedge or to run the market risk.`

There exists no magic formula applicable to all circumstances and it very much becomes a question of managing risks. This` has become a specialisation of its own and of which apparently the responsible Minister has very poor opinion.` Normally one would be wise to hedge the input costs if the hedged priced allows reasonable profit margin from the fixed price of sale. However when the price of oil is high and one takes a view that the price is likely to fall then such hedging is avoided or only entered into for short term periods. This is the situation at the moment with the price of oil hovering between thirty and thirty five dollars. Per contra when the price is at a low level and the prospect is for an increase in price, one is more inclined to hedge for long term period to take maximum benefit of the then current low prices on the market.

The Minister describes as` mad game a request made to him in November 1998 to hedge oil prices for the year 2000 purely because Enemalta was losing its pants on the then outstanding hedging agreements. No Minister,` this is neither a mad game nor was Enemalta losing its pants.` It is a very sensible risk management tool. The lower the price of oil goes the more reason to hedge long-term to eliminate the risk of a price recovery. And Enemalta was not losing its pants. Enemalta was enjoying the peace of mind bought through the hedging agreement which permitted your government to reduce electricity rates after the election without causing havoc to Enemalta`s finances.

Which brings me to the political dishonesty. It is dishonest to say that Dr Sant consciously misled the Maltese public prior to last election when he stated that a re-elected Labour government would reduce electricity and water if the price of oil declined.` Labour promised to reduced the price of water and electricity because by August 1998 the price of oil had declined substantially below what it was when the increased tariffs when calculated a year before. And to ensure that the reduction in tariffs was made on a sustainable reduced cost base` a sensible risk management tool was applied through the` _ hedging agreement.` This is not gambling Minister. This is serious planning and sensible risk management.

Through his passive gambling the Minister in refusing Enemalta`s sensible suggestion to extend the hedge to cover the year 2000 to lock in on the falling oil price decided to play the passive gambling game.` The fact that for the first six months of this year the difference in cost of domestic consumption is just Lm2.3 million is little consolation.` What matters is what the difference is going to be in the last six months of this year when in the same period last year we were covered by the hedge protecting us from rising prices and this year we have noting to protect us from super high prices.

On present estimates I would guess that Enemalta is probably losing about Lm2 ` Lm3 million per month so the whole bill for the year thanks to` Minister Bonnici`s passive gambling could amount to between Lm 14 million and Lm20 million.` An impressive second prize to the first prize gained by the Minister of Finance last year in throwing away some Lm50 million liri from the sale of Mid-Med Bank.

There seem to be no end to the passive gambling mentality.` In promoting the US$ bonds being launched by Bank of Valletta a prominent local stockbroker has sent me promotional literature wherein he states `we feel the US Dollar is likely to maintain its value versus the Maltese Lira over a ten year horizon`. A further classic case of misguided passive gambling which the Authorities must not allow. Or perhaps amongst us we have an `expert` who could see ten years ahead.

Sentejn

Il-Kullhadd Sentejn

Ghaddew sentejn minn dak l-ewwel Hadd ta` Settembru meta l-Laburisti genwini u onesti Maltin raw il-progett ta` Malta moderna jitwaqqaf` hin qabel il-waqt. Min huwa bhali ma jistax ifisser l-ugiegh li hass u ghadu jhoss fl-intern tieghu talli rebha elettorali ta l-1996 thalliet tizvinta fix-xejn ghal gost u pjacir ta` dawk li holqu il-problemi kbar li ghandu l-pajjiz bhalissa u li huwa car li ma ghandhom la l-kapacita` u lanqas id-disposizzjoni li jindirizzaw dawn il-problemi.

Illum ghaddew sentejn. Il-weggha mhux biss ghada hemm izda kibret hekk kif qed naraw zewg kurrenti li jkomplu jdawru s-sejf fil-ferita. L-ewwel li n-nazzjonalisti m`huma jonoraw xejn mil-weghdiet bla ghadd li ghamlu lill- elettorat u li bl-ghajnuna ta` l-istampa qed jithallew vaganza bla ma jaghtu rendikont xieraq u rett ta` ghemilhom. It-tieni li l-forzi li` jippretendu li jikkmandaw l-imhuh ta` kulhadd issa mhux kuntenti biss li l-Partit Laburista ma hallewhx jiggverna izda issa li kien ghalihom lill-Partit Laburista lanqas ihalluh jopponi.

Ghaddew sentejn u qed noqorbu lejn nofs il-legislatura. Kif jghaddu sitt xhur ohra tibda titfacca fuq ix-xefaq l-elezzjoni generali. Ikun hazin li nassumu li l-poplu issa tghallem ghas-spejjez tieghu. Li issa l-poplu fehem kemm kellu ragun il-gvern laburista tas-1996 u li kulma ghandna naghmlu huwa semplicement li nistennew iz-zmien jghaddi halli l-poplu bil-vot jaghti` daqqa ta` xkupa lil dan il-gvern.

Certament li l-poplu mdejjaq.` Certament li l-poplu urtat. Certament li poplu konvint fil-fond ta` qalbu li Alfred Sant kellu vizjoni gusta ghal Malta moderna u li genwinament kellu pjan biex nsiru ahwa maltin li d-differnzi poltici taghna nesponuhom biss fi zmien l-elezzjoni u fil-kumplament taz-zmien kullhadd ihossu cittadin malti bl-istess obbligi u drittijiet.

Izda dan mhux l-istess li tghid li mdejjaq kemm huwa mdejjaq il-poplu awtomatikament sejjer jaghzel Gvern Laburista halli jkompli fejn hallejna fl-1998. Rebha bhal din irridu nahdmu ghaliha bl-gharaq tad-demm ghax kontrina ghandna forzi kbar b`rizorsi hafna izjed minna.

Ghalhekk l-ewwel u qabel kollox hemm bzonn l-ghaqda fil-partit. Bil-vot tal-laburisti biss ma nirbhux gvern u wahda mill-affarijiet li tgerrex lin-nies milli jersqu lejna hija meta nidhru li hemm nuqqas ta` ghaqda bejnietna. Mhux li ma jkollniex differenzi.` Differenzi jkollu kullhadd. Izda li filwaqt li kullhadd huwa ntitolat ghall-opinjoni tieghu hadd ma jista` jmur kontra l-policies dikjarati tal-partit hlief biex ifittex li` jippreswadi u jikkonvinci fl-istrutturi interni biex il-partit, jekk dik tkun l-opinjoni tal-maggoranza, ibiddel kif mehtieg.

Min zbalja u jaghraf li zbalja billi esternalizza id-differenzi ta` opinjoni b`mod li dghajjef il-Partit, allura jehtieg jitlob skuza. Sukza mhux lill-Leader izda lil-Partit li huwa nofs il-poplu. Mhux jibdel fehmtu jekk dik konvint minnha.` Izda jaccetta li fi hdan il-Partit il-fehma prevalenti hija dik tal-maggoranza u jekk ma jaqbilx maghha ghandu ghazla biex jew jirtira jew jibqa` jippruva jinkkonvinci l-maggoranza fi hdan l-istrutturi tal-partit.

Min tbieghed u ghadu jahseb li ghamel sew allura nirrispettaw d-dritt ta l-opinjoni tieghu. Ma hemm bzonn l-ebda persekuzzjoni. Anzi nirrispettaw il-gid u x-xoghol li sar meta min tbieghed kien ghadu jaqsam maghna l-idejal u l-hsieb laburista.` Sempliciment irid johrog car li min tbieghed mhux parti minna filwaqt li nzommu l-bibien miftuha ghal min irid jerga jirrispetta r-regoli tal-partit.

Fl-ahharnett irid johrog car li l-partit ghandu leader wiehed li jehtieg il-lejalta` taghna lkoll. Mhux li naqblu f`kollox. Izda li anke fejn ma naqblux nirrispettaw id-decizjoni ta` min imexxina li ghalina tkun kmand. U li fejn ma naqblux ghandna nkomplu nuru il-kif u l-ghaliex minn gewwa bl-akbar diskrezzjon u onesta`.

Hekk dejjem hdimt jien mal-leader u dejjem sibt il-komprensjoni` u r-rispett anke fejn bqajna b`opinjonijiet differenti. Mhux il-boghod iz-zmien biex permezz ta xoghol sfiq u ppjanat sew nergghu niskbu lura l-fidcuja tal-poplu biex nohorguh mill-gwaj li dahhluh u qed ikomplu jghaffguh dawk li ghalihom il-gideb ipinguh` verita`.

Whither Lira

The Malta Independent

Whither Lira`

It might appear strange that, as a professed doubter about` Malta`s` EU membership bid,` I keep signifying my` concern for the fact that the 42% component of the Maltese Lira basket reserved for the Pound Sterling and the US$ is causing serious handicap to the competitiveness of Maltese exports.

The Euro is again touching record lows on the foreign exchange market and the prospect of its recovery in the near term is not bright. In spite of impressive economic growth record in Euroland this is not matching the productivity increases being registered in the US.` Furthermore interest rate differentials between Euro and the $/Sterling are not expected to narrow as all countries seem to be considering edging up of the respective bank rates to address the threat of their respective economies over-heating into inflation.

Furthermore with price of oil apparently permanently structured above the $30 per barrel, it is feared that this will feed inflationary pressures in Euroland much quicker because of its low currency.` Economic observers fear this could trigger interest rate hikes by the autonomous European Central Bank which would kill off economic growth very early on in the cycle,` compared` to the US and UK that are enjoying record cycles of inflation-controlled economic growth.

In reality this initial weakness of the Euro is a blessing in disguise in the early stages of this fledgling currency.` It is the only practical way 12 disparate economic regions can survive a monetary union until they achieve reasonable approximation of their respective economic cycles.

On the local front the Euro weakness means that the local currency is causing severe loss of competitiveness of our product on our main export market. The inclusion of the US$ in the basket mainly reflects the importation of commodities ( mostly energy and grain products) and the import/export currency of our major foreign trade unit i.e. ST Thomson.

I disagree with the inclusion of the US$ in the basket for three pragmatic reasons. Firstly the basket should be export-trade weighted and not just trade weighted as first we have to export before we can import.` Secondly ST Thomson size has a habit of distorting our economic figures and the Authorities would do well to analyse the economy after excluding ST Thomson`s figure.

ST Thomson are operating in a particular market segment where there exist bottlenecks of supply and where clients pay what they have to pay to secure sufficient supplies of micro-chips. ST good fortune in positioning itself in such a market command situation cannot be allowed to deduce from gross macro-economic reading of statistics,` that all the others can take the Maltese Lira appreciation with the Euro` with the same ease as ST.

Lastly I don`t think that our economy with inflation record well above that of Euroland countries and with efficiency gains surely below it, can afford to sustain a currency which appreciates significantly against the Euro. This argument` will be more pronounced when sooner or later Enemalta will be forced to decide that it cannot continue to absorb the price increases of oil and of the US$ and will have to pass these increases down the line to consumers thus stoking up domestic inflation even further above the Euroland countries average.

Pragmatism demands that the Maltese Lira be` aligned more strictly with the fluctuations of the Euro. And this has nothing to do with our becoming or not a member of EU. It has all to do with safeguarding the export competitiveness of our economic units and not allowing` them at the mercy of international market forces over which they have no control whatsoever.

Alfred Mifsud