The Soft Side of the Referendum

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As the referendum campaign gets harder and harder perhaps it will do good for the mind and the soul to analyse some softer aspects of the whole campaign.

I cannot but get amused at two psychological factors that are creeping into the campaign much more than the respective party strategists would probably be ready to admit. These psychological factors are working inversely from their intended purpose and could well reinforce the other party`s case rather than that of the strategists behind the respective campaign.

Take Labour`s hard criticism of the country`s economic performance. The shaper and harder the criticism is, the lamer and feebler government`s defence to such criticism, the firmer develops in people mind the opinion that we need the external discipline of the EU to sort out our state of economic degradation.

`Perhaps Labour critics, myself included should take a brief break from explaining the dire economic problems we are facing, and in the run-up to the referendum take a longer-term view of the economic progress registered since independence.` Is it not a living contradiction that psychological factors could turn government`s extreme weakness in the management of domestic affairs as its strongest point for arguing in favour of the Yes in the EU referendum Perhaps Labour critics, myself included should take a brief break from explaining the dire economic problems we are facing, and in the run-up to the referendum take a longer-term view of the economic progress registered since independence.` Saving criticism on the current state of economy for the election campaign would probably be wise.

On the other side of the spectrum there are counter-balancing psychological elements which the PN is using counter-productively. The whole thrust of their campaign is built on the media.` The PN are avoiding the details and just presenting the EU issue as an act of faith. Something we ought not to reason out but just believe in. Something we just have to follow blindly because every other country is doing it and that really there exist no alternatives to it.

This argument sold well in the build-up to the campaign but in the campaign itself it is fizzling out. As Labour continues to build its campaign on the specifics, easily identifying those sectors that will be disadvantaged by the application of EU rules once Malta gets into membership, the electorate is no longer ready to buy into the easy rhetoric and is stopping to pause and reflect on the specifics.

And having well instilled in people`s mind that it is not all fun and games inside the EU people are reacting counter-productively to the increasing bombardment that the EU is the easy solution to all our problems; that we have to take it as an act of faith, not of reason. `March 8th the state of indecision will just continue till the good sense of calling a general election prevails.`

And the more rhetoric assurances people receive from the Yes camp that they have nothing to worry about, and the more EU emissaries come here to tell us what a fine job our negotiators did and how this package can in no way be improved upon, that by saying no we could be missing the last train to heaven, the electorate is if anything getting ever more suspicious.

So from a Labour`s perspective I feel that the PN`s campaign, billboards and all, avoiding the specifics that Labour are throwing up with impressive regularity, and remaining on generic assertions that we should believe in EU membership as we believe in God Almighty, will back-fire. Voters don`t trust humans the same way they trust the Almighty!

Or could it be that the two psychological contradictions will just cancel themselves out.

Then there is the soft aspect of how to interpret the referendum result.` Labour`s decision to give a three choice option to its followers means that the referendum cannot be just decided by a simple count of the `yes` and `no` votes. Unless the `yes` votes scores 50% + 1 of the total eligible votes (something the `no` votes cannot hope to achieve once Labour agreed to split their vote), the result will be open to all interpretations but not to firm conclusions.

Which means that after March 8th the state of indecision will just continue till the good sense of calling a general election prevails.