Budget Bazwi ghal Ftit Xhur

L-Orizzont



Il-budget li habbar nhar it-tnejn il-Ministry Dalli b`pompa u b`arroganza kbira m`hu xejn hlief ticpisa ta` figuri insostenibbli intenzjonati li jservu biex il-gvern izzappap il-ftit xhur li fadal lejn l-elezzjoni.

Biex taraw `kemm dan huwa minnu iflu biss mizura wahda. Il-mizura li dahhlet il-VAT fuq l-elettriku u c-cilindri tal-gas.` Qalulna li l-konsumatur mhux ser `ibati minn dawn il-mizuri ghax dawn ser tbatijhom l-Enemalta.

Dan loghob tas-shahar.` Il-gvern izid id-dhul mil-VAT izda l-konsumatur ma jabtix ghax il-VAT thallasha is-sahhara ta` l-Enemalta.` Il-buzillies huwa li l-Enemalta m`ghandix poteri tas-shahar. L-Enemalta hija korporazzjoni pubblika, propjeta tal-gvern f`isem il-poplu. Dak li tbati l-Enemalta, jbatih il-poplu.

`Dak li tbati l-Enemalta, jbatih il-poplu` Kien hemm zmien meta l-Enemalta kienet tahleb. Il-frazi Ahleb Guz! jiftakara kulhadd. L-Enemalta llum ma ghadiex tahleb. Fl-ahhar kontijiet li hargu ghas-sena 2001 l-Enemalta garrbet telf ta` Lm7 miljuni u tinsab `mimlija sax far ghajnejha bid-dejn li biex tlahhaq mieghu trid tibda taghmel qliegh sew, nikkalkula qliegh ta` madwar Lm10 miljun kull sena, mill-anqas.

Mela kif l-Enemalta ser terfa`piz gdid biex thallas il-VAT ta` 5% fuq il-kontinjiet ta` l-elettriku u 15% fuq ic-cilindri tal-gas. Il-Management ta` l-Enemalta li huwa responsabbli mill-operat ta` l-Enemalta din jaccetta meta jaf li dan imur kontra l-ligi ta` l-Enemalta. Il-Ministru repsonabbli mill-Enemalta, il-Prof Josef Bonnici li donnu il-Ministru Dalli jhobb jiehu mizuri apposta biex jimbarazzah, li huwa resposnabbli li jzomm l-Enemalta finanzjarjament b`sahhitha qed jaccetta il-mizuri li jekk itulu ifallu lill-Enemalta`

Jew il-gvern ghandu xi pjan malinn li jwassal l-Enemalta gharkubbtejha biex imbaghad jipprivatizzaha b`irhis u b`dannu ghall-interssi nazzjonali u tal-haddiema` Il-fatti huma li dak li ghamel il-Ministru sahansitra jmur kontra ir-regoli ta` l-UE li tinsisti li VAT tghaddi ghal fuq il-konsumatur. Huwa wkoll insostenibbli ghax jifqa`il-finanzi ta` l-Enemalta li diga qeghda f`pozizzjoni difficli. Allura tasal biss ghal konkluzjoni wahda. Dik li din hija mizura temporanja kemm kemm twassalna sa l-elezzjoni.

`Il-Ministru repsonabbli mill-Enemalta, il-Prof Josef Bonnici li donnu il-Ministru Dalli jhobb jiehu mizuri apposta biex jimbarazzah, li huwa resposnabbli li jzomm l-Enemalta finanzjarjament b`sahhitha qed jaccetta il-mizuri li jekk itulu ifallu lill-Enemalta Imbaghad wara is-sahhar jisparixxi u tibda r-rejalta`. Rejalta` li tghid li l-Eenmalta mhux biss ikollha tghaddi dan il-piz gdid tal-VAT fuq il-konsumatur izda wkoll tkun trid tgahddi fuq il-konsumatur spejjez godda ta` madwar Lm4 miljuni kull sena biex mill-power station tal-Marsa jibda` jinharaq Low Sulphur Fuel biex innaqqsu t-tniggis u nimxu skond ir-regoli ta` l-UE. Dik hi r-rejalta`.

Jien zgur m`hiniex kontra li l-Enemalta tibda tahraq Low Sulphur Fuel fil-power station tal-Marsa. Anzi nistghu naghmlu dan minn ghada u m`hemmx ghalfejn nistennew li nidhlu fl-UE.` Immur oltre u nghid li l-Power Station tal-Marsa jehtieg li fiz-zmien relattivament qasir tinghalaq ghax ma jistax ikun li sors ta` tniggiz bhal dan jinqa f`nofs centru daqstant popolat. Issa li Delimara qeghda hemm nistghu inzidu l-potenza taghha b`teknologija moderna ibiex kollna generazzjoni ta` l-elttriku bla tniggiz ambjentali.

Izda jien rejalistiku u ma nemminx fi shahar li dan kollu jista` jsir bla ma hadd igorr il-piz tieghu.

U hemm hafna aktar indikaturi li juru li dan il-budget huwa tbazwira li saret ghal ftit xhur sa l-elezzjoni. Kif wiehed jista` jifhem li l-ispiza rikurrenti tal-gvern is-sena d-diehla ser tizdied biss b`Lm14 il-miljun meta din is-sena zdidied bi Lm43 miljun Kif jista` jkun dan meta din is-sena il-gvern ma kellux zidiet fil-pagi tac-civil u s-sena d-diehla se jkollu zidied fil-pagi. Mhux bilfors li l-Ministru zelleg il-figuri ha jidhru sbieh issa u mbaghad wara naraw.

L-istess kien ghamel meta ghamel ghal budget ta`l-1996, `l-ahhar wiehed qabel dik l-elezzjoni biex jidher sabih kien qal li mil-VAT se jdahhal Lm110 miljuni. Fil-fatt kien spicca dahhal biss Lm78 miljun. Niftakar lil ex-Ministru Lino Spiteri jirrakonta li meta staqsa lid-Deopartiment kif ghamlu stima daqstant gholja u irrejalistika dawn qalu bla tlaqliq li huma qatt ma taw jew qablu ma dik l-istima li kien ghamilha il-Ministru wahdu.

Il-VAT qabzet biss il-Lm110 miljuni fis-sena 2001 hames snin wara li kien bassar il-Minsitru u wara li l-VAT giet estiza fuq affarijiet godda u essenzjali bhal petrol diesel u telephone. Daqstant jaf ibazwar il-figuri il-Minsitru specjalment fis-sena ta` qabel l-elezzjoni. `Dan il-budget mhu xejn ghajr tbazwira ghal ftit xhur.` Is-serjeta` u s-soluzzjonijiet jista` joffrihom biss gvern Laburista ta` wara l-elezzjoni.`

Hemm ukoll aktar tbazwir fil-budget. Dan qed jipprevedi dhul ta` Lm23 miljun minn ghotjiet mill-UE u mill-gvern Taljan.` J`Alla jidhlu. Izda filwaqt li dawn ghadhom il-boghod hafna mill-Lm100 miljun imweghda ejja nifhmu li anke jekk jidhlu dawn ma jkunux dhul rikorrenti. Dawn huma dhul tas-snin ta`qabel lil-gvern nazzjonalista skadut ma kienx kapaci jigbed u jinnegozja sew u li ghandi dubji kemm ser jirnexxielu jigbidhom matul is-sena d-diehla meta l-gvern mitluf fuq affarijiet ohra.

Hemm ukoll dhul mixxelanju ta` Lm6 miljuni godda li dwaru ma hemm taghrif xejn la fl-estimi u lanqas fid-diskors tal-Ministru. Dawn x`inhuma taxi godda li jithabbru wara l-elezzjoni`

Izda fuq kollox il-budget ma tiggudikahx fuq mizuri individiwali.` Tiggudikah fuq l-impatt kollettiv li jkollu biex isolvi il-problemi kronici tal-pajjiz. Il-problemi li llumm jammettihom kullhadd.` Il-problemi tad-deficit fiskali, problemi ta` ggammjar ekonomiku u problemi ambjentali li qed jgharrqu l-livell tal-hajja tac-cittadini. Ma jindirizzax lanqas il-faqar socjali gdid li qed jinbet fil-familji li jghixu bil-penjsoni jew pagi baxxi li ma jgawdux mill-gholi tas-ceilings tat-taxxa u li meta jmorru jirtiraw il-medicini li ghandhom dritt ghalihom b`xejn ma jsibuhomx u jkollhom jixtruhom mil-ftit li ghandhom u jiccahdu minn affarijiet essenzjali ohra.

Dan il-budget mhu xejn ghajr tbazwira ghal ftit xhur.` Is-serjeta` u s-soluzzjonijiet jista` joffrihom biss gvern Laburista ta` wara l-elezzjoni.

The Prisoners of Azkaban

The Malta Independent



Min Dalli whilst denying the existence of the Wizard of Oz in the first part of the budget speech behaved like Harry Potter in putting the budget together. In fact the budget is full of secret chambers making the HP connection much more apt.

His strong assertion that great progress has been made in addressing the budget deficit is disproved by his own figures. The projected deficit of Lm78 million for this year cannot be reached by normal progression of things given that the reported deficit as at October 2002 (10 months) was already Lm91million. In no other period in the last five years was the government cash flow positive in the last 2 months. Last year a deficit of Lm82 million by October 2002 ended at Lm86 million by December, up by a marginal Lm4 million in the last 2 months.

`His strong assertion that great progress has been made in addressing the budget deficit is disproved by his own figures` To finish at Lm78 million in accordance with the Minister`s revised figure government cash flow would have to be net positive by Lm13 million in the last 2 months. This cannot happen in the normal course of events unless more financial transactions are engineered similar in scope to the MIA sale and leaseback deal.

But let`s for a moment assume that the Lm78 million will be magically hit by end December. Adding on to this the one-off revenue flows from the infamous MIA deal (Lm21 million) and Income from the one-off special registration scheme (Lm7 million) would bring the structural deficit back to Lm106 million.` This is exactly were the budget for 1998 was projected to end and would have ended had Min Dalli not moved in to change the accounting policies and HP-like turn a deficit of Lm82 million as at` September 1998 to Lm150 million by the year end.

`The critics seem to have been put under a spell like the Dementor in HP`s next instalment The Prisoner of Azkaban.` So reality is that Lm242 million tax revenues increases over 1999-2002 have served for nothing but to finance increased expenditure. So much so that over the last four years national debt increased by Lm305 million, privatisation revenues generated Lm105 million and extraordinary revenue from sinking fund wind-up and MIA structured deals produced so far Lm58 million giving total financing of Lm468 million averaging Lm115 million pa. which is nearer to the real average size of the deficit these last 4 years.

Rather than a budget this is more like a fudge-it. In the face of all this fudging, the Press, especially the English language press, seems spellbound ignoring the reality underneath the thin gloss surface coating and giving benign though timid approval to the budget.

Nobody seems to question how is it that ordinary expenditure that increased by Lm43 million in 2002 over 2001 in spite of 2002 being a wage freeze year for public employees, will in 2003 increase only by Lm20 million, of which Lm6 million will go for new support to local farmers and fishermen leaving just Lm14 million to fund increased operational expenditure including wage increases.

HP`s magic spell seemed to have frozen all critics analytical skills and forced them to join the chorus lauding Dalli for succeeding in his 9 budgets to sink us up to our ears in debt and getting an average real growth increase over 2001 -2003 of under 2%p.a.. The critics seem to have been put under a spell like the Dementor in HP`s next instalment The Prisoner of Azkaban.

Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets

Maltastar   
 

Reading the Public Finance statistics published by the NSO for the 10 months to October 2002 and hearing the Minister of Finance reciting his budget speech cannot but bring to mind the latest hit in the box office – Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets.

The accompanying Table shows that the deficit for the 10 months in question, after adjusting for the Lm21 million extraordinary revenue from MIA is Lm112 million compared to Lm82 million last year and Lm74 million where Labour left it in 1998.

 

 

	January – October
	Lm millions
					1998	1999	2000	2001	2002
	Ordinary Revenue				441	458	499	527	563
	less MIA extraordinary item								-21
	Net ordinary Revenue				441	458	499	527	542	A
	Recurrent Expenditure				413	427	448	485	524
	Public Debt Servicing				45	46	54	57	61
	Capital expenditure				64	72	68	74	76
	Total Expenditure				522	545	570	616	661	B
	less Contribution to Sinking Funds
		and loan repayments
		included in Public Debt Servicing			7	7	7	7	7	C
	Structural Deficit		A-B+C		-74	-80	-64	-82	-112
	Central Government Debt				730	835	896	1,021	1,035

 

 

“Harry Potter waves his magic wand and to ensure that he establishes a benchmark purposely negatively inflated to make him look good in future comparisons, the deficit is transformed into Lm150 million by December 1998”

 

 

This shows a growth of 37% in the structural deficit over last year. That is the reality.

In moves Harry Potter. He assures us that by the end of the year the deficit will in fact be Lm78 million almost exactly as originally projected.

 

 

Strange things came to happen in the last 2 months of the year. In October 1998 the structural deficit according to the NSO was Lm74 million. Harry Potter waves his magic wand and to ensure that he establishes a benchmark purposely negatively inflated to make him look good in future comparisons, the deficit is transformed into Lm150 million by December 1998.

In the year 2002 the magic wand works in a different way. A deficit of Lm112 million by October 2002 is magically squeezed down to Lm78 million in the last 2 months. This means a positive net performance of Lm35 million in the last 2 months including the Lm21 extraordinary revenue from MIA.

In no period of November-December in the last 4 years has the government achieved a positive cash-flow. But waving his magic wand Malta’s Harry Potter brings the figures down wherever he wants them to.

“After the election the reality will knock and just as it knocks to us all as we walk out of the cinema theatre after the film show”

And now to the Chamber of Secrets. Clearly the Minister will only have to give due account of the actual figures when the real figures for December 2002 will be published sometime in April next year. Only then we will be able to truly open the Chamber of Secrets.

Part of the secret has already been uncovered through the special extraordinary revenue engineered through the sale and leaseback of the airport terminal. But where is the rest? We just have to wait to until we explore the inner tunnels of the chamber of secrets.

 

 

For next year the Minister is projecting a deficit of Lm75 million which marginally erodes the deficit projected for the end of this year. What the government has done to balance the books and make up for the extraordinary revenue generated this year that cannot be repeated next year is the inclusion of Lm23 million grants from the EU.

Let’s hope the government will at least achieve 23% of the Lm100 million it had promised for every year in its last year in office. But history does not augur well.

In his budget speech for 1996 delivered on 22nd November 1995 the Minister had projected a deficit of Lm39 million for 1996. Reality, when it was discovered by the incoming Labour government in the last 2 months of 1996, was that the deficit was Lm112 million.

The problem is that real problems of the world do not respond to Harry Potter style solutions. Government is wasting too much energy hiding the problems rather than addressing them. But the government hopes it can keep the Harry Potter show going until the next election through a budget like this. After the election reality will knock, just as it knocks us all as we walk out of the cinema theatre after the film show.