Azzjoni jew re-Azzjoni

Il-Kullhadd 

 

Taghmel differenza kbira ghal partit politiku jekk l-istrategija tieghu jwettaqix fuq bazi ta’ azzjoni jew re-azzjoni.

Kull partit politiku jfittex li biex ikollu success ha jilhaq l-ghanijiet tieghu jipprova jiddomina l-agenda tal-pajjiz billi jmexxi fuq bazi ta’ azzjoni u mhux joqghod jirrejagixxi ghal dak li jghid haddiehor.

Wara telfa elettorali il-Partit Laburista qed jithabat biex iwettaq din l-istrategija. Filwaqt li huwa bzonnjuz u essenzjali li nanalizzaw u niflu ghaliex is-success tant mixtieq u mwieghed ma rrizultax fl-ahhar elezzjoni, ma rridux inhallu spazji biex l-agenda tal-pajjiz jaghmilha haddiehor.

Huwa ghalhekk f’waqtu li meta l-gvern qed kull ma jmur jigi dahru mal-hajt, hekk kif johorgu fatti u figuri li jhammrulu wiccu u jigi stabbilit dejjem aktar car kemm il-partit nazzjonalista ma kienx jixraqlu li jerga jiehu l-gvern, il-Partit Laburista jrid juru ruhu oppozizzjoni attiva li tiddefendi l-interessi tal-pajjiz u l-aktar tal-haddiema. Ghalhekk filwaqt li l-Partit Laburista ghandu jiehu mertu talli dejjem spjega car u bla habi il-qaghda kritika tal-finanzi u l-ekonomija tal-pajjiz, huwa wkoll mehtieg li bhala oppozizzjoni serja l-Partit Laburista jkun parti mis-soluzzjoni tal-problema li qed tifni l-pajjiz.

Fl-istess hin izda l-Partit ma jridx jibqa’ lura milli jiftah lilu nnifsu biex bil-galbu u bla habi jara ghaliex ma gbidnix warajna magguranza qawwija fl-ahhar elezzjoni minkejja li l-poplu kien imwissi car u tond dwar il-mod irresponsabbli u perikoluz li l-gvern nazzjonalista kien qed imexxi il-finanzi u l-ekonomija tal-pajjiz.

Bla ma nizvijaw l-agenda nazzjonali milli nuru lill-gvern gharwien quddiem il-poplu bil-weghdiet li saru qabel l-elezzjoni, ma rridux li nahbu l-analizi tar-rizultat ta’ l-elezzjoni biex ma nhallux lin-nazzjonalisti jikkritikawna.

Fl-ewwel sena wara l-elezzjoni il-partit tellief bilfors irid jaghmel ezami tal-kuxjenza sewwa. U dan ma jistax isir bejn erba’ minn nies. Minn ta’ lanqas irid jasal sal-livell tal-konferenza generali fejn kwazi elf delegat jiehdu l-aktar decizjonijiet importanti tal-Partit. Jiddeciedu il-policies principali, jaghzlu l-leadership u japprovaw il-programm elettorali u l-kandidati.

Ghalhekk nifimha li huwa dover li l-analizi tar-rizultat ta’ l-elezzjoni tasal s’ghand id-delegati tal-konferenza generali biex dawn ikunu jistghu jiehdu decizjonijiet importanti li mistennija minnhom b’mod infurmat.

U hawn iqum il-punt li huwa impossibbli li dokument intern jistqassam ma kwazi elf ruh u jibqa’ intern. Ghalhekk trid taghzel. Jew jibqa intern u jarawh ftit hafna b’mod li d-delegati jigu kostretti jivvutaw bla ma jkunu infurmati jew jitqassam sewwa u ma jibqax intern.

Jien bil-wisq nippreferi t-tieni wahda. L-izvantagg li dokument intern jispicca esternalizzat huwa bil-wisq anqas mill-izvantagg li d-delegati jigu biex jiddeciedu fil-ghama.

Nhoss li ghandna wisq sensittivita’ dwar dak li jghidu nazzjonalisti u l-media ta’ kontrina. Filwaqt li dan naghtu kasu, ma nistghux noqghodu nirrejagixxu ghal kritika ta’ haddiehor. L-agenda taghna naghmluha ahna. Naghmlu dak li jaqbel lilna, dak li jaqbel lill-partit u haddiehor jghid li jrid. Ibqghu zguri li l-kritika ta’ l-avversarji ma ssirx ghax iriduna ahjar. Issir biex taghmlilna l-hsara u ghalhekk ma ghandnix natuha importanza zejda, tant li nieqfu milli naghmlu affarijiet kif inhuma fl-interess taghna biex ma jikkritikawnix l-ohrajn.

Kemm il-darba esperjenzajtha din. Jekk issir kritika u nazzjonalisti ma jghidu xejn allura ma gara xejn. Jekk in-nazzjonalisti jesponuha allura qishom gibdulna l-ispaga u noqomsu. Flok niggudikaw il-kritika fuq il-merti taghha niggudikaw fuq kif jirrejagixxu n-nazzjonalisti. Kien hawn min sahansitra ghadda l-gudizzju bla ma qara l-original u qaghad fuq x’qalu ta’ kontrina.

Dan zball. L-agenda taghna naghmluha ahna. Irridu nagixxu u mhux nirrejagixxu. Naghmlu li hemm bzonn specjalment fi zmien daqstant il-boghod mill-elezzjoni u mhux naghtu importanza sproporzjonata lil media u lil kritika avversarja. Fuq kollox filwaqt li l-media ghandha l-influwenza taghha ma rridux nassumu li l-media kollox u li bla parita’ fil-media ma nirbhux. Inkella tista tghid li ma ghandna cans qatt nirbhu elezzjoni ghax ir-rizorsi taghna qatt m’huma se jlahhqu mal-partit tas-sinjuri.

L-izvantagg li ghandna u jibqa’ jkollna fil-media irridu naghmlu tajjeb ghalih b’policies tajba, policies cari , policies li jinfdu l-qalb u l-mohh ta’ l-elettorat ghax biex tirbah trid kontenuit tajjeb l-ewwel u media effettiva t-tieni.

Ghalhekk nhoss li f’dan iz-zmien ta’analizi, zmien ta’ riflessjoni, zmien ta’ hsieb mil-gdid ta’ stratetiji li la jigu maghzula jifdal mill-anqas erba snin biex jitwasslu u jikkonvincu sa elezzjoni ohra, hemm bzonn ta’ aktar spazju ghall-analizi, ghal hsieb ta’ min ma jaqbilx f’kollox, u zgur ma naqbilx li din ticcahhad lid-delegati li fl-ahhar mill-ahhar permezz tal-Konferenza Generali ghandhom ir-responsabbilta’ ta’ l-ahhar ghazla.

A Perverse Feeling

The Malta Independent 

A perverse feeling started creeping inside me this week which almost made me feel ashamed of myself. For the first time in more than four months I almost started feeling good that Labour was not elected.

Just imagine if Labour were in power and we start getting the sort of news we have been getting recently extended this week by the downgrade of our sovereign domestic credit rating by Standard & Poor’s.

Just imagine if a Labour government would announce that the fiscal deficit would be in excess of 7% of the GDP rather than the planned 4.5%. Imagine if a new Labour government were to announce that the public health system is in crisis and that the system was so unsustainable that many free services will have to be subjected to (subject to means testing) payment.

Imagine if Standard & Poor’s were to announce a sovereign downgrade 4 months into the life of a new Labour government. Imagine if a Labour government were to be forced to eat humble pie and re-open, purely as a fiscal crisis revenue boosting measure, an Investment Registration Scheme which ceremoniously was closed off as a once-only concession in December 2002.

Imagine if a Labour government delays the issue of social security payments to the most needful of society on the pretext that it has to weed out abusers thus making 999 sweat and hurt uselessly to track down the single abuser.

If this were to happen under a newly-elected Labour government we would undoubtedly have had a barrage of criticism from the PN in opposition and their friendly media that all this crisis owes it origin to the fact that the new government abandoned its plan for EU membership. And whilst we now know that it is no so, a new Labour government would have had a problem proving otherwise.

So yes, for the first time I have been entertaining an uncontrollable feeling that may be it is better this way. May be this is what the Maltese need to come to conclusion which a narrow segment of truly informed amongst us have long reached, i.e. that no foreign or external agents will solve problems for us; that we have to find the inner strength within us to address our weaknesses; that the most likely benefit of EU membership is not the bureaucracy or the prestige it involves, but the discipline to do what needs to be done without further excuses and procrastination.

If we had the Californian recall system there is no doubt that it could be used to re-write the script. With Labour belatedly but boldly accepting that the people’s choice for EU membership is superior to party policies and must be respected with determination and conviction, with our newly found knowledge that the economic situation was being misrepresented until the government could limp past the elections, with acceptance that EU membership on its own is no panacea and true solutions must come from within us, I have no doubt that the electorate would readily recall a Labour government to take us forward from this point on.

But sharing little with California, other than the Mediterranean weather and a mess in public finances, Malta is condemned to face this crisis with a fatigued government that has ran out of creative ideas and who is shamed to admit the problems and consequently keeps dangerously delaying the application of real though unpalatable solutions.

May be if it were possible for politicians to raise above themselves and act in a truly national interest as is required by the impending crisis, the government would readily admit the mess and offer the opposition a power/responsibility sharing arrangement in exchange for their disposition to join a national plan to render our economy competitive in a global world before we get buried beneath our perfectly made-in-Malta financial mess.  

The Evidence Mounts

Maltastar  

 

Two pieces of news in Monday morning’s papers continue to accumulate evidence of the crisis ruling the state of public finance.

‘Standard & Poor’s Agency lowers Malta’s local credit ratings’ was the headline news in this morning’s Times. Clearly S & P were unnerved by the data released after the election both regarding the final outturn for 2002 as well as interim results for 2003 up to June. All figures show a sharp adverse departure from previous predictions and bring to nought the assertions underpinning their previous rating that public finance was under control and getting better.

S&P have shown their irritation that it has already been conceded that this years’ budget deficit will be a far cry from the budgeted 4.6% of the GDP from the 5.2% of last year. The final outturn is expected to exceed 7% of GDP. S&P have also shown their concern at the speed with which public debt is accumulating and they forecast that public debt plus the Freeport guaranteed bond for USD250 million will on their own reach 73% of the GDP up from the 69% of 2001. The Maastricht criteria for Euro adoption puts a limit of 60% and candidates over this limit will only be admitted if they prove they are on a mend path not on a deteriorating trend as is our case.

In fact S&P spokesman was quite explicit. Apart from lowering the rating on local debt it warned of further downgrades as follows: “Failure to decisively address current trends in the fiscal deficit would undermine prospects of an early participation in EMU and weaken the government’s credit standing”

 

The Finance Minister was reported to have commented that there is a dire need for a change of mentality to convince people that the government does not provide money like money from heaven. The Minister added that a broad-based effort is needed to deal with the issue in an objective and national manner, rather than play out for the gallery.

What a difference a few months make! Just a few months back in a TV debate during the election campaign when I had made the same sort of criticism that S&P are now making, the Minister was over-flowing with confidence that all was well, that people can put their mind at rest and the manna from heaven would rain more plentifully once we re-elect him to power and once we join the EU.

I do certainly agree that the crisis is in such a deep measure that the government on its own cannot handle it, and needs all the help it can get in the national interest to avoid a painful financial collapse. But this should not exclude a full investigation on whether the government purposely misrepresented the state of public finance both when presenting the last budget in November 2002 as well as when in the election campaign in March/April 2003 it consistently re-assured us that public finance were in good shape and getting better.

The second piece of news which mounts the evidence of the crisis was found in The Malta Independent informing that tomorrow the government will announce the re-opening of the Investment Registration Scheme. This Scheme was closed last year when we were assured that it was a one-time only chance for people to regularise their income tax and exchange control infringements of their foreign investments by paying a once only amnesty fee.

Re-opening it so soon is nothing other than a crisis measure to tap some new sources of revenue in order to cushion the over-blown deficit of this year. In fact the budget had projected Lm6 million special revenues from ancillary but unexplained sources. Is this the source? Did the government plan to re-open the scheme when it was re-assuring all that that was a one-off exercise?

Portfolio

Strategy 1: No Risk Lm 1006.847
Strategy 2: Medium Risk Lm 1011.590 (after Lm40 charges)
Strategy 3: High Risk Lm Lm 1191.366 (after Lm20 charges)
Strategy 4 High Risk For Currency . Lm 1066.390 (after Lm40 charges)

All prices and rates of exchange are the latest available on Saturday 23rd August 2003.

All strategies continued to move forward but the biggest leap was registered in strategy 4 which is heavily weighted on foreign equities.

Strategy 3 which consists entirely of Maltacom’s equity also moved slightly ahead. But this strategy has made nearly 20% since 1st June when the portfolio was started and given some disappointment with Maltacom not moving to an interim dividend and their taking a full charge of a VAT claim which they are still defending ( such measure could in fact weaken their position in defending their claim before the VAT Appeals Board) I decided it is time for profit taking . I am encashing Strategy 3 and keeping Lm1191,366 less 1% encashment charge = Lm1180 in cash liquid form until I decide where to invest next in the coming few weeks.

No other changes were made to the portfolios.

New Old Revelations

The Malta Independent on Sunday

 
In the post-election spring we have been having some new old revelations.

The government had to put a fake look of surprise in announcing that the budget deficit for the current year will exceed the original target by some 60% to reach 7% of the GDP rather than the planned 4.5%.

Having given repeated re-assurances in the run-up to last election that government finances were solid, improving and altogether sustainable, it had to pretend that things have suddenly turned sour. It attempted to blame the international situation but this has no basis of credibility. Since end March the international economy has taken a sharp turn for the better with US and Japanese economy signalling a return to strong growth recovery and the EU economy is clearly pointing to a worst-is-over situation.

The government also tried to give a thin gloss of credibility to its fake surprise by referring to the need to face extraordinary expenditure related to the holding of the referendum and general elections. This is even less credible as both were predictable with clinical precision at the budget preparation stage.

The simple truth is that the precarious state of public finance constitutes no new revelation. It is old hat.` It is yesterday`s news which was being camouflaged until the electoral contest was out of the way to avoid an electoral liability for the incumbent administration.

Now the meeting with reality has to be faced.` With another electoral contest 5 years down the road there is no way the country`s financial structure can withstand such long term neglect, even if we had opted to shy away from the discipline of EU membership and the consequential adoption of Euro single currency. Reality is that we have a budget deficit of the same absolute size we had in 1996 and that we have amassed huge amount of debt of these over these seven years of neglect and frittered away no less than Lm157 million privatisation revenues.

Unavoidably there are no easy solutions. Problems that are allowed to accumulate unaddressed for a long time cannot be solved with the flick of a finger. Solving the problems from the revenue side is short-sighted, self-defeating and impractical. `Short-sighted and self-defeating in that imposition of higher taxes would go against the international grain where countries are giving tax stimulus to revive growth. Impractical because the old pool of uncollected tax has been significantly absorbed and the new measures for speedier collection have already delivered and cannot be expected deliver speedier cash flow unless we are made to pay our taxes in advance.

Consequently government has now to address the true source of weakness of public finance ` the expenditure side. In preparation for such unpalatable choice we have had additional old new revelations this week with particular relevance to the public health sector.

As if we have suddenly discovered something was not readily evident, the Health Minister announced that the situation in the public health sector is alarming and that the system is unsustainable. Whilst giving practical examples of abuse in the system which are laughable and could be put right by simple straightforward administrative decisions, the unsustainability of the system is much more deep-rooted. Health diagnosis and cure is getting much more sophisticated and effective. But it is also getting much more expensive. To what extent can the state afford to provide cure service for all irrespective of one`s means when limited resources are causing scarcity of medicine or service to the real needful at the lower rank of society?

These are issues that have to be addressed. Government should stop putting on fake surprise as if these problems emerged overnight and conduct a diligent exercise to understand how the system has been brought to its present state of alarm and unsustainability. This would help to devise solutions that are clinical and effective without major disruptions to society at large.

And working on the cockroach theory one can be sure that there are many more stories of unsustainability in the pipeline which will have to be addressed. If there is one cockroach there must be others. Is Air Malta sustainable without substantial re-structuring including labour shedding and leaning of management structures, if it is to face competition both in its core business from cheap no-frills airlines as well as in having monopoly fat removed from non-core related services at the airport? 

Can we afford the substantial subsidy for water production and distribution` Can Enemalta continue to lose so many millions even at operational level when it needs a strong cash flow not only to keep up with outstanding financial commitments related to past investment but also needs to finance` substantial new investment to keep up with the increased energy demands`

Can Freeport continue to demand of the Exchequer year in year out some USD 18 million to pay the interest on its international financial obligation`

There is no use pretending these problems do not exist. No use putting on fake surprise when inevitably they have to be brought to the surface. These are all new old revelations.   

Direzzjoni

Il-Kullhadd 
 

Ma niskantax li fadal element zghir, imma zgur mhux ta’ min jittrakurah, ta’ laburisti genwini li qed isbuha difficli biex jifhmu u jaccettaw il-policy li addotta l-Partit Laburista wara l-elezzjoni li Malta bhala membru fl-UE hija rejalta li ma nistghux nibdluha. Li l-interess tal-Partit jitlob li naghrfu din ir-rejalta’ u naraw kif ser nikkonvincu l-magguranza li huwa l-Partit Laburista li kapaci jaghmel l-ahjar mill-opportunitajiet li toffri din ir-rejalta’ gdida.

Ma niskantax ghax wara li l-Partit kien ghamel policy qawwija fuq punt ta’ principju dwar li Malta ma jaqblilhix bi shubija fl-UE, tant li gieghel lil hafna laburisti jghatu l-vot taghhom lil PN la kellhom jaghzlu bejn il-Parit Laburista u shubija fl-UE, issa mhux la kemm tibdel l-imhuh u tinsa dak li kien ilu jinghad ghal hafna snin qisu m’hu xejn.

Izda r-rejalta’ tibqa’ dik li hi. Li jekk tassew irridu li l-Partit ikollu cans li jirbah il-gvern ma nistghux noqghodu nimxu lura u ‘l quddiem fuq policies daqstant importanti. Dawn huma passi irriversibbli li la darba jsiru ma tistax tipprova tregga l-arlogg lura daqs li kieku ma saru xejn. Jekk taghmel hekk taghmel hafna aktar deni milli gid fosthom billi tibqa’ ccahhad lil Partit mil-gvern minn fejn biss jista’ jwettaq il-policies li jemmen fihom.

Ghalhekk naqbel b’qawwa li ghal quddiem kull diskors li ghandna nhallu xi bieb jew tieqa miftuha biex nohorgu ‘l Malta mill-UE huwa suwicidali. M’inhiex nghid li haddiehor ma ghandux dritt li jahsibha hekk anzi nifhem li hemm diffikulta’ biex certu nies jghaddu minn pozizzjoni estrema ghal ohra.

Izda jekk irridu nkunu gvern alternattiv ma nistghux inkunu sors ta’ instabilita li jgerrex l-investiment u li jghaddi l-pajjiz min trawmi li anke pajjizi ferm akbar li jifilhu jaghmlu pass bhal dan qas biss joholmu li jaghmluh. Ghax sa hames snin ohra l-ekonomija tkun ilha fuq 4 snin integrata ma suq wiehed fl-UE u mhux la kemm tizgancjaha bla ma tqaccat it-tajjeb li jkun beda jinbet wara li tkun assorbejt ga il-mistura tar-ristrutturar ekonomiku li ser jigi imponut fuqna mid-dixxiplina tas-suq ta’ l-UE.

Jien dejjem sostnejt li filwaqt kont u ghadni nemmen li t-triq ta’ partnership kienet tkun ahjar ghal pajjizna, ma jfissirx li shubija fl-UE tfisser xi desert tal-wahx. Hafna drabi, barra jew gewwa, jekk naghmlux dezert jew gnien ihaddar jiddependi minna, mil-ghaqal u l-bzulija taghna u mis-serjeta’ li biha mmexxu pajjizna. Bla serjeta’ l-ebda UE ma se ssalvana u nizzerzqu fl-ghaks li jgib mieghu il-hela, l-ghazz u t-tberbiq bla sens. Bis-serjeta u l-bzulija nistghu nirnexxu anke fl-UE basta nahtfu l-opportunitajiet u ma noqghodux nibzghu bla htiega mill-iskumdita’ li ggib maghha l-bidla biex mill-ghazz nghaddu ghax-xoghol.

Jien li jdejjaqni huwa ghaliex kellna nitilfu elezzjoni biex naslu ghal punt li naccettaw il-verdett tal-poplu dwar l-UE. La issa qed naccettaw il-verdett tal-poplu dwar l-UE bhala rejalta’ gdida, x’zammna milli naccettaw dan qabel li referendum fuq il-materja kellu jkun l-ahhar kelma tal-poplu u mhux inzerzqu il-bicca sa l-elezzjoni? Ghaliex ikkonstriggejna lil hafna nies, inkluz hafna laburisti genwini, jivvutaw PN mhux ghax jemmenu li l-PN jixraqlu jkun fil-gvern izda ghax fehmu li pajjizna ma setax jitlef ic-cans li jidhol fl-UE bil-pakkett ga negozjat u maghluq?

Forsi ma kienx ikun ahjar kieku gvern laburista jbaxxi rasu ghar-rieda tal-poplu dwar l-UE, milli issa li qed ikollna inbaxxu rasna mill-oppozizzjoni?

Ghalhekk l-energija taghna ghal futur ma ghandix tkun biex nippruvaw inreggghu l-arlogg lura u fil-process noqghodu naghtu rigal wara l-iehor lin-nazzjonalisti biex jibqghu fil-gvern meta ma jixirqilhomx u meta l-poplu mxebba bihom.

L-energija taghna irridu nuzawha biex wara li nifhmu li kien zball li gieghelna l-poplu jaghzel bejna u bejn shubija fl-UE, nibnu policies ghal futur li jkunu accettati mhux biss mil-maggoranzi tad-delegati tal-Partit izda accettati wkoll mil-maggornza tal-poplu malti. Ghax jekk nibqghu fl-oppozizzjoni anke l-ahjar policies ma jiswew xejn ghax mill-oppozizzjoni tista’ biss tiddefendi mhux twettaq it-twemmin tieghek. 

A Winter Scent of Spring

The Malta Independent 

We were promised a new spring following the people`s vote in favour of EU membership. Spring bears images of re-birth, a new life, a new beginning, with milder weather and kind showers carrying the scent of new flowers in bloom.

Clearly we are getting none of this. Whilst the international economy seems to have had a real spring in the second quarter following the uncertainties of the first quarter, in Malta we have seen just the opposite.

Whilst there is a growing conviction in the US and Japan, and to a lesser extent in the EU and in eastern European country candidates in line for membership, that their economies are now set to start growing again at healthier rates of the late 90`s, here the economic news points to a deteriorating situation which the government itself now defining it in terms of alarming and unsustainable.

For those economic analysts who can look over the cheap gloss of partisan propaganda dished out prior to the electoral tests of March/April there are no surprises in the developments on the local front.` Indeed what was being hidden or patched up before the elections is now being allowed to come out in the open as a carefully planned programme for mind-set formation about the tough re-structuring measures necessary to address our structural economic faults.

Indeed on an optimistic note I can muse that the promised spring is the realistic acknowledgement that we have to go through an economic winter before we can get there.

And indeed it is healthy, at least as a starting point for the necessary cure measures, that it has finally been accepted that it is not true that government finance is sustainable and getting better. It is bad and getting worse and this year it will hit 7% of the GDP if no additional measures are taken and could reach as high as 9% if the grant moneys projected to be received under the financial protocols with Italy and the EU are delayed by bureaucratic procedures.

It is also refreshing that finally the government had to come out on record and admit that with the Tal-Qroqq facility and all, public health system is unsustainable and has to be re-dimensionised to remind one and all that there is no free lunch anywhere.

Clearly it is offensive for true democrats that such grim reality was disguised under bright but fake gloss until the popular vote was secured. Indeed as I expressed last week a recall would be much more appropriate here than in California. But facts are facts and a meeting with reality could be delayed but never altogether avoided.

It is also refreshing that from the opposition side we are seeing signs of overdue realism in unwinding of counter-productive policies and situations which cost the MLP and the country dearly in being denied a much needed alternation of power.

The MLP`s determination that Malta must now do its best to make the most of EU membership is sane and commendable. Though it is well understandable that elements within still consider EU non-membership as a strategic unbendable principle, it is clear that a much larger stream are not only determined to accept the new reality but indeed to question why the MLP had to lose an election to get to this point.

The decisions to remove all boycotts and participate fully in the Electoral Commission and all media programmes is sensible and undoubtedly bear the prints of the new deputy leaders who have long been critical of the standing boycotts. Labour will no doubt persist in its endeavours to make the Electoral Commission as truly autonomous through being endowed with a Chairman who commands the confidence of both sides of the House, it cannot allow the government a free ride as it did by keeping its nominees away from the Commission.

The same applies for the 'Where`s Everybody` programmes. With or without the MLP`s participation it remains scandalous that the national publicly funded PBS allows such current affairs programmes to be run by third party contractors outside the umbrella of` its own ably-equipped and well-funded newsroom. But keeping the boycott eternally beyond the need to make a point and win concessions only harmed the MLP not the producers.

If we brace ourselves for a winter of re-structuring we might emerge into a spring better and sooner than it is presently realistic to expect. 

Insostenibbli

L-Orizzont 

Minn wara l-elezzjoni ‘l hawn kollox sar insostenibbli. Sa qabel l-elezzjoni il-finanzi tal-gvern kienu fis-sod. Issa il-gvern ammetta li ghandna deficit qawwi li ma jistax jigi traskurat izjed.

Donnu waqghet is-sahta fuq pajjizna minn April ‘l hawn. Fil-waqt li l-ekonomija dinjija tidher li stejqret sew fit-tieni kwart tas-sena wara li l-ewwel kwart kien imdallam bil-gwerra ta’ l-Iraq, f’Malta gara l-kuntrarju. Ix-xemx li kienet tizreg sat-12 t’ April tghattiet bi dlam iswed li qed jhedded il-maltemp qawwi.

Nhar it-tnejn li ghadda il-gurnal The Times , f’attentat car biex il-gvern jipprepara l-opinjoni pubblika ghal mizuri iebsa, habbar fuq il-faccata ta’ quddiem b’ittri kbar li s-sistema tas-sahha hija insostenibbli. U mar izjed minn hekk ghax qalilna li s-sitwazzjoni prezenti hija allarmanti.

Ipprova mur fittex xi haga dwar dan fil-programm elettorali tal-PN. Ma ssib xejn. Sa April kollox kien sostenibbli. Kollox kien hafif. Kollox kien miexi fuq ir-rubini. Anke fis-settur tas-sahha sar hafna ftahir bl-investiment li qed isir fl-isptar tal-Qroqq u anke fl-isptarijiet ezistenti halli jzommu s-sistema ghaddejja sa ma jsir it-trasferiment lejn tal-Qroqq. Saru cerimonji u vizti bil-cameras tat-TV biex juruna kemm se nkunu servuti tajjeb minn dan l-isptar. Mhux talli ma qalulniex li s-sistema tas-sahha kienet insostenibbli, talli sahqu fuq li sahqu kemm se nkunu servuti ahjar.

Issa l-affarijiet inbidlu. Issa l-elezzjoni ghaddiet. Issa ma jimpurtax li nwarrbu l-holm u nitkellmu fuq ir-rejalta’. U r-rejalta’ hija li dan il-gvern kien qed juza il-makkinarju propagandistiku kollu biex jurina stampa falza. Stampa li l-gvern kien jaf li mhix minna. Stampa li kien car li bilfors kella tibdel kuluritha wara l-elezzjoni.

U hemm ahna llum. Il-Ministru tas-Sahha qalilna li ma jistax ikun li spiza ta’ medicini titla’ minn Lm5.5 miljuni fl-1995 ghal Lm17 il-miljun din-is-sena. U ma tistax targumenta ma dan. Il-hela mhix tajba. M’ahniex xi pajjiz sinjur u kull sold li nonfqu irridu nahdmu ghalih. Izda ghaliex ma qalulniex sitt xhur ilu dan. Ma konniex nafuh li mhux sostenibbli sitt xhur ilu? Mela l-ispluzjoni fl-ispiza saret fl-ahhar sitt xhur?

U kif dawn l-istejjer johrogu, ma kull gurnata, inkompli nrodd is-slaleb bil-maqlub. Ghax aktar naghraf u nipperswadi ruhi li l-poplu mhux veru ivvota ghal partit nazzjonalista fil-gvern. Il-poplu mhux iblah. Bil-propaganda b’kollox il-poplu jaf li s-sitwazzjoni kienet kerha qabel l-elezzjoni u ghadha kerha llum. Ma sarux dizastri naturali jew waqa’ xi kastig mis-sema, li jista jiggustifika l-bidla.

Jien konvint aktar minn qabel li l-poplu ghazel it-triq ta’ l-UE bhala mezz ta’ dixxiplina biex jehles lil pajjiz minn flagell ikbar li jigi fuqna jekk l-affarijiet ikomplu jigu traskurati u mohbija. U forsi il-fatt li l-gvern qed johrog il-problemi fil-berah b’mod li ma kienx jaghmel qabel, hu frott is-sens ta’ rejalizmu li iggib maghha ir-rejalta gdida ta’ shubija fl-UE.

Lil min staqsini jekk l-UE ghandiex x’taqsam mat-telfa tal-Partit Laburista ghandi risposta cara. Iva ghandha x’taqsam hafna. Tant ghandha x’taqsam li bi strategija ta’ jew gvern laburista jew shubija fl-UE tajna premju lin-nazzjonalisti li jkomplu fil-gvern minkejja rekord miskin fit-tmexxija interna tal-pajjiz. Tant ghandha x’taqsam li bilfors iggieghlni nistaqsi li la accettajna l-UE bhala rejalta’ gdida wara l-elezzjoni ghala kellna ghalfejn nitilfu elezzjoni biex naslu s’hawn?

Dawn mistoqsijiet li jistaqsihom kull min tassew irid gid lil partit. Min tassew irid jibni u jfejjaq. Ghax il-fejqan tal-laburisti jista jigi biss minn haga wahda. Minn rebha li tpoggi il-partit fil-gvern fejn jixraqlu. Halli jkun jista’ jmexxi bl-onesta’ u l-entuzjajzmu ha jiddefendi l-interessi tan-nies tax-xoghol li huma l-unika forza li tista’ ggib il-vera bidla halli lil pajjizna nimmodernizzawh kif jixraq.

Ghalhekk nemmen li dan huwa zmien krucjali biex niipreparaw pedamenti sodi ghal futur. M’huwiex rejalstiku min jahseb li nistghu nibnu fuq it-terrapien biex ma naqalghux trab. Hu car li hemm opinjonijiet differenti dwar kif ghandna nimxu. Din haga naturali li wara disfatta elettorali johorgu linji ta’ hsieb diversi. Flok nohonquhom ghandna naghtuhom spazju. Fl-ahhar mill-ahhar il-policies tal-Partit johorgu minn decizjonijiet tal-Konferneza tal-futur li taghraf ir-rejaltajiet tal-lum u mhux minn decizjonijiet li saru fil-passat f’kuntest differenti.

Ghalhekk ma niddejjaqx insostni li wara li johrog ir-rapport ta’ analizi ghandhom jingibdu l-konkluzjonijiet minnu, jingharfu ir-responsabbiltajiet tad-disfatta, u mmorru ghal konferenza biex hemm naghzlu il-policies tal-futur. Hekk titlob id-demokrazija u d-decizjoni tal-magguranza torbot lil kullhadd. Anke lil min ma jaqbilx. Sa dak in-nhar ghandna nirrispettaw l-opinjoni ta’ kullhadd u mhux nimponu l-opinjoni taghna qabel ma ssir diskussjoni shiha fil-Konferenza.

In-nazzjonalisti tant dghajjfu l-istruttura finanzjarji tal-gvern li hafna affarijiet li bnewhom gvernijiet laburisti fis-sebghinijiet issa saru insostenibbli. Irid ikun l-ghaqal ta’ gvern laburista futur li jerga jgibhom sostenibbli. U biex naslu ghal dan dan irridu naddottaw policies sostenibbli li jinghazlu wara evalwazzjoni tal-fehmiet kollha mil-konferenza nazzjonali.

Pension Crisis - What Crisis (Part II)

Maltastar 
 

 

The only counter-argument could be that residential property, though loaded with value does not produce the cash streams necessary to supplement the inadequate state pensions. True, but not quite. There is no reason why schemes could not be devised to turn property equity into revenue streams. At the very least pensioners could sell their probably largish house and move to smaller but still adequate (given quite different accommodation needs during pensionable age) residence releasing equity value and use such released liquid wealth to sustain their pensions.

In some instances it would be possible to divide the house and rent out part of it which is not required to live comfortably as a pensioner. This could relieve demand pressure for new building in this nutshell sized island, and bring down rents to affordable levels make renting an affordable alternative for young people.

But more practically, insurance companies could offer annuities against the value of the property. Basically the property could be sold to the insurance company at current market rates and rented back on a long term basis for a duration linked to the death of the last surviving partner. The annuity payment will cover both the rent and a surplus which would be used to supplement the state pension. Thus the longer they live the pensioners would eat into the value of the annuity on termination, which value would be held for account of the estate upon the death of the last surviving partner.

The complainants to such an arrangement could be the heirs. But why should they? Do they have a right to their inheritance superior to the right of the pensioners to live comfortably their pension age? Should the state offer fiscal incentives for supplementary pensions which in the end benefit estate beneficiaries to inherit assets they have contributed nothing for and on which they pay little or no tax given that there are no estate duties?

I think if viewed on this basis we can probably conclude that we do not really have a pension crisis. We can carry the case further and suggest that the government pegs the maximum pension at its current nominal level and allow the pensions and similar benefits to be paid strictly from the contributions made by employees, employers and self-employed contributions without government making any further contributions (except in its role as employer).

The money ‘saved’ by government will be used to finance the vote of health and care for the elderly who is currently financed through the national insurance fund. Consequently what will happen is the establishment of linkages of income sources with expenditure applications and no real saving per se. This is in line with what The Finance Minister had proposed in the 2002 budget speech. Once these linkages are established then they have to be maintained at a self-sufficient level.

How this can be done needs further study and elaboration but the principle needs to be established. Ultimately we should aim for a national health insurance scheme which guarantees top-level medical service to all, but renders subject to means testing/contributory insurance cover the entitlement to medicine, the entitlement to hospital accommodation and catering service, and the entitlement to out-patient services.

May be if viewed on this basis we can worry less about funding the pension non-crisis and apply more resources to keeping us healthy both during our work-life and during our pension age. I think it is realistic to assume that government can’t do both and prioritising is necessary.

 

Portfolio

Strategy 1: No Risk Lm 1006.276
Strategy 2: Medium Risk Lm 998.12 (after Lm40 charges)
Strategy 3: High Risk Lm Lm 1142.361(after Lm20 charges)
Strategy 4 High Risk For Currency . Lm 1015.10 (after Lm40 charges)

All prices and rates of exchange are the latest available on Saturday 16th August 2003.

All strategies moved forward but the highest gains were made by strategies 3 and 4 which have the highest content of equity holdings. Equities moved forward throughout the week and even the Maltacom share price which is reflected in Strategy 3 turned up again though it is still short of the highs of 2 weeks ago.

No changes were effected to the portfolio.

Alfred Mifsud

  

Kieku Konna California

Il-Kullhadd 

F’California f’Ottubru li gej ser jergghu jivvutaw jekk iridux ikomplu taht it-tregija tal-gvernatur demokratiku Gray Davis jew jekk iridux li jilhaq gvernatur gdid. Gray Davis kien elett gvernatur ta California l-ewwel darba fl-1997 u rega gie elett anqas minn sena ilu.

Biex isir dan intuzat procedura li kienet iddahhlet fil-ligi ta’ l-istat ta’ California sa mill-1911 li pero kullhadd kien nesa dwarha. Din maghrufa bhala recall tipporvdi li jekk miljun ruh jiffirmaw petizzjon li m’humiex kutetnti bit-tmexxija tal-gvernatur, ikollha ssir konsultazzjoni mil-gdid ma l-elettorat (ghalhekk recall) biex jigi deciz jekk il-poplu iridx jirrevedi il-mandat li kien ta qabel u li jkun ghadu ghaddej.

Hawn min jaqbel ma sistema bhal din u hawn min ma jaqbilx. Min jabel jargumenta li b’hekk il-poplu jkollu kontroll kontinwu fuq il-politici li jkun tella’ u mhux irid jistenna hames snin shah jekk l-affarijiet ikunu sejrin zmerc. Min ma jaqbilx jargumenta li min imexxi irid certu zmien ma tistax tiggudika gvern fl-ewwel xhur jew snin tieghu u trid tiggudikah fuq legizlatura shiha.

Nahseb li dan l-argument jaqa jew iqum skond kemm ikun ilu fil-kariga l-gvern. Jekk gvern ikun fl-ewwel legizlatura tieghu allura ma jkunx floku li joqghodu jsiru recalls tul l-ewwel legizlatura meta hafna drabi gvern jiret hafna problemi li jhallu ta’ qablu u li ma ghandux jehel bil-htija taghhom. Izda jekk bhal fil-kaz ta’ California il-Gvernatur kien ga f’postu qabel u ghamel hames snin shah u rega’ gie elett, il-problemi ma tantx jista jfarfarhom minn fuqu specjalment jekk bhal fil-kaz ta’ California l-istat qed igarrab zbilanci kbar, qed ikollu jhallas hafna aktar imghaxijiet biex jissellef ha jiffinazja d-deficit u jekk meta tela l-Gvernatur fl-1997 ma kien hemm xejn minn dawn il-problemi.

Il-poplu Californian, mhux biss permezz tal-petizzjoni tar-recall izda anke skond surveys ta’ l-opinjoni pubblika, m’hu kuntent xejn bit-tmexxija ta’ Gray Davis li jidher li mhux ikun iebes bizzejjed biex jikkontrolla d-deficit statali. Il-poplu Californian ihossu offiz li minhabba tmexxija laxka ta’ Davis ir-rating Agencies baxxew ir-rating tal-bonds ta’ California u b’rating baxx kwazi gew kategorizzati junk bonds – offizia ghal unur ta’ stat sinjur ta’ California li permezz ta l-industrija tal-films tieghu suppost jissimbolizza il-krema tas-sistema kapitalista.

Mur ara kieku hawn Malta konna California. Wara li domna xhur shah bejn il-budget ta’ Novembru 2002 u l-elezzjoni ta’ April 2003 nisimghu lill-gvern jassigurana li l-finanzi tal-pajjiz jinsabu fis-sod u li qed jitjiebu u li allura l-gvern mhux se jkollu problemi biex jiffinanzja l-impenji kbar li dahal ghalihom skond il-pakkett ta’ shubija fl-UE, lanqas lahaq ghadda xhar li l-verita ma bdietx tohrog. U l-verita kienet differenti hafna milli kienu pengew qabel l-elezzjoni.

Kienet differenti tant li meta hargu il-figuri finanzjarji ta’ Gunju, sewwa sew 104 jiem wara l-lezzjoni, il-gvern bla misthija kellu jammetti li l-budget kien mar il-bahar u li d-defict ta’ din is-sena se jkun hafna aktar minn dak previst.

Se jkun aktar minn Lm100 miljun qalulna, meta kienu pprogettaw Lm74 miljun. Aktar kemm? Jien kont ghamilt kalkolu car kif hareg il-budget u ghedt li l-budget ma jaghmilx sens ghax ma kienx qed jipprovdi ghal infieq li kien ga kommess. Kont ghedt li d-defict veru ta’ din is-sena se jkun Lm120 miljun u biex dan jintlahaq irridu ndahhlu Lm22 miljun fi grants mil-gvern taljan u mill-UE, xi haga li taf ittul ghax dawn il-fondi biex jingibdu huma soggetti ghal hafna burokrazija. Mela d-deficit ta’ din is-ena jaf ikun bejn Lm120 miljun u Lm142 miljun u mhux l-Lm74 miljun li vvinta l-gvern biex jidher sabih sa l-elezzjoni.

Kieku konna California kieku konna ndawru petizzjoni biex nzommu l-gvern resposnsabbli ghal weghdiet fierha li ghamel meta kien jaf li permezz taghhom kien qed jaghmel mizraprezentazzjoni tal-verita’ li kien jafha kull min ried ikun jafha, fosthom l-ewwel qabel kullhadd il-gvern stess.

Kieku konna California kieku konna ninsistu li l-gvern jerga jigi quddiem l-elettorat ha jaghti rendikont ta’ ghemilu u jerga’ joqghod ghal gudizzju tal-poplu. Izda m’ ahniex California. Ahna Malta fejn il-gvern jithalla jqarraq u jilghab bil-figuri u kollox jibqa’ ghaddej qisu ma gara xejn. Fejn il-poplu donnu ma ghadux kburi b’pajjizu u bih innifsu u kollox sar jghaddi qisu xejn. Mqar li konna Califronia.

California Dreaming

The Malta Independent 

 

As life slows down to enjoy the peak holiday period, where with everybody away from his desk, one cannot work even if one wanted to, I could be allowed a licence to dream of California.

Not the California dreaming 1968 type when flower power turned the tide of public opinion on America’s involvement in the Vietnam war and made 1968 the year when a new generation shaped new thinking in the electronic age. It is California dreaming version 2003 where a Governor returned to office merely months back has been recalled to face the electorate again through a forgotten and unused 1911 provision in the law providing for such recall meant to give power to the people when things do not work out quite as promised. A crisis in Californian state finances, amid growing dissatisfaction with incumbent governor Gray Davis's (Democrat) handling of it, is forcing a recall on October 7^th to decide whether the Governor can continue with his term and if not who should replace him.

Now just imagine if this California thinking were to be applied to Malta. Just imagine if people here where really to keep politicians accountable to their free-flowing promises before elections. Would you not agree that we have a more forceful case for a recall of the last election?

At least I can suggest two main reasons for a recall, one from each political camp. Let’s deal with the government recall first.

Would it not be proper if the government is recalled to keep itself accountable to the strong pre-election statements made, via billboards and all, that the state of public finances was in good solid shape? How can the electorate accept that it is treated with such contempt when the state of public finance has clearly and purposely been manipulated for partisan political gain?

The election was held on 12^th April on the pretext that state finances were in good shape and getting better and that a budget deficit of 4% GDP for 2003 was realistically achievable. Then on 9^th May 2003, less than a month later we get our first shock with the publication of the actual deficit figures for whole year 2002 and for the first quarter of 2003, which show significant adverse deviations from budgetary projections and pre-election affirmations. On 30^th May we get re-confirmation of this adverse reality when the April finance figures get published and the same thing happened on 27^th June when the May figures get published. Then on 25^th July 2003, a mere 104 days after the election, the June 2003 mid-year figure get published and the adverse deviation from budget is so glaring that the government is forced to admit that its budget had gone haywire.

The government would have us believe that the deviation was caused by domestic slowdown caused by the elections and by international slowdown caused Iraq war uncertainty. It would be unrealistic not to acknowledge these factors, but blaming them entirely for the sharp budgetary deterioration is just rubbing salt over the contempt wound.

The opposition could also be recalled to see why it needed to lose an election to accept EU membership reality and why it denied the many from the opportunity to vote for a change of government by presenting a mutually exclusive choice between a Labour government and EU membership.

As soon as the holiday season is over this dreaming stops and we return to reality that whilst Californians can recall their government for bad management in Malta we can’t even dream to recall our government for stark misrepresentation.

Is it because we do not have a Schwarzenegger amongst us?

Pension Crisis - What Crisis (Part I)

Maltastar 

 

We have been having a bombardment of rhetoric about the looming pension crisis. We are told that as the population ages the funding of pension obligation on a pay as you go system will get unmanageable as the number of beneficiaries increase, the length of benefit entitlement stretches as mortality age goes well past the 80’s, and as the number of those contributing stagnates through reduced birth rates following the post-war baby boom.

The government has set-up committees to study the situation but it seems that they are stuck in a state of eternal consideration. The Minister of Finance twice lost his temper on the issue. Once when in the budget speech for 2002 he laid down his own version for re-structuring the system. This had led to the resignation of the Chairman of the Pensions committee appointed by the Minister for Social Welfare. Recently soon after the election the Minister said that the situation can’t wait much further and he expected to announce the necessary tough measures by the end of last May. This obviously has not happened.

In this country we have crises of all kinds. We certainly have a crisis in our public finance where the deficit is spinning out of control and the public debt is accumulating at a rate much faster than that of economic growth. We have an environmental crisis that seems beyond our competence to control. We have a social crisis with abuse of alcohol and drugs. We have a crisis with most of our road and energy infrastructure. We have a crisis in the making with our health services when we truly find the cost of operating a monster like the new Tal-Qroqq hospital. Certainly we do not need to add a crisis where we do not really have one.

 

I am sure this may surprise many as occasionally I myself have been carried by the chorus of those professing the arrival of a pension tsunami in admitting the existence of such a crisis. But I have been having second thoughts.

Many have been suggesting the creation of structures for private pensions to supplement the national insurance pension structure. None has seriously suggested the opting out of the compulsory national insurance system given that the pay as you go nature of such a system would not permit such opting out without risking a collapse and a social crisis.

Those whose annual income exceeds Lm7000 would need such supplementary pensions systems. For these the maximum state pension of Lm4600 would not fit well within the two-thirds ratio on which the pension system was originally built.

At a time when the state can’t cope with its social commitments to those in real need and we are hearing talks of dismantling or downgrading the social structure to roll it back to affordable level, why should the state give fiscal incentives for those earning more than Lm7000 to entice them to provide for supplementary pension schemes to sustain their pension income beyond the maximum national pension?

There is nothing to stop such persons from saving for their pension days. Many have been doing it through savings, investments or life insurance arrangements. They have not had any fiscal rebates for so doing beyond the lower withholding tax applicable for income on such savings or investments.

I maintain that the introduction of other compulsory or fiscally driven supplementary pension schemes could lead to an over-saving situation and could possibly increase the pressure for wage increases risking loss of competitiveness. This will be particularly so if benchmark employers like the government are forced to contribute to such supplementary pension schemes adding to their supplementary labour costs without increasing the take-home pay of their employees.

And there are more arguments against the existence of the supposed pension crisis. Many people in command of an income which would limit them to the maximum state pension short of an effective two-thirds benchmark, are probably home-owners. They have probably serviced a house-loan/mortgage for a long number of years so they will have full equity in their property residence upon or before going on pension.

Is saving through investment in residential real estate any less effective for pension purposes than saving in other forms of assets, whether financial (like bank deposits and bonds) or real (like equities). If anything local experience shows with consistency that real estate has over a long term period been a winner strategy for investors in many cases delivering returns superior to financial or equity investments.

So my question is why should such people be made to save for pension three times – once by paying for the pay as you go national insurance, a second time by servicing a mortgage to have a debt free residential property upon retirement and a third time through fiscal pushing towards supplementary pension schemes?

Portfolio

Strategy 1: No Risk Lm 1005.705
Strategy 2: Medium Risk Lm 991.420 (after Lm40 charges)
Strategy 3: High Risk Lm Lm 1094.445 (after Lm20 charges)
Strategy 4 High Risk For Currency . Lm 986.270 (after Lm40 charges)

All prices and rates of exchange are the latest available on Saturday 9th August 2003.

Strategy 3 lost most of the sharp gain of the previous week as Maltacom share price retracted most of the gains registered. Strategy 1 continued to accumulate interest at 3.5%.

Strategies 2 & 4 both fell as the risk of an interest rate reversal depressed both bonds and shares and tech stocks ( to which strategy 4 is particularly exposed) were further depressed by some bad news from Cisco.

Overall the news from the international economy remains positive and as the risk of interest rate reversal starts being put in perspective, equities may be expected to perform better after the august lull.

Something`s Wrong

The Malta Independent on Sunday 

 
Something must be wrong, very wrong, when we experience a situation where the English language media criticises the government on its public finance performance more effectively than the opposition.

In fact it is doubly wrong. Firstly it is very bad for good housekeeping and very bad for true democracy if we accept as if nothing the assurances given pre-election that government finances are in good shape and getting better (remember the billboard of the young handsome boy beaming his confident smile as he sat on his dad`s broad shoulders) and than we find out a mere 100 days after the election that reality points in the opposite direction. Secondly it is very bad that the opposition is still so traumatised` that it cannot find the energy to make a feast of this gross misrepresentation and allows the government-friendly English media to overtake it in this role.

Let`s get the facts clear first. Since the assurances given to us pre-election, nothing has happened to justify the gross deviation from the budget.` In making the representation that government finances were in good shape the government knew well that this is not so. It was in a position better than anybody else to know the factual reality about the state of public finances and it purposely and deliberately chose to misrepresent it. 

Just in case anybody points a finger accusing me of being wise after the event, this is how I had criticised the budget last December soon after its publication

‘The true deficit for next year is more like Lm113 million (as against the official Lm74million) and that only if new tax measures generating Lm6 million are announced out of budget. …..With this budget the Minister means to fudge the real issues and limp to the next election which will clearly come before the deficiency of the budget will have time to emerge.’

Reality is that the current size of the deficit was already there when the budget was being put together. It was already there when the billboard assuring us on the healthy state of public finance was being put up. It was clear then as it is clear now that the budget was put together artificially to look decent until the election. Expenditure did not overshoot the budget. The budget was purposely undershooting expenditure already committed. Now the truth is emerging with vengeance.

Unfortunately many people do not make the connection between the state of public finance and their personal lifestyle and well-being.` We have lived for far too long in a culture where the disconnection between the government and the individual is all-pervasive except when favours are needed in exchange for votes. Many however believe that the public deficit and the national debt are problems of the government that need not concern the individual.

The moment we join the EU we will get a belated wake-up call to shake off this lethargy and start making the connection as EU rules force us to adopt good housekeeping benchmarks in the running of our domestic financial affairs.` The farther we drift away from the Maastricht criteria for Euro adoption the more painful will the adjustment process be if we really mean to take EU membership seriously and stop cooking things in our short-sighted way.

So the drift in public finance will sooner or later translate itself in higher taxes, cuts in social spending, cuts in government employment and state subsidies, lower economic growth, higher domestic interest rates, a weaker currency and a cocktail of other measures meant to make up for past excesses of over-consumption and cut us back to a size that would make us again competitive in a single EU market and a globalised world.

So it is imperative that the government be held accountable to its pre-election promises, statements and declarations.` The media and the opposition must continue to demand accountability from the government and the PN for the gross misrepresentation made in the presentation of the last budget and for the setting up of the billboard above referred to. Was the election perfectly timed for spring before the final real figures for 2002 and the first finance figures for 2003 expose the reality when they get normally published starting from the last week of April? 

Unless we accept lightly being treated with contempt, we should insist on a full and independent investigation being launched if necessary under the aegis of the President of the Republic who may give instructions in this sense to MFSA as the regulator of financial services, and the Central Bank as the body responsible for financial stability.

And where does the opposition stand in all this Coming so soon after the election it is to be expected that the opposition should make a feast of the issue and go much beyond a mere holding of a press conference and a few articles by individual contributors in the press. The government has called for consensus over the matter realising that a true and lasting solution is beyond its sole powers. Probably government consensus is motivated by its wish to share the burden of the tough measures necessary to work public finances back to sanity. Be as it may the opposition has an opportunity to negotiate its acceptance by extending the consensus into other areas where it is grossly disadvantaged.

It is unfortunate that the opposition is still too busy with its internal post-election trauma. It needs to persuade the left side of the party why it is unavoidable that the new reality of EU membership must be accepted as irreversible, and the right side of the party as to why it was necessary to lose an election to come to such a conclusion. Unless the opposition emerges from its trauma quickly under a revitalised leadership that can give credibility to its new policy content, this country may have to rely on the media to keep a tab on an increasingly arrogant and complacent government that thinks that it can continue to avoid being held accountable for its performance or lack of it.

Nixfa ta` Investiment

Il-Kullhadd 

 

Biex pajjizna jmur il-quddiem jehtieg jitkattar l-investiment. Minghajr investiment il-pajjiz jistagna u la ma jmurx `l quddiem f`dinja fejn pajjizi ohra ikunu mexjin `l quddiem, allura pajjizna jmur lura.

L-investiment jigi fi tlett kategoriji principali. L-ewwel ghandek l-investiment produttiv. Dan huwa investiment li jsir biex irendi ekonomikament b`mod dirett.` Min jaghmlu jara kemm ser jonfoq u jizgura sa fejn ikun possibbli li jkollu introjtu fuq medda ta` zmien li mhux biss irendi lura l-investiment originali izda li wkoll ihalli qliegh li jiggustifika r-riskji li jkun fih il-progett.

Dan it-tip ta` investiment normalment isir mis-settur privat. Izda l-privat jaghmel dan biss jekk ikollu fiducja fit-tmexxija ekonomika tal-pajjiz, jekk ikollu incentivi biex jagevolaw il-qliegh ta` l-investiment, kif ukoll jekk isib rizorsi ohra mehtiega,` bhal haddiema mharrga u lesti jahdmu b`mod flessibbli, biex l-investiment jirnexxi.

Hemm imbaghad l-investiment infrastrutturali. Dan jinvolvi investiment fit-toroq, fil-generazzjoni ta` l-energija u affarijiet simili li jaghtu qafas sod fuq x`hiex jinbena l-investiment produttiv. Jekk il-pajjiz ma jkollux provvista regolari u tajba ta` energija u ilma jew jekk it-toroq ma jippermettux cirkolazjoni tajba tan-nies u t-traffiku, ma jigix attirat investiment produttiv. L-investiment infrastrutturali jaghmlu l-gvern u biex dan isir il-gvern irid ikun f`qaghda finanzjarja li tippermetti li dan isir. Hafna drabi l-gvern juza investimenti bhal dawn biex waqt li joffri qafas tajjeb ghall-ekonomija, l-ezekuzzjoni stess ta` dawn il-progetti tiggenera attivta` ekonomika li timbotta it-tkabbir ta` l-ekonomija.

Fl-ahhar hemm l-investiment socjali.  Dan isir fi progetti li ma jhallux qliegh izda li jtejjbu il-kwalita tal-hajja tac-cittadini. Dan huwa investiment fl-iskejjel, sptarijiet u housing li skond il-politka socjali tal-gvern joffru s-servizzi taghhom jew b`xejn jew bi prezz sussidjat halli min ma jistax xorta ikollu access ghal dawn is-servizzi bazaci.

L-investiment infrastrutturali u socjali f`pajizna baqa` ghaddej ghax dan jiddependi mill-gvern u l-gvern nazzjonalista biex jonfoq jinqala` u jinqala sew. Min ghandu ghajnejn biex jara jara li filwaqt li dan l-investiment hafna drabi kien mehtieg rari il-poplu ha valur tajjeb ghal flus li nvesta ghax jew intefqu flus hafna aktar milli verament kien hemm bzonn (ez. L-isptar tal-Qroqq) jew l-investiment ma tax ir-rizultati li kienu mweghda (il-power station ta` Delimara).

Fejn jidhol l-aktar tip ta` investiment importanti izda ghadna l-bahar.` L-investiment produttiv li johloq l-impjiegi ma tantx jidher. Isir investiment minn kumpaniji privati li ga qedin hawn, hafna minnhom gew taht amministrazzjoni laburista tas-snin 70 u 80, li jkomplu jizviluppaw ghax jibzghu ghall-aktar investiment prezzjuz li ghandhom fil-haddiema mharrga Maltin li kapaci jkunu produttivi daqs jew aktar minn kullhadd meta jitmexxew sewwa.` Izda investiment gdid li johloq hafna xoghol ma naraw kwazi xejn.

Tajjeb li ninvestu fl-infrastruttura. Tajjeb ukoll li ninvestu fl-affarjiet socjali. Izda dawn jistghu biss jigu sostnuti jekk maghhom u daqshom isir investiment produttiv li jiggenera x-xoghol, ikabbar l-ekonomija u jzid l-esportazzjoni.

L-akbar weghda li ghamlu n-nazzjonalisti dwar l-UE hija li b`hekk ser nattiraw aktar investiment. Pajjizi ex-komunisti tal-Lvant li ghandhom vantagg gejografiku u vantagg ta spejjez aktar baxxi, dan l-influss ta` investiment esperjenzawh anke waqt li ghadhom qed ihejju ghas-shubija. Ahna minn dan ma rajna xejn.

Iz-zmien huwa l-akbar gharef. Naghtu cans ha naraw jekk issa li l-poplu ddecieda kif iddecieda ma hawn`x aktar dibattitu dwar barra jew gewwa fl-UE, naraw issa jekk dan l-investiment jigix.

Jien xorta nsostni li biex jigi l-investiment jehtieg li l-ewwel nirrangaw hafna affarijiet pajjizna jerga jsir kompettiv. Dan jiddependi minna ghalkemm id-dixxiplina ta` l-UE taf timbuttana biex niehdu certi nizuri iebsin li s`issa bzajna minnhom. Izda l-futur taghna irridu naghmluh ahna. Hadd m`hu se jtiehulna fuq platt tal-fidda.   

Torturing Taxpayers

The Malta Independent 

Is there no end to torture for taxpayers? After seeing systems being sharpened to ensure that all tax dues are extracted instantly, after having tax breaks on fringe benefits practically removed, after enduring the collapse of tax brackets causing the highest marginal rate of tax to be reached at an earlier point in the progression of income, after seeing most government services being hiked up in price, the taxpayer was expecting a respite. This was more than a reasonable expectation seeing that a PN election billboard assured us that government finances were in good shape.

But revelation that government finances are (and I hasten to add have been for several years) in a crisis removes hopes for respite and darkens the prospect for further tax torture given that the government has assumed expensive obligations of compliance for EU membership.

That is bad enough as it is. But what absolutely blew my top off this week is revelation by Maltapost Chief Executive that “The government has decided to assist Maltapost in their reforms and agreed to absorb 160 ex-government employees”.

In assisting Maltapost to take back 160 employees government is committing itself to fund a further expenditure of around Lm1 million. These workers are clearly unneeded for the operation of government service. If anything government needs to trim its own workforce in the grades that these employees can fit into.

Maltapost is owned 60% by government and 40% by NZ interest. The NZ company have full control of Maltapost operation through a management agreement. They get paid handsome management fees for running the company and in fact the privatisation of their equity stake produced no revenue for the State as its value was bartered against the management fees and capitalised into the company. So the NZ shareholders made little or no cash investment in Maltapost and they certainly did not put their money where their mouth is. They can only win from their participation in Maltapost. They have nothing to lose except their reputation which in any event is far from stellar.

So why may I ask, should the government take on itself a financial obligation of Lm1 million to relieve the pressure from Maltapost to restructure without government subsidies? Taking on unneeded workers is pure and simple subsidy by the backhand.

Maltapost registered a loss of Lm83 k for financial year to Sept 2002 and expects to slip into profitability during financial year to September 2004 if it gets relieved of 160 employees on its payroll. So basically we are being told that Maltapost can only achieved profitability if the Maltese taxpayer shoulders the burden of 160 employees.

There is something odd. When Maltapost was created in May 1998 it went into immediate operating profit although it had 900 employees, the postage charge was 17% cheaper than it is today and government was being given a 60% rebate on its own postage bill. When in the course of privatisation of Mid-Med Bank the government bought back the latter’s 45% equity holding in Maltapost it paid a premium over the nominal price reflecting the profit accumulated till then (April-June 1999).

So why should Maltapost with 774 employees rather than 900, with a higher postage rate, with over-milking of the philately potential, with government paying normal postage rates for its requirement, and with exceptional postal volume generated by the dual election campaign, still be out of profit in financial year 2003 and requires state assistance to achieve profitability in 2004? Why should the Maltese taxpayer ease Maltapost into profitability net of the lucrative management fees that the NZ team are charging the company?

What specialisation is needed to run a monopoly with a free ticket to cut costs by dumping unwanted personnel on the Maltese taxpayers’ bill? Is my memory failing me recalling promises of attraction of international postal business to keep all employees productively occupied and justify the NZ management fees? Who’s defending the taxpayer?

Ghaqda

L-Orizzont 

 

Aktar ma johorgu fatti u figuri li juru f’liema stat tal-biki jinsab jih il-pajjiz aktar tugghani qalbi. Ghax kif inhuwa possibbli li quddiem dan is-saram kollu, saram li jaf bih kullhadd ghax spejgajnih bil-fatti u l-figuri, l-poplu Malti f’elezzjoni jerga’ jaghzel lil min holoq is-saram u mhux lil min fetahlu ghajnejh dwaru?

Hargu l-figuri tal-finanzi tal-gvern sa Gunju. Tal-wahx! Anke l-Minsitru Dalli kellu jammetti li l-budget ta’ din is-sena mar il-bahar u li d-deficit ser jisplodi. Min emmen il-billboard li l-finanzi tal-gvern jinsabu fis-sod tassew haqqu karrotta. Ftit emmuh! Izda ‘l hafna xorta ivvutaw lil min huwa l-kagun ta’ dan l-isfrattu. Sfrattu finanzjarju li jipperikola il-valur tal-paga, tal-pensjoni u tas-servizzi socjali.

Jien ma nemminx li l-poplu Malti bahnan. Ma tistax tassumi li kullhadd hazin u ahna tajbin u nibqghu nitilfu elezzjoni wara ‘l ohra sa ma fl-ahhar kullhadd jiskopri l-verita fina. Jekk naghmlu hekk nixjiehu fl-oppozizzjoni.

Ghax inqajjem argumenti bhal dawn fi zmien meta qed naraw il-kif u l-ghala tlifna elezzjoni ohra, halli nkunu nistghu nibnu fis-sod, nigi kkritikat b’mod dirett jew indirett li jien qed ntellef l-ghaqda fil-partit. Skond dawn ma ghandna naghmlu xejn u nzommu l-ghaqda billi nsostnu li ahna tajbin u l-poplu iblah.

Ma naqbilx la li l-poplu iblah u lanqas li l-kritika u l-analizi ttellef l-ghaqda. Inkella jkollna l-ghaqda u l-konsensus tac-cimiterju.

Jibqghu zewg argumenti validi li jsiru u li nhoss li tajjeb nirrejagixxi ghalihom. L-ewwel l-argument li din il-kritika ghandha ssir internament u t-tieni li fl-ahhar mill-ahhar trid issir ir-rieda tal-magguranza u min ma joqghodx ghar-rieda tal-maggurnaza skond il-principji tad-demokrazija m’hemmx lok ghalih fil-partit.

Ma dawn l-argumenti naqbel perfettament, izda immur oltre. Id-demokrazija jehtieg li tigi rispettata dejjem anke fil-process ta’ l-ghazla tal-leadership. Dan ma sarx. Ezawrejt il-mezzi kollha biex nfiehem dan bil-kwiet internament. Ghalhekk ma nistax f’isem l-istess demokrazija naccetta it-tradiment taghha.

Kullhadd jaqbel li ghandha ssir analizi profonda dwar x’hemm hazin fil-partit li qed igieghelna nitilfu elezzjoni wara ohra anke meta vantaggjati minn konfront ma gvern ghajjien u skadut. Din l-analizi qed issir u l-kontribut tieghi lejha tajtu. Izda jien ma nifhimx kif thalla li jsir il-process ta’ l-ghazla tal-Leader ghal hames snin li gejjin qabel ma ssir l-analizi. Jekk dan mhux kontra l-istatut zgur huwa kontra r-raguni. U ma kien hemm xejn xi jzomm li nimxu kemm skond l-istatut kif ukoll skond ir-raguni.

Meta tkellimt internament qaluli xott xott li kollox qed isir skond l-istatut u li d-decizjoni ittiehdet mill-Ezekuttiv Nazzjonali. Din nofs verita’. U nofs verita hija aghar minn gidba. Ghax veru li l-ezekuttiv nazzjonali iddecieda li ssir l-elezzjoni tal-Leader qabel l-analizi. Izda dan sar meta l-Leader kien ghamilha cara li mhux ser jikkontesta. Bir-ragun l-ezekuttiv nazzjonali ma setax jipposponi l-elezzjoni meta l-Leader kien ghamilha cara li jixtieq jirtira. X’naghmlu, nibqghu bla Leader?

Izda meta l-Leader bidel fehmtu wara li b’mod imprudenti intuzaw il-mezzi tal-partit biex jaghtuh vantagg car u qawwi ghal kuntest tal-leadership, hadd ma rega ressaq id-decizjoni mil-gdid quddiem l-ezekuttiv. Ippruvajt jien nikkonvinci bil-kwiet, fil-maghluq, bil-kelma t-tajba li ma jaghmilx sens li ssir l-elezzjoni tal-leadership qabel l-analizi galadarba l-leader kien bidel fehmtu u kien ser jikkontesta. Ippruvajt infiehem li l-ezekuttiv ghandu jerga jinghata cans jirrevedi d-decizjoni tieghu li kienet saret fuq premessa falza. Izda min kien ghalaq ghajnejh ghall-uzu imprudenti tar-rizorsi tal-partit ma ridx li jsir dan.

Rebhet il-procedura fuq ir-raguni. Ghax meta kellek cirkostanzi bhal dawn il-kontest tal-leadership gie ristrett immens. Kellek nies li kienu qed ilestu ghal kuntest li meta raw il-buzulotti ta’ l-ewwel ta’ Mejju rega’ bdielhom. Resqu lura ghax kien car li kuntest kien se jkun zlugat.

Nista’ noqghod kwiet mmur incapcap lil Leader ha nidher helu. Niftakar izda li kif toqrob elezzjoni ohra dawn l-affarijiet johroguhom l-avversarji taghna ha jaghmlu hsara massima lill-partit. Jergghu jirbhulna elezzjoni ghax inkunu qed nikkompetu bil-piz ma saqajna ta’ Leader li lahaq b’mod kuntenzjuz. U nergghu nitilfu l-lezzjoni. U z-zghir ikompli jbati. U l-laburist ikompli jaqlaghha fuq rasu. U n-nazzjonalisti tkompli tikbrilhom rashom ghax jahsbu li l-gvern taghhom b’cens perpetwu.

Facli toqghod kwiet. Izda ghax facli ma jfiissirx li huwa sewwa. U l-kwiet biex inzommu l-ghaqda ma jfissirx li huwa sewwa jekk mitmermru maghqudin fl-oppozizzjoni. L-ghaqda tigi mis-sewwa u s-sewwa tehtieg li l-affarijiet isiru bir-raguni. Ghax inkella l-kritika taghna lejn il-gvern ma tkunx kredibbli u nazzjonalisti jkomplu jigu eletti bis-sahha taghna aktar milli bis-sahha taghhom.

U kif tkompli tohrog l-inkompetenza tal-gvern tugghek aktar qalbek u terga tistaqsi x’hemm tant hazin fina biex nitilfu kontra inkompetenza bhal din?