Sunday, 7 September 2003

Groups Sub-Groups and Left-Outs.

The Malta Independent on Sunday 

 

Austria, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Greece, Hungary, Ireland , Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia and Sweden issued a call for changes to the draft EU Constitution, proposed by the European Convention in July. This came out from a meeting this week in Prague organised by the small countries of the enlarged EU to prepare common positions for the up-coming Inter Governmental Conference (ICG) in Rome starting October 4th.

The 15 countries ignored warnings by German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer that the compromise reached by the Convention should not be tampered with. They said in a statement: "some issues ranging from aspects of institutional structures to decision-making procedures would require further consideration".

One of the key demands of the smaller countries is that each should be guaranteed a post of a commissioner with full voting rights. Under the Convention's proposal there would be only 15 commissioners with full voting rights for 25 Member States.

The smaller countries also want to reopen the proposal for a permanent president to replace the current six-month rotating presidency which gives each Member State equal rights at leading the EU. The smaller countries are convinced that the current proposal favours the bigger Member States, notably Germany, France, UK, Italy and Spain.` The position of the `small` countries is broadly supported by the Commission itself.

The 15 country members or candidates that met this week, under a group termed as the smaller EU states ( strangely including Poland that is anything but small) clearly think that Germany, France and UK, the biggest three, are trying to push through changes which tilt the balance of power within the EU in their (big countries) favour.

So we have 15 `small` accusing the `big` 5. That means that 20 members have somehow been framed with this `conflict`. This leaves out 5 countries to make the whole set of 25 actual or prospective members.

It was confirmed that Belgium, Luxembourg and Netherlands were invited but declined the invitation either because they do not agree with the position taken by the grouping or do not wish to be aligned with any grouping.

There are 2 left-outs. Cyprus and Malta certainly had all the credentials to be invited to attend the small countries pre-ICG preparatory meeting to align positions to make sure that the EU constitution will protect their rights.

Yet for some odd reasons Malta and Cyprus were not even invited to attend the Prague meeting. Government has confirmed as much but stopped short of telling us what it intends to do to ensure we are not relegated to an irrelevant status within the EU. Because if the small countries of the EU have already stated ignoring us, what prospect do we have to ensure that we are not even more ignored by the big countries that normally pull all strings within the EU` Government should not take such things lightly. It is most definitely in Malta`s interest to lobby for retention of a permanent fully fledged EU Commissioner as well as for the keeping the present rotation system for EU presidency. If we take this first one lightly others will follow as a matter of course.

IMF Staff Report 2003

Positive assessment but structural reforms and fiscal consolidation lose momentum is the one-line summary of the IMF Staff report on Malta released this week.

For as long as we continue to have the capacity to finance the deficit internally without recourse to foreign borrowing sources, including the IMF itself, the IMF will continue to issue benign assessments of our economy.` It will give over-weight attention to professed reform intentions to cushion the adverse impact of current economic faults.

But should we ever run out of the capacity to finance deficits internally the IMF will be less impressed by promises, often unfulfilled, of future reforms, and will start giving overweight attention to the adverse impact of current problems.

Probably IMF has silently accepted that it is inevitable for reforms to lose momentum in an election year when government loosens up for electoral popularity purposes. But they know quite well that the only way we can preserve our ability to finance internally our deficits is by real re-structuring to ensure that the demands for public financing is reduced both in absolute terms and in relative terms to the GDP.  They certainly expect us to pass from intentions to real action if we are to see the positive long-term benefits of the discipline of adhering to EU rules in general and EMU rules in particular.

Well and truly during the next 12 months, our true will to re-structure will be under the close observation of the IMF and all international rating agencies. We can disregard this only at our peril.

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