Nice Doubts

The Malta Independent

Nice Doubts

Next December the EU Council will meet at Nice, on the French Riviera, hoping to reach a historic agreement on reforming the EU institutions to pave the way for effective decision making within an enlarged EU.

The leftovers of the Amsterdam treaty will have to be sorted out at` Nice. Leftovers is a deceptive word. The outstanding issues are not unimportant breadcrumbs. They are meaty bones that could bring out the old European confrontation.

The two major issues that risk stalemating the enlargement process are the composition of the EU Commission and the rights of veto and voting powers within the Council.

Italy, our most ardent supporter for enlargement has tabled a proposal for the big countries to have 33 votes each` while the smaller countries will have a minimum of two votes. No prizes for guessing who will get two votes and how uninfluential these would be in the final analysis.

The big countries that will be losing one of their two Commissioners would want to make up for this by increasing the weight of their vote in the Council. They will try to do this in a way that it will be difficult for the small countries to form a blocking minority to the re-defined majority voting that will be extended to practically all areas currently requiring consensus.

Would Tony Blair, torn already as he already is domestically over the Euro issue, risk alienating the electorate further by divesting the British Parliament from its current veto powers` Would Germany demand more votes than France, UK and Italy based on its larger population` If so, where would Poland be classified to ensure that it does not dilute the domination of the big countries`

Resolution of these decisions requires a very strong Commission to arm twist member countries into the necessary concessions. But the Prodi Commission is anything but strong. In a straw poll of analysts and journalists accredited to EU institutions published in the Financial Times last Monday, Prodi garnered only 9 points out of a maximum of 30 whilst the enlargement commissioner Verheugen pooled 20 points, well below average.

There remains the problem of` the composition of the 20 strong Commission with a potential of 27 members. No prizes for guessing which members will be asked to forego permanently or partially the right to appoint a Commissioner.

The French presidency of the EU is seemingly preparing the ground for appreciation of a glorious defeat as being better than a miserable victory. Pity the British Minister for Europe had nothing substantial to say on these issues during his recent visit where he found time to utter many empty platitudes.

These circumstances make the Swiss model a much safer bet to build upon than the never never accession policy. If Nice doubts will prove realistic, Malta`s interest would be better served by demanding a Swiss type arrangement keeping the membership option open for when we would know what sort of EU we would eventually be offered to join. Otherwise we will just be giving up the benefits of being out without enjoying the benefits of being in and without necessarily knowing what these benefits would be once we are eventually offered the choice to go in.

Switzerland in the Mediterranean vision is relevant now more than ever.` Nice will prove it.